ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[USTropics]

IR presentation looks fine to me, the center has actually been cloud covered. I believe it's starting to peak out right here (circled in white):

[Steejo91]

Here at North Padre Island. Surge is coming up at a decent rate with the incoming tide near Bob's Pier! Beach is completely flooded with waves starting to topple sand barriers.

[wxman57]

IR imagery doesn't look very good this morning, but the radar presentation shows a more organized storm than last night.

https://i.imgur.com/SPcmJ9a.png

Radar was looking at near the top of the storm last night due to the distance offshore. Now it's looking at the lower levels. However, it does appear better-organized. Let's see what recon finds. Good news is that it will be impacting one of the least-populated parts of the US coast - the King Ranch area. Strongest winds will miss both Corpus Christi and Brownsville.

[underthwx]

:uarrow: The biggest problem is the shear including mid-level shear which has likely prevented Hanna from blowing up into a Cat.2 or Cat.3. But it’ll still be a Cat.1 likely still landfall and a decent one at that.

I mean you no disrespect..but shear is a good thing from where Im sittin...harvey went pretty much where this one is goin...about 300 miles or so south of me..and I lost everything....so don't take my comment the wrong way... I know you are writing your posts in a meteorological viewpoint...so far here in Brazoria, just some rain and such... I'm good with that

[NDG]

My bet is that Recon will find Hanna to be a solid Cat 1 Hurricane. With 8-10 hours still left before landfall Cat 2 is not out of the question if not Cat 3.

https://i.imgur.com/PS9zkIz.gif

A Cat 1 is high likely by landfall. However, since Hanna’s IR presentation has regressed and it only has 10 hours or less over water, I’m now highly doubtful it’ll surpass 80 kt.

It's radar presentation has been improving a lot in the last couple of hours, is now getting into D-max so its satellite presentation should be improving soon.

[aspen]

Recon is already finding 55-60 kt FL winds at 27.8N, while the center is around 27.0N.

[NDG]

IR imagery doesn't look very good this morning, but the radar presentation shows a more organized storm than last night.

https://i.imgur.com/SPcmJ9a.png

Radar was looking at near the top of the storm last night due to the distance offshore. Now it's looking at the lower levels. However, it does appear better-organized. Let's see what recon finds. Good news is that it will be impacting one of the least-populated parts of the US coast - the King Ranch area. Strongest winds will miss both Corpus Christi and Brownsville.

Josh will have a hard time getting as close to the coast as possible in that area, lots of dirt roads between Hwy 77 & the coast, by looking at google maps.

[NDG]

IR presentation looks fine to me, the center has actually been cloud covered. I believe it's starting to peak out right here (circled in white):

https://i.imgur.com/zZUyfB1.png

That's too far north, it right on the 27th latitude.

[NDG]

Pressure of 985mb so far, even lower on the next message.

NOAA3 0608A HANNA HDOB 15 20200725
112900 2747N 09519W 6955 03145 9991 +115 +102 120051 051 048 008 00
112930 2745N 09521W 6940 03160 9985 +115 +104 126051 053 047 008 00
113000 2744N 09523W 6957 03134 9984 +111 +107 126051 053 046 007 00
113030 2742N 09524W 6954 03134 9983 +108 //// 127060 062 051 014 01
113100 2740N 09525W 6950 03133 9978 +106 //// 134063 064 054 012 01
113130 2739N 09526W 6955 03122 9968 +110 //// 129063 064 054 009 01
113200 2737N 09527W 6966 03104 9961 +113 //// 127060 060 054 008 01
113230 2735N 09529W 6947 03122 9948 +118 +117 123059 059 056 007 00
113300 2733N 09530W 6955 03105 9941 +120 +109 122059 059 058 010 00
113330 2732N 09531W 6968 03086 9946 +111 //// 128056 058 061 015 05
113400 2730N 09532W 6941 03114 9930 +114 //// 135060 065 058 021 05
113430 2728N 09533W 6957 03088 9928 +113 //// 136051 054 058 036 01
113500 2727N 09534W 6960 03080 9923 +112 //// 138055 057 057 023 05
113530 2725N 09535W 6958 03079 9910 +121 //// 135059 060 055 008 01
113600 2723N 09536W 6946 03088 9901 +123 //// 135060 061 048 004 01
113630 2722N 09537W 6946 03083 9893 +125 //// 134057 058 045 001 01
113700 2720N 09538W 6943 03084 9889 +127 +122 137058 058 043 001 00
113730 2718N 09539W 6957 03063 9872 +138 +117 138058 058 044 000 00
113800 2717N 09541W 6956 03054 9863 +138 +120 133055 055 046 000 00
113830 2715N 09542W 6969 03032 9855 +138 +126 135057 058 048 001 00

