Strong Tropical Wave SSE of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 92L)
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- ColdMiser123
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa
Many landfalls on the 12z EPS from New England to the Gulf.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa
SFLcane wrote:12z EPS has still active with several members into FL also into GOM.
https://freeimage.host/i/dzifzQ
https://freeimage.host/i/dziFmx
https://freeimage.host/i/dzi3ej
The images did not open.
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa
cycloneye wrote:SFLcane wrote:12z EPS has still active with several members into FL also into GOM.
https://freeimage.host/i/dzifzQ
https://freeimage.host/i/dziFmx
https://freeimage.host/i/dzi3ej
The images did not open.
Hi Luis,
Let’s try this again.



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Re: Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa
SFLcane wrote:cycloneye wrote:SFLcane wrote:12z EPS has still active with several members into FL also into GOM.
https://freeimage.host/i/dzifzQ
https://freeimage.host/i/dziFmx
https://freeimage.host/i/dzi3ej
The images did not open.
Hi Luis,
Let’s try this again.
https://iili.io/dzifzQ.png
https://iili.io/dziFmx.png
https://iili.io/dzi3ej.png
Would you happen to have the Spaghetti models of the 12z EPS Ensembles on this wave SFLcane?
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- cycloneye
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa
Spaghetti.


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Re: Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa
TheStormExpert wrote:SFLcane wrote:cycloneye wrote:
The images did not open.
Hi Luis,
Let’s try this again.
https://iili.io/dzifzQ.png
https://iili.io/dziFmx.png
https://iili.io/dzi3ej.png
Would you happen to have the Spaghetti models of the 12z EPS Ensembles on this wave SFLcane?
Hi sure,

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- toad strangler
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa
lemonade


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- toad strangler
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa
I wouldn't want to be the dude still sticking to his bearish guns this go around. Escape that agenda while you can still save some of your credibility.
http://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1286366444230447109

http://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1286366444230447109
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa
The GFS refuses to develop this wave at least out through a week the run is out so far. The main culprit looks to be the fact the wave gets suffocated by a very dry airmass. You can see the white area where the wave is at traversing the MDR in the South-Central Atlantic. It makes climatological sense. We shall see...


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Re: Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa
These models are all over the place with development or without. I wonder if the pandemic has something to do with it?
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1286394605920030729
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1286394605920030729
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- cycloneye
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is expected
to move westward across the tropical Atlantic during the next
several days. Some development of this system is possible early
next week when it reaches the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
to move westward across the tropical Atlantic during the next
several days. Some development of this system is possible early
next week when it reaches the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

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- SFLcane
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa
cycloneye wrote:A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is expected
to move westward across the tropical Atlantic during the next
several days. Some development of this system is possible early
next week when it reaches the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
Up to 30% now..

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Re: Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa
gatorcane wrote:The GFS refuses to develop this wave at least out through a week the run is out so far. The main culprit looks to be the fact the wave gets suffocated by a very dry airmass. You can see the white area where the wave is at traversing the MDR in the South-Central Atlantic. It makes climatological sense. We shall see...
https://i.postimg.cc/Y9r8dV4q/gfs-mid-RH-atl-28.png
There is nothing climatological about this season. Models have tended to that. This wave is about to enter into a favorable phase unlike Gonzalo and future-Hanna.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa
AutoPenalti wrote:gatorcane wrote:The GFS refuses to develop this wave at least out through a week the run is out so far. The main culprit looks to be the fact the wave gets suffocated by a very dry airmass. You can see the white area where the wave is at traversing the MDR in the South-Central Atlantic. It makes climatological sense. We shall see...
https://i.postimg.cc/Y9r8dV4q/gfs-mid-RH-atl-28.png
There is nothing climatological about this season. Models have tended to that. This wave is about to enter into a favorable phase unlike Gonzalo and future-Hanna.
That's why I don't understand why the GFS won't develop it. Like someone said maybe the model has been fixed too much to not show everything that develops. Just like a few years ago it was showing phantom storms and now it doesn't.
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- toad strangler
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- cycloneye
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa


From Webb on Twitter..
This easterly wave near the coast of Africa is a beast, even against the backdrop of big waves we've seen this yr. While it'll contend w/ some dry air, the subseasonal & seasonal base state + model support is so favorable, development already almost seems probable.
[tweet] https://twitter.com/webberweather/statu ... 4462410752[/tweet]
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa
and of course this monstrous wave would lead us to the 'I' storm, Isaias, ooooh...
Looks like we'll soon go from lemonade to orange juice!

Looks like we'll soon go from lemonade to orange juice!
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Re: Strong Tropical Wave emerging West Africa
All models are on board for development except the GFS, I’d bet against the GFS on this alone but also moves this wave much faster than every other model. I would think the GFS will come around to the other models the next day or 2 or it will either be right and all other models wrong or the GFS will bust badly again
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