ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[Jr0d]

I remember hurricane Bret many years ago making landfall as a major hurricane is the sparsely populated area of Texas between Corpus Christie and South Padre, which was a huge relief. Hopefully Hanna will do the same.

I know SpaceX was hoping to some Starship prototype hops in the very near future, obviously that will be on hold. We want Hanna to spare the SpaceX facility.

I know 24 hours ago I was expecting RI, so far Hanna has not met those expectations, however with 12 hours or so before landfall I am worried RI is still possible.

I knew this storm would be trouble earlier in the week after seeing how intense the squalls it brought in Key West were. While not a scientific observation, it seems like some systems just have a tenacity even early on before they are classified that is a strong predictor of it's future potentional.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

2020JUL25 060000 3.9 982.6 63.0 3.9 4.2 4.3 0.7T/6hr OFF OFF -74.16 -72.06 UNIFRM N/A -9.2 27.10 95.20 FCST GOES16 38.7

It's been a long time. Is the pressure down to 982?

Nah, this is the suggested ADT pressure based solely off of the automated Dvorak technique. It's a clear indication that the storm is strengthening, but not an actual measurement of the system. Surface OBS and radar are more useful at this point.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Double post time!

06z Best Track/ATCF says max winds are 60kt and minimum pressure is 988mb.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Should be a hurricane by 11 AM. Definitely an overachiever as far as July systems go.

[CrazyC83]

Double post time!

06z Best Track/ATCF says max winds are 60kt and minimum pressure is 988mb.

That seems most reasonable. If I were to go just by appearance, I would say 65-70 kt, but I'd wait for Recon to officially call it a hurricane unless there is conclusive surface data.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Double post time!

06z Best Track/ATCF says max winds are 60kt and minimum pressure is 988mb.

That seems most reasonable. If I were to go just by appearance, I would say 65-70 kt, but I'd wait for Recon to officially call it a hurricane unless there is conclusive surface data.

Further below, there was a report at 15K feet of winds of 90mph. That is likely 75mph at or near the surface.

[Hammy]

Looks like it sucked in some more dry air, and makes me wonder if the huge recon gap is going to end up missing the peak.

[wx98]

Still about 5 hours til recon gets there

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like it sucked in some more dry air, and makes me wonder if the huge recon gap is going to end up missing the peak.

No dry air.

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1286925655842660353

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it sucked in some more dry air, and makes me wonder if the huge recon gap is going to end up missing the peak.

No dry air.

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/12 ... 5842660353

I knew Derek was still watching over us

[TheStormExpert]

Should be a hurricane by 11 AM. Definitely an overachiever as far as July systems go.

https://i.imgur.com/SdfwFLF.jpg

Definitely some northerly shear once again affecting Hanna, especially in the mid-levels. Still impressive nonetheless.

[chaser1]

Looks vigorous. I'm thinking NHC goes special advisory between 8:00a.m. - 10:00 a.m. to upgrade to hurricane. Wouldn't surprise me if Hanna stalled right off the coast due to continued deepening.

[Hammy]

Looks vigorous. I'm thinking NHC goes special advisory between 8:00a.m. - 10:00 a.m. to upgrade to hurricane. Wouldn't surprise me if Hanna stalled right off the coast due to continued deepening.

I'm curious, what would the mechanics behind that be?

[USTropics]

Recent radar images show the low-level eye wall, while still a bit ragged, is improving and has completely closed off:



Building this eyewall up in heights (to the mid-upper levels of the atmosphere) has been taking some time (not unusual with the size of this system). Watch this area circled in white, that's where we should see convection start to build with heights:

[USTropics]

For those not using GRlevelx or similar, some really good radar links can be found here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/radar.html

[Ubuntwo]

Now officially 60kt/998mb.

[Chris90]

I went back to the archives to check, and in an interesting coincidence, Harvey was also a 91L invest designation, same as Hanna. Just thought it was interesting that they're both 91Ls, the H name, and Texas impacts.

I'm not forecasting a major hurricane impact with Hanna though, just want to make that clear. I'm thinking more like 80-85kts at peak/landfall right now. But follow the guidance of officials at the NHC, not me.

[GCANE]

Seeing some significant helicity inland.
Strong signature thru 3000 ft.
Tornadoes are a threat.
A strong cell is about to come on shore.
Anybody in this area needs to be on the lookout.

[GCANE]

CAPE has increased to 3500 in the core.
Stronger lightning in the feeder band and getting closer to the core indicating infeed is strenghtening.
Big radial fingers in the outflow from West to North.
If dry air is a problem, its very minor.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/TheAstroNick/status/1286934284671082496




 https://twitter.com/TheAstroNick/status/1286950426848514051