ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

If it kept the current speed, it would be over water for 20 more hours.

Hanna still has time to cook.

Seems like 15-ish hours from the official NHC forecast, but even that looks like enough to get a Cat 2 at this rate. Getting to 85 kt would mean an increase of +2 kt/hr. That’s nearly +50 kt in a single day, but it’s well below Amphan’s RI phase (+75 kt in 24 hours) and nothing compared to Hagibis’ likely >100 kt/24 hrs (assuming a peak intensity of 175 kt as estimated by 1900hurricane). If Hanna remains over water for 20 hours like you estimated and reaches 85 kt, that’s an even tamer (but still very impressive) +1.5 kt/hr, or +36 kt in 24 hours.

Long story short: Hanna can become a Cat 2 without having to undergo near record-breaking RI.

[Chris90]

does anyone know if anymore recon planes are scheduled? can you post a link for future reference.

Here's the link to the Recon page for NHC. You want the "Plan of the Day" section at the top of the page.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

[catskillfire51]

does anyone know if anymore recon planes are scheduled? can you post a link for future reference.

Here's the link to the Recon page for NHC. You want the "Plan of the Day" section at the top of the page.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

Thank you!

[Aric Dunn]

If it kept the current speed, it would be over water for 20 more hours.

Hanna still has time to cook.

Seems like 15-ish hours from the official NHC forecast, but even that looks like enough to get a Cat 2 at this rate. Getting to 85 kt would mean an increase of +2 kt/hr. That’s nearly +50 kt in a single day, but it’s well below Amphan’s RI phase (+75 kt in 24 hours) and nothing compared to Hagibis’ likely >100 kt/24 hrs (assuming a peak intensity of 175 kt as estimated by 1900hurricane). If Hanna remains over water for 20 hours like you estimated and reaches 85 kt, that’s an even tamer (but still very impressive) +1.5 kt/hr, or +36 kt in 24 hours.

Long story short: Hanna can become a Cat 2 without having to undergo near record-breaking RI.

yeah, Cat 2 is quite likely...

[catskillfire51]

If it kept the current speed, it would be over water for 20 more hours.

Hanna still has time to cook.

Seems like 15-ish hours from the official NHC forecast, but even that looks like enough to get a Cat 2 at this rate. Getting to 85 kt would mean an increase of +2 kt/hr. That’s nearly +50 kt in a single day, but it’s well below Amphan’s RI phase (+75 kt in 24 hours) and nothing compared to Hagibis’ likely >100 kt/24 hrs (assuming a peak intensity of 175 kt as estimated by 1900hurricane). If Hanna remains over water for 20 hours like you estimated and reaches 85 kt, that’s an even tamer (but still very impressive) +1.5 kt/hr, or +36 kt in 24 hours.

Long story short: Hanna can become a Cat 2 without having to undergo near record-breaking RI.

yeah, Cat 2 is quite likely...

Hanna is way ahead of schedule in terms of intensity and the time over water keeps getting extended, I am no expert but there is definitely logical thinking to being a Cat 2

[HurricaneAndre2008]

70mph 990mb at 1am cdt?

[Aric Dunn]

Crazy meso vorts everywhere..

again a sign of pressure falls and convergence..

[aspen]

Seems like dry air is trying to sneak in to the still not-quite-solidified part of the eyewall. A growing burst of convection in the NE quadrant is about to obscure the eye.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Seems like dry air is trying to sneak in to the still not-quite-solidified part of the eyewall. A growing burst of convection in the NE quadrant is about to obscure the eye.

It has been battling some dry air over Texas all day. Slight hints that has not stopped. Could it be enough to keep it in check? Who knows.

[tiger_deF]

Looks to be finally firing convection in the crucial sw quadrant

[tolakram]

Live IR

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=558.9289855957031&y=941.4005432128906

[MGC]

Yes, convection is trying hard to wrap completely around the eye. Just a small section in the SW quadrant. Interesting to see what the morning brings for Hanna....hurricane?.....MGC

[FLpanhandle91]

Brand new hot tower firing south of the coc. Eye wall looks to be closed from the surface to the upper levels now. I believe she will be a hurricane very soon.

[tiger_deF]

Can't really get that much more comma shaped from here, very impressive

[Aric Dunn]

And just like magic.. the eyewall on radar has become curcular and closed.. pressure must be rapidly dropping right now..

craziness.

[shiny-pebble]

Convection is filling back in where dry air was trying to wrap in

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[catskillfire51]

Between Aric Dunn's surface radar and this image, Hanna is going in line with the rest of 2020...

[Rgv20]

Oh my....Eye see you?

[EquusStorm]

So much for sleep this weekend. Just keeps escalating

[CrazyC83]

I'm guessing they will up it to 60 kt at the next advisory. Probably no higher though.