ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1421 Postby wx98 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:54 am

Hurricane Hanna
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1422 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:54 am

Hanna now a Hurricane!
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1423 Postby GCANE » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:55 am

Possible mesovort on the western wall

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Re: ATL: HANNA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1424 Postby NDG » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:56 am

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS AND DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS FIND HANNA HAS BECOME THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2020 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...
7:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 25
Location: 27.1°N 96.0°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 982 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1425 Postby NDG » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:58 am

I wonder why they went with only 982mb before seeing the VDM.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1426 Postby GCANE » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:59 am

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Re: ATL: HANNA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1427 Postby wx98 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 6:59 am

NDG wrote:I wonder why they went with only 982mb before seeing the VDM.

The dropsonde splashed at 982, with only 4 kts of wind.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1428 Postby aspen » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:01 am

She did it! And wow, that’s a huge pressure drop from last night. Might be ~979 mbar by the time they finish sampling the storm.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1429 Postby NDG » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:02 am

A stronger SW quadrant than last night.

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Re: ATL: HANNA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1430 Postby GCANE » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:05 am

https://i.imgur.com/UxYkAY9.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 1335
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

Areas affected...Middle and Upper Texas Coast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 251159Z - 251400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The tornado threat will gradually increase this morning as
tropical cyclone Hanna approaches the lower Texas Coast.
A Tornado
Watch may be necessary later this morning for portions of the Texas
coast.

DISCUSSION...Low-level helicity continues to slowly increase this
morning across portions of the middle and upper Texas coast as
tropical cyclone Hanna approaches.
On the northwest side of Hanna,
northerly shear has generally restricted the ability of feeder bands
to sustain themselves and penetrate inland. Recent radar and
satellite trends, however, suggests an uptick in convective vigor in
several bands to the east and southeast of Galveston, including
episodic areas of weak, broad low-level rotation embedded within the
more pronounced/robust updrafts to the southeast of Galveston.

The commencement of diurnal heating to the north of the rain-filled
central dense overcast, combined with an increase in low-level
theta-e, should provide an increasingly favorable environment for
sustaining vigorous convection.
At this time the most likely area
for this to occur will be across the northwest Gulf of Mexico, to
the north of the main core of Hanna. These storms will continue to
move to the west-northwest, impacting the middle and upper Texas
coast through the morning. With time, low-level wind fields should
strengthen in response to Hanna, resulting in an increasingly
supportive environment for tornadoes. Although a tornado watch is
not likely in the near term, one may be needed later this morning.

..Marsh/Edwards.. 07/25/2020
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1431 Postby Highteeld » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:06 am

NDG wrote:A stronger SW quadrant than last night.

https://i.imgur.com/E87RY5v.png

Much stronger, while the NE quad remains mostly unchanged
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: HANNA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1432 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:07 am

NDG wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Highteeld wrote:IR imagery doesn't look very good this morning, but the radar presentation shows a more organized storm than last night.

https://i.imgur.com/SPcmJ9a.png


Radar was looking at near the top of the storm last night due to the distance offshore. Now it's looking at the lower levels. However, it does appear better-organized. Let's see what recon finds. Good news is that it will be impacting one of the least-populated parts of the US coast - the King Ranch area. Strongest winds will miss both Corpus Christi and Brownsville.


Josh will have a hard time getting as close to the coast as possible in that area, lots of dirt roads between Hwy 77 & the coast, by looking at google maps.


Port Mansfield on 186 at the coast might work (southern eyewall). Otherwise, anywhere along Hwy. 77. Not much between 77 and the coast.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1433 Postby GCANE » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:08 am

Tracking into higher Theta-E is the classic indicator for rapid intensification.
Last edited by GCANE on Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:17 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1434 Postby NDG » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:08 am

Highteeld wrote:
NDG wrote:A stronger SW quadrant than last night.

https://i.imgur.com/E87RY5v.png

Much stronger, while the NE quad remains mostly unchanged


By looking at the radar the SE quadrant is where I think they will find the hurricane force winds.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1435 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:09 am

Oops on the header on the corrected advisory they just issued -- Tropical Storm instead of Hurricane.

Tropical Storm Hanna Intermediate Advisory Number 10A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082020
700 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

Corrected to add hurricane-force wind radii and hourly updates
Last edited by BobHarlem on Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1436 Postby Airboy » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:09 am

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 12:02Z
Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N43RF)
Storm Number & Year: 08 in 2020
Storm Name: Hanna (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 6
Observation Number: 05

A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 11:43:38Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27.03N 96.00W
B. Center Fix Location: 99 statute miles (160 km) to the ESE (120°) from Corpus Christi, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,951m (9,682ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 982mb (29.00 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 260° at 4kts (From the W at 5mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 59kts (67.9mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 40 nautical miles (46 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix at 11:33:19Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 133° at 66kts (From the SE at 76.0mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the NE (40°) of center fix at 11:33:45Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 54kts (62.1mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix at 11:47:08Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 318° at 66kts (From the NW at 76.0mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix at 11:48:19Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,072m (10,079ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,062m (10,046ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
S. Fix Level: 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1437 Postby NDG » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:12 am

Its radar presentation really looks good, and we should see an eye pop out soon on satellite.

Image
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Re: ATL: HANNA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1438 Postby GCANE » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:12 am

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Re: ATL: HANNA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1439 Postby Highteeld » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:13 am

NDG wrote:Its radar presentation really looks good, and we should see an eye pop out soon on satellite.

https://i.imgur.com/T2RT325.gif

Big eye, should cap intensity somewhat
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: HANNA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1440 Postby wxman57 » Sat Jul 25, 2020 7:15 am

The lower TX coast is not very prone to a large storm surge. SLOSH indicating around 4 ft.
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