ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Mike]

This is holding together amazingly well for July.

[HurricaneFrances04]

This invest is giving me Irma vibes.

Sort of but didn’t Irma come off Africa at a higher latitude?

Started off around the same latitude, but ended up developing more north.

viewtopic.php?p=2614439#p2614439

18z Best Track:

Location: 12.0°N 21.5°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

http://i.imgur.com/s1k2lax.png

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1286779212888772610

[Evil Jeremy]

The fact this thread already exists is muy no bueno.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1286781568690933762

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms a few hundred miles south of Cabo Verde Islands.
This wave is expected to move westward during the next several
days, and it could become a tropical depression early next week
when it reaches the western tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[chaser1]

Isaias in July????? Oy Vey

[cycloneye]

92L INVEST 200725 0000 11.2N 22.9W ATL 20 1010

[Kazmit]

This one has the potential to be the first real Cape Verde hurricane this year.

[gatorcane]

Latest loop. You can see the easterly shear from the SAL surge starting to push the convection off to the WSW. There is another wave about ready to roll off Africa. Will be interesting to see what impact this has on 92l:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

Bottom line: going to take time for this to consolidate if at all. The convection is impressive for July out there though.

[jasons2k]

When I saw the first shots of this way a couple of days ago, my heart sank. I'm afraid 92L is going to begin a new chapter of the 2020 season, one that won't be forgotten.

[Chris90]

Something I was thinking about is a similarity to the 2017 season.

The real big kickoff that year was Harvey hitting Texas. This year we currently have Hanna intensifying and getting ready to make landfall in Texas.

After Harvey, we had the I storm, Irma, become a powerful long track CV hurricane. After Hanna, this could become Isaias, a powerful long track CV hurricane (potentially). And it's July 24th.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Something I was thinking about is a similarity to the 2017 season.

The real big kickoff that year was Harvey hitting Texas. This year we currently have Hanna intensifying and getting ready to make landfall in Texas.

After Harvey, we had the I storm, Irma, become a powerful long track CV hurricane. After Hanna, this could become Isaias, a powerful long track CV hurricane (potentially). And it's July 24th.

Yeah it would be a solid month ahead of schedule, and I doubt that this season will let off by then either.

[KAlexPR]

Buoy at 12N 23W near 92L reports a pressure of 29.78 inHg which is around 1008 mb.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

I do not like the look of this thing already. It has held itself together very well so far ever since it splashed down. Unlike Gonzalo this will have a supportive and favorable CCKW to help aid in its formation, so conditions should definitely be more favorable overall.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.3N 45.0W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 27.07.2020 13.3N 45.0W WEAK

00UTC 28.07.2020 13.6N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 28.07.2020 14.1N 53.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 29.07.2020 15.4N 57.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 29.07.2020 16.7N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 30.07.2020 18.2N 64.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 30.07.2020 19.7N 68.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 31.07.2020 21.4N 70.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

[abk_0710]

I know this is very far away and may not even amount to a concern, but what would be the timeline for Gulf entry if the storm did not in fact make it that way?

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

I know this is very far away and may not even amount to a concern, but what would be the timeline for Gulf entry if the storm did not in fact make it that way?

If it does become a Caribbean cruiser, the system is still at least 10 days away from any sort of entry into the Gulf of Mexico.

[TheStormExpert]

I’m starting to think that 92L doesn’t amount to much. The latest 00z Euro shows wind shear being a problem most of the next 10 days.

So much for a favorable Kelvin Wave.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1286914114380595201




 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1286917676716130304