ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[wx98]

Another recon plane is heading out to Hanna. Let’s see if it finds a slightly stronger storm. Based on the latest organizational trends, I’m thinking it could be 50 kt and 994-998 mbar.

I agree. Definitely looking better.

[toad strangler]

Cat 1 inbound

 http://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1286780759538376704

[Craters]

Fairly breezy outside right now. Is that a direct/indirect effect of Hanna?

Direct. Yup.

[Aric Dunn]

pressure 1000 MB at a rig with 30mph winds in the SW quad.

pressure is quite likely 995mb.

[catskillfire51]

Starting it's west trek it seems.

[Do_For_Love]

Jeez, well I guess hurricane hanna is very likely at this point. An "H" gulf storm nearing the coast is like Michael Jordan in the 4th quarter of the nba finals man...

[Craters]

Maybe somebody can answer a question for me. I'm looking at the outflow from Hanna via the GOES-EAST cirrus channel (https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Gulf_Coast-04-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined), and there's hardly anything in the entire northwestern sector. I mean, there's some, but nowhere near as much as what's around the rest of the system. What would be stifling outflow so much just in that sector?

Thanks...

[Hurricane Mike]

Maybe somebody can answer a question for me. I'm looking at the outflow from Hanna via the GOES-EAST cirrus channel (https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Gulf_Coast-04-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined), and there's hardly anything in the entire northwestern sector. I mean, there's some, but nowhere near as much as what's around the rest of the system. What would be stifling outflow so much just in that sector?

Thanks...

Some dry air, mostly in the mid-levels as mentioned by the NHC this morning. Also, I think that dominant high pressure has bumped it south and impeded it's northwest side.

Unfortunately, it appears to be recovering from that though, and strengthening.

[Visioen]

Maybe somebody can answer a question for me. I'm looking at the outflow from Hanna via the GOES-EAST cirrus channel (https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Gulf_Coast-04-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined), and there's hardly anything in the entire northwestern sector. I mean, there's some, but nowhere near as much as what's around the rest of the system. What would be stifling outflow so much just in that sector?

Thanks...

I'm guessing this upper level wind map answers the question. Upper level winds are strong, evacuating a lot of air, except in the NW where the anticyclone manifests itself further inland.

[Chemmers]

Should be interesting what the recon plane finds, think defo a hurricane by morning, maybe a cat 2 by landfall

[Aric Dunn]

[Hurricane Mike]

Tonight will be a classic hot summer night drinkin' the coffee and watching to see just what Hanna does.

[Aric Dunn]

Actually the new radar image is better..

nice donut eyewall forming.. really far from radar so it is getting up to about 20k ft.

[Visioen]

Maybe somebody can answer a question for me. I'm looking at the outflow from Hanna via the GOES-EAST cirrus channel (https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Gulf_Coast-04-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined), and there's hardly anything in the entire northwestern sector. I mean, there's some, but nowhere near as much as what's around the rest of the system. What would be stifling outflow so much just in that sector?

Thanks...

Some dry air, mostly in the mid-levels as mentioned by the NHC this morning. Also, I think that dominant high pressure has bumped it south and impeded it's northwest side.

Unfortunately, it appears to be recovering from that though, and strengthening.

Dry air inhibiting outflow? How does that work?

[EquusStorm]

I don't know how much gut feeling counts for but yiiikes. Every frame looks more and more ominous. Imagine if we had TWO more days over the open Gulf with this... getting a really scary look to it especially if the NW quad fills in

[hipshot]

Exactly, I just don’t think they’ll ever be able
to predict how strong these things will develop in advance
with even 50% accuracy. Obviously the computers are just not that good at doing that. IMO

As great as models are in modern days, it’s amazing how poorly they handled the development of this very large and well-organized system. It’s baffling.

Hanna is a beautiful storm on satellite. It’s setting itself up for quick strengthening on approach to the coast. Frictional forces will only help. Brace for a high impact system, Texas.

I don't think it is the computers, it's probably the folks that wrote the programs/models etc.

[Hurricane Mike]

Maybe somebody can answer a question for me. I'm looking at the outflow from Hanna via the GOES-EAST cirrus channel (https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Gulf_Coast-04-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined), and there's hardly anything in the entire northwestern sector. I mean, there's some, but nowhere near as much as what's around the rest of the system. What would be stifling outflow so much just in that sector?

Thanks...

Some dry air, mostly in the mid-levels as mentioned by the NHC this morning. Also, I think that dominant high pressure has bumped it south and impeded it's northwest side.

Unfortunately, it appears to be recovering from that though, and strengthening.

Dry air inhibiting outflow? How does that work?

The high pressure (anti-cyclone) to the north is affecting outflow on Hanna's northwest side. The dry air, in the mid-levels especially, was also hurting it earlier today. I don't see as much of a problem with Hanna's northwest side now as I did a few hours ago.

[Aric Dunn]

Exactly, I just don’t think they’ll ever be able
to predict how strong these things will develop in advance
with even 50% accuracy. Obviously the computers are just not that good at doing that. IMO

As great as models are in modern days, it’s amazing how poorly they handled the development of this very large and well-organized system. It’s baffling.

Hanna is a beautiful storm on satellite. It’s setting itself up for quick strengthening on approach to the coast. Frictional forces will only help. Brace for a high impact system, Texas.

I don't think it is the computers, it's probably the folks that wrote the programs/models etc.

[aspen]

I can’t be the only one thinking this looks like a WPac system about to bomb out. Funny enough, we haven’t seen a single one of those systems this year, and might not see any for weeks.

[Aric Dunn]

Pressure is down to 999 mb at the stattion in the SW quad probably 50 miles from the center.

estimated central pressure 994 to 996.