ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[caneseddy]

Landfall on the First Coast per GFS. At least it's still one week out and many things can change but the pattern that seems to be trending is for a hurricane threat somewhere from the Carolinas south starting next weekend. This is a good time to check our supplies


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[AutoPenalti]

So there’s just a random shortwave chillin’ by the Tennessee Valley?

[WeatherEmperor]

This should not be surprising since the NAO is forecast to shoot upwards and get positive near the first couple of days in August which would suggest more ridging. Lets watch the NAO and see how it changes




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[Cpv17]

If these storms keep developing so strong early on like this there might not be another storm in the Gulf the rest of the season and the east coast could be getting hammered and probably a lot of recurves.

[toad strangler]

The GFS is fully on board. All this 12z GFS run does is tell everybody in the basin to be aware. Landfall point means absolutely nothing.

[stormlover2013]

If these storms keep developing so strong early on like this there might not be another storm in the Gulf the rest of the season and the east coast could be getting hammered and probably a lot of recurves.

Lol dude really?? Only reason it would go to East coast is trough breaks the ridge down come on dude

[Evan_Wilson]

Agreed, landfall points mean very little at this point in time until the system actually develops. As of now, we know there’s a tropical wave likely to develop and it has the potential to impact the U.S.

[SFLcane]

Ok you can stop now GFS..you got my attention

[HurricaneFrances04]

CMC may be the eastern outlier and splits the gap between North Carolina and Bermuda

[northjaxpro]

Excellent point Weather Emperor about the teleconnections pointing to a positive NAO behinning next week. The dreaded +NAO. It has saved us so much in the winter momyhs from very cold arctic airmasses.

But, if the teleconnections forecast bears out next week, that +NAO will potentially be big trouble for Florida , the Southeast U.S. Coast, and even the Gulf Coast with a few of the opetational ensembles.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z GFS with the incredibly rare hit on Jacksonville. We’ve been down this road time and time again. Timing of troughs and ridges means everything. Predicting a landfall point over 10 days out is like throwing darts blindfolded. More often than not it ends up being a recurve away from the US. Given it will be early August and a +NAO, my confidence in a recurve is less than normal.


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[toad strangler]

CMC may be the eastern outlier and splits the gap between North Carolina and Bermuda

yep, CMC a classic re-curver. Certainly within the realm of possibilities. So far out. We track.

[OuterBanker]

Interesting scenario with the GFS 12z run with a Fl/Ga border hit. Extremely rare, do not see that happening. At least the GFS is now seeing the future Isaias. Was wondering if it ever was going to catch it.
Euro has been consistent the last few runs with a weaker Caribbean cruiser into the Gulf.
CMC latest run is OTS off east coast.
Long time to watch, blindfold and dart board accuracy at this point.
Cannot come this way because I leave for Pittsburgh on the 7th for a week.

[caneseddy]

12z Icon comes in and keeps it as a TD/low end TS going over the Northern Leewards, but missing PR and seems to be going OTS as well

[SouthFLTropics]

There’s only one thing we can say for certain at this point. A lot of us are going to lose sleep over the next week watching model runs come in.


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[toad strangler]

12z GFS with the incredibly rare hit on Jacksonville. We’ve been down this road time and time again. Timing of troughs and ridges means everything. Predicting a landfall point over 10 days out is like throwing darts blindfolded. More often than not it ends up being a recurve away from the US. Given it will be early August and a +NAO, my confidence in a recurve is less than normal.


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Excellent well thought out and level post.

[Cpv17]

If these storms keep developing so strong early on like this there might not be another storm in the Gulf the rest of the season and the east coast could be getting hammered and probably a lot of recurves.

Lol dude really?? Only reason it would go to East coast is trough breaks the ridge down come on dude

All I’m saying is that the earlier and stronger these storms develop, the less likely they are to reach the Gulf unless the ridging is very strong.

[Evan_Wilson]

Basically anyone from the Gulf Coast to New England needs to pay attention to this storm. It’s 2020 and truly nothing is out of question.

[AutoPenalti]

If these storms keep developing so strong early on like this there might not be another storm in the Gulf the rest of the season and the east coast could be getting hammered and probably a lot of recurves.

Lol dude really?? Only reason it would go to East coast is trough breaks the ridge down come on dude

All I’m saying is that the earlier and stronger these storms develop, the less likely they are to reach the Gulf unless the ridging is very strong.

Irma would like a word with you.

[St0rmTh0r]

Interesting scenario with the GFS 12z run with a Fl/Ga border hit. Extremely rare, do not see that happening. At least the GFS is now seeing the future Isaias. Was wondering if it ever was going to catch it.
Euro has been consistent the last few runs with a weaker Caribbean cruiser into the Gulf.
CMC latest run is OTS off east coast.
Long time to watch, blindfold and dart board accuracy at this point.
Cannot come this way because I leave for Pittsburgh on the 7th for a week.

Its 2020 anything is possible