ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

This is a keeper folks!

[bohai]

In the Atlantic yes, BUT Douglas may be the first hurricane in 2020 to hit the Untied States.

[EquusStorm]

That is an absurdly far east invest for July. Hard to believe there's a wave that far east that looks that good already. Basin thinks it's a whole month later than it actually is.

[shiny-pebble]

It's crazy to think a year ago, the only activity in July had was Barry and a TD both which struggled.... And now we are fearing this wave at the same time....

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[floridasun78]

we have see if this invest can get out area were goz want by got kill by dryair that waiting too west of invest

[St0rmTh0r]

CyclonicFury, you are right. Very impressive wave here.

https://i.imgur.com/KK6M5SQ.gif

When you see waves this strong its usually foreboding of a very powerful storm in the making

[ConvergenceZone]

I’m anxious to see what Aric thinks about this one

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Wondering if this ends up the I storm before the month is over

[DestinHurricane]

First major of the season?

[Evan_Wilson]

I’m betting this will A) Be the first major of the season and B) Be the first Continental U.S. impact of the season.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

I’m betting this will A) Be the first major of the season and B) Be the first Continental U.S. impact of the season.

That second point is bold, considering Bertha, Cristobal, and Fay (and now likely Hanna) have all made landfalls on the Lower 48. Arthur even had a close pass to the Outer Banks.

Although, if it does manage to develop, I definitely do see a low-end major being possible here.

[MetroMike]

That is an absurdly far east invest for July. Hard to believe there's a wave that far east that looks that good already. Basin thinks it's a whole month later than it actually is.

Indeed it is, conditions and available energy in the MDR is more favorable now than at the peak of many past seasons.

[psyclone]

Jaugust is real.

[OuterBanker]

Typical weaker vs stronger scenario for Euro. Yesterdays 12 had a strong system nearing the Bahamas. 00z this morning a weaker system near Yucatan channel 12 z today Fl Straights.
Odd how the GFS refuses to see it.

So far I see multiple vortices, but it does look like one wants to dominate around 12N 22 W.

Looks like my last post on Cabo Verde was correct.

That circ did take over and is ramping up rather quickly.

Quite a bit north of Gonzalo which if it gets strong quickly could become a strong fish not bothering anyone.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at visible just before the sun went down it looks like the biggest vort is to the north of the main convection. It also appears that it is vigorous and is racing off to the west. We'll have to see if that vort is able to tuck under all of that convection or wrap all of into it. Despite how much this has to work with, I think it is going to take some time to consolidate.

[Evan_Wilson]

I’m betting this will A) Be the first major of the season and B) Be the first Continental U.S. impact of the season.

That second point is bold, considering Bertha, Cristobal, and Fay (and now likely Hanna) have all made landfalls on the Lower 48. Arthur even had a close pass to the Outer Banks.

Although, if it does manage to develop, I definitely do see a low-end major being possible here.

LOL those were so early in the season I completely forgot! My apologies!

[aspen]

Looking at visible just before the sun went down it looks like the biggest vort is to the north of the main convection. It also appears that it is vigorous and is racing off to the west. We'll have to see if that vort is able to tuck under all of that convection or wrap all of into it. Despite how much this has to work with, I think it is going to take some time to consolidate.

It has the time to consolidate, and the most aggressive models don’t develop this until at least 3 days out.

[SootyTern]

We have an all-you-can-eat buffet going right now for trackers

[TheStormExpert]

This invest is giving me Irma vibes.

Sort of but didn’t Irma come off Africa at a higher latitude?

[AxaltaRacing24]

This invest is giving me Irma vibes.

Sort of but didn’t Irma come off Africa at a higher latitude?

yep. and that made several people believe that there was "no chance" it could make it to the U.S.