EPAC: DOUGLAS - Remnants
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane
Anyone have plots comparing Douglas's actually track vs. the NHC's?
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane
EP, 08, 2020072400, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1380W, 115, 954, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 80, 50, 70, 1010, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 08, 2020072400, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1380W, 115, 954, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 30, 40, 1010, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 08, 2020072400, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1380W, 115, 954, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 25, 1010, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 08, 2020072400, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1380W, 115, 954, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 30, 40, 1010, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 08, 2020072400, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1380W, 115, 954, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 25, 1010, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane
Yellow Evan wrote:EP, 08, 2020072400, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1380W, 115, 954, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 80, 50, 70, 1010, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 08, 2020072400, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1380W, 115, 954, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 30, 40, 1010, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 08, 2020072400, , BEST, 0, 146N, 1380W, 115, 954, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 25, 1010, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, DOUGLAS, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
115 kt is still too low for a system with a +18 C eye and a nearly full W ring.
At least he’s a Cat 4, though.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane
My best guess is that this is 135 kt.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Astromanía
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CrazyC83
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 JUL 2020 Time : 005031 UTC
Lat : 14:45:36 N Lon : 138:13:47 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 951.2mb/112.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.1 6.1
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km
Center Temp : +19.7C Cloud Region Temp : -64.1C
Scene Type : EYE
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 70nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES17
Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.3 degrees
****************************************************
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 JUL 2020 Time : 005031 UTC
Lat : 14:45:36 N Lon : 138:13:47 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 951.2mb/112.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.1 6.1
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km
Center Temp : +19.7C Cloud Region Temp : -64.1C
Scene Type : EYE
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 70nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb
Satellite Name : GOES17
Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.3 degrees
****************************************************
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CrazyC83
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane
Black ring with some white showing up on Dvorak - I would say 120 kt given that structure.
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bob rulz
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane
Never seen a cat 3 look like this, surely NHC has to upgrade to cat 4 next advisory.
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane
I'd give him 130kts/927mb right now. I don't think he's quite to Cat 5 yet. Tonight is probably his peak. He's heading for cooler waters and he's not giving evidence for developing a more stable, annular like structure so it'll be harder for him to survive with the more latitude he gains.
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DorkyMcDorkface
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane
My name is being used for a cat 4 
I almost feel honored, haha. I remember DioBrando feeling the same way with Lorenzo last year, lol.
I almost feel honored, haha. I remember DioBrando feeling the same way with Lorenzo last year, lol.
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Please note the thougths expressed by this account are solely those of the user and are from a hobbyist perspective. For more comprehensive analysis, consult an actual professional meteorologist or meteorology agency.
Floyd 1999 | Isabel 2003 | Hanna 2008 | Irene 2011 | Sandy 2012 | Isaias 2020
Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane
Damn dude, this might just skip Cat 4 and go to 5! Looks like he's making a run at 160 mph, what a monster! Holy cow! Man, Hawaii better start taking this guy seriously!
Last edited by FireRat on Thu Jul 23, 2020 10:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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AnnularCane
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Re: EPAC: DOUGLAS - Hurricane
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:My name is being used for a cat 4
I almost feel honored, haha. I remember DioBrando feeling the same way with Lorenzo last year, lol.
My name was nearly a 5 last year.
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