[Shell Mound]

Given the somewhat disheveled IR appearance, owing to the persistence of northerly VWS, the winds at flight level may actually be higher than at 10 m, so the normal reduction factor may not apply as well as it usually does. The large and expanding wind field suggests that the pressure may be lower than the surface winds suggest, given the gradual rate of organisation. Therefore, we could see a Cat-1 hurricane making landfall with a MSLP in the low to mid 970s (mb). In this respect Hanna is a bit similar to Hurricane Isaac ‘12 or even Hurricane Hermine ‘16. I’m guessing a MSW of about 70 to 75 knots at landfall with a possible central pressure on the order of 970–5 mb.

[NDG]

[USTropics]

IR presentation looks fine to me, the center has actually been cloud covered. I believe it's starting to peak out right here (circled in white):

https://i.imgur.com/zZUyfB1.png

That's too far north, it right on the 27th latitude.

I should clarify I meant that part of the eye is starting to clear out. The center is much larger than that, I'd put it just north of 27N, around 27.3N and 96W:

[wxman57]

IR presentation looks fine to me, the center has actually been cloud covered. I believe it's starting to peak out right here (circled in white):

https://i.imgur.com/zZUyfB1.png

Center is well southwest of your circle. Southwest of your second circle, too.

[NDG]

Pressure down to 979-980mb!!!

114230 2704N 09555W 6971 02990 9802 +147 +129 133012 014 015 000 00
114300 2703N 09557W 6955 03011 9801 +144 +131 147009 010 011 000 03
114330 2702N 09559W 6965 02992 9797 +146 +127 117003 005 010 000 03
114400 2700N 09601W 6968 02990 9796 +147 +127 323007 010 013 000 00
114430 2659N 09602W 6958 03003 9797 +148 +127 326013 015 021 000 00
114500 2657N 09604W 6961 03004 9799 +151 +117 320026 031 031 001 00

[GCANE]

Wow. 985mb and not there yet.

[cybercane]

IR imagery doesn't look very good this morning, but the radar presentation shows a more organized storm than last night.

https://i.imgur.com/SPcmJ9a.png

Radar was looking at near the top of the storm last night due to the distance offshore. Now it's looking at the lower levels. However, it does appear better-organized. Let's see what recon finds. Good news is that it will be impacting one of the least-populated parts of the US coast - the King Ranch area. Strongest winds will miss both Corpus Christi and Brownsville.

i highly doubt they miss corpus... hella windy over here fella

[Airboy]

Extrap. Sfc. Press: 979.6 mb (28.93 inHg)
In the center

[NDG]

IR presentation looks fine to me, the center has actually been cloud covered. I believe it's starting to peak out right here (circled in white):

https://i.imgur.com/zZUyfB1.png

That's too far north, it right on the 27th latitude.

I should clarify I meant that part of the eye is starting to clear out. The center is much larger than that, I'd put it just north of 27N, around 27.3N and 96W:
https://i.imgur.com/aEDVZQQ.png

Nope, recon confirmed it to be right on the 27th latitude, like the radar has been showing.

[wx98]

Pressure is nearly 980.

[wxman57]

IR imagery doesn't look very good this morning, but the radar presentation shows a more organized storm than last night.

https://i.imgur.com/SPcmJ9a.png

Radar was looking at near the top of the storm last night due to the distance offshore. Now it's looking at the lower levels. However, it does appear better-organized. Let's see what recon finds. Good news is that it will be impacting one of the least-populated parts of the US coast - the King Ranch area. Strongest winds will miss both Corpus Christi and Brownsville.

i highly doubt they miss corpus... hella windy over here fella

If it tracks as forecast, then the eyewall (with strongest winds) will miss Corpus Christi and Brownsville. Strongest winds extend only about 20 miles from the center. Still no clear evidence of 65 kt surface wind, though it probably has a small area of hurricane-force wind that the plane missed.