ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[hurricaneCW]

Really pretty structure outside the developing inner core. It looks well ventilated, very nice outflow on all sides.

If this thing had an inner core then it'd likely be bombing right now. Good chance it starts intensifying quickly just before landfall.

In the end we'll be thankful it didn't have another day over water.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Hanna looks like on old man with a long white beard

[catskillfire51]

Is it just me or is the NHC track based of the GFS? seems pretty exact.

[eastcoastFL]

Look at that!
https://i.imgur.com/DnaLQUj.jpg

Thats a 2020 freak show Tropical Depression for a freak show of a year. "Never seen anything like this" is the norm right now. What an odd storm. If this thing were 3+ days out id be very concerned for Southern Texas. S. Texas seems to be a Covid hot spot at the moment I imagine this storm will cause some of the testing sites to go offline for a few days.

[CrazyC83]

I still think, with this structure, rapidly intensifying into a hurricane may not be off the table.

[CrazyC83]

Look at that!
https://i.imgur.com/DnaLQUj.jpg

Thats a 2020 freak show Tropical Depression for a freak show of a year. "Never seen anything like this" is the norm right now. What an odd storm. If this thing were 3+ days out id be very concerned for Southern Texas. S. Texas seems to be a Covid hot spot at the moment I imagine this storm will cause some of the testing sites to go offline for a few days.

The other issue is that sheltering will be complicated for those who have to evacuate if this intensifies too much.

[Steve]

Is it just me or is the NHC track based of the GFS? seems pretty exact.

GFS has easily been the worst model of any I watched all week. All the models have the same basic track idea.
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

It missed organization. It missed structure. It's still missing rainfall. It got the general ideal of the TX Coast right even if it was and still is barely closing it off. I'll save other comments for the models thread, but if I was the teacher, it gets an F. When the ICON and CMC are kicking your ass and even the NAM's, it's not acceptable.

[bob rulz]

I haven't kept up with the tropics quite as much as I used to, but the GFS has really been struggling this year, no? I seem to remember the same last year too. What's up with it these days?

[stormlover2013]

Is it just me or is the NHC track based of the GFS? seems pretty exact.

Gfs has sucked with this system

[eastcoastFL]

I still think, with this structure, rapidly intensifying into a hurricane may not be off the table.

That's a fair statement. It really does look impressive for a newly formed TS. Probably one of the more impressive ones that we've seen in recent years. Add that together with zero inhibiting factors and nothing but warm gulf waters for 36-48hrs and it absolutely has the potential to make it to cane status before making landfall.

It wouldn't be the first time we've seen a storm ramp up from TS to Cane in this geographic area in a day or two.

[catskillfire51]

Is it just me or is the NHC track based of the GFS? seems pretty exact.

GFS has easily been the worst model of any I watched all week. All the models have the same basic track idea.
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

It missed organization. It missed structure. It's still missing rainfall. It got the general ideal of the TX Coast right even if it was and still is barely closing it off. I'll save other comments for the models thread, but if I was the teacher, it gets an F. When the ICON and CMC are kicking your ass and even the NAM's, it's not acceptable.

I agree, thats why I am amazed the the NHC Track almost mirrors the GFS. Makes me wonder how accurate it may be.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It is still lacking convection near where the core should be. Big systems take time to consolidate. This still has a lot of work to do.

[Steve]

I haven't kept up with the tropics quite as much as I used to, but the GFS has really been struggling this year, no? I seem to remember the same last year too. What's up with it these days?

Hey bob, good to see you. It's been good on a few storms the last 3 or so years, but it's almost like they turned the noise down on it too low in the Atlantic. This year it's been overdoing the EPAC and off in the Atlantic - specifically with the track of Fay and now the organization with Hanna.

Storms ought to start firing again in a couple hours until morning. We'll see if the next pulse can't get the pressure down into the 990's.

[eastcoastFL]

Look at that!
https://i.imgur.com/DnaLQUj.jpg

Thats a 2020 freak show Tropical Depression for a freak show of a year. "Never seen anything like this" is the norm right now. What an odd storm. If this thing were 3+ days out id be very concerned for Southern Texas. S. Texas seems to be a Covid hot spot at the moment I imagine this storm will cause some of the testing sites to go offline for a few days.

The other issue is that sheltering will be complicated for those who have to evacuate if this intensifies too much.

I was thinking about that too. I'd imagine the state has contingency plans for sheltering and social distancing. I know that's something the Emergency Management divisions started focusing on and preparing for here in Florida back in April. This maybe our first test with it. I can't imagine wind being too much of an issue if this verifies with the current NHC forecast so hopefully there won't be many evacuations and minimal need for shelters.

Its going to be a test us folks in hurricane prone areas will have to deal with this season. Hopefully everyone has their hurricane plans ready and adjusted according to the current situation in the US. In my house we hunker down for Cat 2 or weaker and we run for anything stronger. Last year we ended up in Denver because Dorian was forecast to make landfall right on our town 5 days out. Kinda ended up being pointless but better safe than sorry.

[eastcoastFL]

I haven't kept up with the tropics quite as much as I used to, but the GFS has really been struggling this year, no? I seem to remember the same last year too. What's up with it these days?

Seems like all of the major models have been struggling so far this year. The GFS has been awful and the "king Euro" hasn't been much better at all. I hope this is something that works itself out sooner than later.

[Aric Dunn]

many have said it.. but this pretty much the most perfectly circular outflow I think I have seen.

it fits a logarithmic spiral perfectly.

[jaguars_22]

Aric do you think I’m still in striking distance if I’m in Victoria

[Aric Dunn]

Aric do you think I’m still in striking distance if I’m in Victoria

yes

[jaguars_22]

I’m thinking models will probably underdo intensity and it may slide further into high pressure than models show and bump up north a bit more

[Steve]

Now we're talking.