ATL: HANNA - Models

[Steve]

Oh ****, HRRR is bombing the squat out of South Padre, Harlingen, Brownsville, Matamoros and other towns in an around the tip of Texas and the state of Tamaulipas. That's a good 12-18 hour beating for some people. At that point - saying after 7 or 8pm tomorrow night, it's on for down there if the HRRR is right - which it generally is.

Run this model if you haven't looked at it yet (00Z HRRR on IR Simulatoin)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2400&fh=29

Here's a still shot for 6am Saturday morning. That's pretty hardcore...

[Astromanía]

The good thing always with those systems is that the state's dams are full after all the rain, and that help us because the whole city has a potable water deficiency due to the increase of the population with time and due to the fact the city it's in a semidesert enviroment

[Steve]

I haven't looked at the NAMs yet, but I'm about to. Since the HRRR is only released to 36 hours, I want to see what happens with the piece of energy left behind across the northern gulf into 60-72 hours and see any of the models continue to show that persisting and closing off. Rainfall rates will be cool to check out too. Remember, for several days GFS has been saying little rainfall with the system. It's been the outlier at least through 12z today. Also, I want to see how long some of the models might want to spin 8 at the coast. I'll check back in a bit.

[Steve]

lol at GFS. This is pretty bad. I know the resolution isn't tight, but c'mon man. This is bottom rung, Clipper Model level stuff.

36 hours - not much

[Steve]

GFS finally figured out there'd be more than 2" of accumulated rainfall in South Texas. It's still grossly underestimating rainfall, but it rains much farther inland than the other models based on how it has the high pressure in TX/OK north of landfall.



GFS Rainfall through 96 hours. Note the band heading into and across SELA. I'm in NWFL, but it looks like there's a chance for some heavy feeder moisture well east of the system. That sometimes happens with systems off the South Texas Coast. It wouldn't be the first time a TS down there flooded us out. I'll post rainfall totals off the ICON, NAM and then CMC when it runs.

[Steve]

ICON through 96:


^^ Note how much closer to the coast the rainfall is.

NAM 12km


^^ Note that the NAM has the heaviest rainfall in South Texas and gets the rainfall farther ashore than the ICON.

[Steve]

Last rainfall model for me. I'll stick around and post a couple pics from HMON and HWRF, but I'm going to bed after that.

CMC keeps refiring the rain offshore. I think it's got the right idea about the rainfall totals, but I'm not sure if they're not a bit more inland. It has a weaker secondary low which now forms around the MS Gulf Coast in about 3 days and moves NE through Alabama. It won't be classified, but it will be on the map (you'd have to run the model to see it).

[catskillfire51]

Last rainfall model for me. I'll stick around and post a couple pics from HMON and HWRF, but I'm going to bed after that.

CMC keeps refiring the rain offshore. I think it's got the right idea about the rainfall totals, but I'm not sure if they're not a bit more inland. It has a weaker secondary low which now forms around the MS Gulf Coast in about 3 days and moves NE through Alabama. It won't be classified, but it will be on the map (you'd have to run the model to see it).
https://i.imgur.com/DBBTr1k.png

I've followed storms for awhile but I am not well educated at all when it comes to understanding them. I remember when harvey hit the rain bands ended up wrapping around, luckily missing us. Is it surprising to you that even as the CMC and other models make landfall the heaviest rains stay off shore and don't end up wrapping around?

[Steve]

Last rainfall model for me. I'll stick around and post a couple pics from HMON and HWRF, but I'm going to bed after that.

CMC keeps refiring the rain offshore. I think it's got the right idea about the rainfall totals, but I'm not sure if they're not a bit more inland. It has a weaker secondary low which now forms around the MS Gulf Coast in about 3 days and moves NE through Alabama. It won't be classified, but it will be on the map (you'd have to run the model to see it).
https://i.imgur.com/DBBTr1k.png

I've followed storms for awhile but I am not well educated at all when it comes to understanding them. I remember when harvey hit the rain bands ended up wrapping around, luckily missing us. Is it surprising to you that even as the CMC and other models make landfall the heaviest rains stay off shore and don't end up wrapping around?

I would say it doesn't surprise me because that's the way it usually goes. Besides bands rotating through, a lot of the the rain is shallow and mostly stays offshore. Sometimes it will come inland and then die off and re-fire offshore. So you can generally expect more rain over the ocean or gulf. CMC has an eastern weighted depiction and moves SSW/SW through Texas (it's not the models thread, but here's the link and you can see how it's weighted.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 72400&fh=6

If it had the heaviest bands oriented to the north moving east to west, then that's where the rain's going to be. Some of the 12 and 18z models showed a south weighed system. This run of the CMC likes the heaviest rain on the east.

[Steve]

Close to bed, but I said I'd wait up for the hurricane models. Here's landfall on the HMON at 10:00am Saturday at 987.



btw, sorry about the HWRF. It didn't update yet on TT, and I'm going to bed.

[Astromanía]

Wow GFS and EURO say the worst amount of rainfall will be in my state, ICON also sent a big amount of rain, I need to be prepared, I wasn't expecting this

[Astromanía]

Wow 315mm expected for my area according to GFS

[StruThiO]

be safe friend.

[Astromanía]

be safe friend.

I will, thank god I don't have to work those days, I will be secure in my house, unffortunately many people still don't know what is about to come

[Astromanía]

So far models are telling me this will be far worse than Fernand 2019

[Hypercane_Kyle]

FWIW, HWRF is by far the strongest in terms of intensity with this system.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 4878262273

[Stormcenter]

Would it be safe to say the models did a very poor job anticipating Hanna less than a week or so out? I mean none of them even showed a depression in for today or
anytime this week last weekend.

[tropicwatch]

Wrong thread sorry.

[Steve]

Would it be safe to say the models did a very poor job anticipating Hanna less than a week or so out? I mean none of them even showed a depression in for today or
anytime this week last weekend.

Not really fair. There were plenty of models showing it, just not the typical ones we look to. CMC has had it and ICON has been on it from the beginning. NAM 12km and 3km and of course in the short term, the HRRR. However, the EC was spotty, and the GFS pretty much missed it all along and is still out there on it. Although to the GFS's credit, it does show more than one isobar (got about 4 now). You can go to Tidbits and run models back up to 7 days and see what I'm talking about. We've been covering it in this thread and originally in Talkin Tropics, but you probably don't want to go that far back on this.

[lrak]

Would it be safe to say the models did a very poor job anticipating Hanna less than a week or so out? I mean none of them even showed a depression in for today or
anytime this week last weekend.

I remember our local TV meteorologist last Monday said nothing to worry about....now worries.