ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[cybercane]

I'm in Corpus, shall I investigate Hanna or shall I bunker down in my hotel room bored...

[xironman]

The storms blowing up on the Texas coast should help to negate any dry air entrainment.

[Texashawk]

It seems like several of the latest models have landfall closer to Port Aransas/ the Matagorda Bay Area. Is that accurate?

I don't know what models you're looking at, but nothing I see says anywhere near Matagorda. Model trend has been farther south, not farther north.

CMC - Port A area
ICON - Corpus area
NAVGEM - Near Matagorda Bay
NAM - Port A area

To be fair, some of the models have Hanna coming in and running WSW/parallel to the coast for a little while after landfall, but initial landfall seems to be creeping northward.

[Steve]

I'm in Corpus, shall I investigate Hanna or shall I bunker down in my hotel room bored...

investigate

[NDG]

It seems like several of the latest models have landfall closer to Port Aransas/ the Matagorda Bay Area. Is that accurate?

I don't know what models you're looking at, but nothing I see says anywhere near Matagorda. Model trend has been farther south, not farther north.

CMC - Port A area
ICON - Corpus area
NAVGEM - Near Matagorda Bay
NAM - Port A area

To be fair, some of the models have Hanna coming in and running WSW/parallel to the coast for a little while after landfall, but initial landfall seems to be creeping northward.

The Euro has been persistently showing landfall south of Corpus Christi for the last 3 runs. The latest GFS also agrees with the Euro, so is the last couple of runs of the HWRF.

[HurricaneBrain]

CMC pretty much nailed Hanna’s genesis, intensity, and track throughout the week.

It seems like several of the latest models have landfall closer to Port Aransas/ the Matagorda Bay Area. Is that accurate?

I don't know what models you're looking at, but nothing I see says anywhere near Matagorda. Model trend has been farther south, not farther north.

CMC - Port A area
ICON - Corpus area
NAVGEM - Near Matagorda Bay
NAM - Port A area

To be fair, some of the models have Hanna coming in and running WSW/parallel to the coast for a little while after landfall, but initial landfall seems to be creeping northward.

[jasons2k]

The battle of the titan Globals versus the mesoscale models. Will be interesting to watch.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar showing towers developing in all quads.. will this be the start ???

[WacoWx]

We are planning an outdoor weekend in San Antonio Saturday - Monday, would you cancel? We would leave tomorrow morning and come back Tuesday.

I have 3 hours to determine for the family. Is this going to ruin a pool day in San Antonio?

[Texashawk]

I don't know what models you're looking at, but nothing I see says anywhere near Matagorda. Model trend has been farther south, not farther north.

CMC - Port A area
ICON - Corpus area
NAVGEM - Near Matagorda Bay
NAM - Port A area

To be fair, some of the models have Hanna coming in and running WSW/parallel to the coast for a little while after landfall, but initial landfall seems to be creeping northward.

The Euro has been persistently showing landfall south of Corpus Christi for the last 3 runs. The latest GFS also agrees with the Euro, so is the last couple of runs of the HWRF.

Normally I'd be on board with those models, but it seems like for Hanna the Euro especially has been out to lunch. These 'lesser' models seem to have done a better job with initializing/predicting Hanna. We shall see!

[xironman]

Looks like the mid level shear is lightening up a bit. You can see the southern half of the CDO creeping northward, could wrap around in a few hours.

[Steve]

We are planning an outdoor weekend in San Antonio Saturday - Monday, would you cancel? We would leave tomorrow morning and come back Tuesday.

I have 3 hours to determine for the family. Is this going to ruin a pool day in San Antonio?

Maybe you get some bands
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... xsx51RKiG4

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think this shows that it isn't quite stacked yet
Those two new hot towers are curved to the right. They are over the center. The dry slot (not an eye) was misplaced slightly to the east

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hanna's northern side is getting hammered by shear. That, combined with a little more than day over water, makes hurricane status unlikely, but not impossible IMO.

[Nimbus]

HWRF showing possible hurricane force winds for southern coastal Corpus Christi area tomorrow afternoon into the evening. Storm doesn't look as bad as it could have been, probably due to the slightly drier environment. Forecast looks pretty straight forward unless there is an unexpected stall. NHC might issue hurricane watches later if necessary but it looks like most of the wind damage will be short lived at landfall. The models show Hanna drying out fairly quickly once she gets inland.

[aspen]

Hanna's northern side is getting hammered by shear. That, combined with a little more than day over water, makes hurricane status unlikely, but not impossible IMO.

The northern side just needs to recover a bit for hurricane status to become more likely. 24 hours is still a decent amount of time to intensify, and that could be extended if Hanna is slower and turns towards the SW earlier while still over the Gulf. I think a strong TS/weak hurricane, comparable to Barry (except not eye cancer to look at) is decently likely.

[Aric Dunn]

best convection around the center thus far .. towers building in the important SW quad. .. shear seems to have relaxed

[southerngale]

I just wants some rain and Harvey was fun to witness

Fun? What is wrong with you?

[NDG]

For the last 3 hrs it has been moving almost due west.

[Aric Dunn]

Convection is definitely tightening up closer to the center. with actual towers in SW quad expanding..