ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[Evil Jeremy]

Lol dude really?? Only reason it would go to East coast is trough breaks the ridge down come on dude

All I’m saying is that the earlier and stronger these storms develop, the less likely they are to reach the Gulf unless the ridging is very strong.

Irma would like a word with you.

And Ike would like to follow up.

[chaser1]

Agreed, landfall points mean very little at this point in time until the system actually develops. As of now, we know there’s a tropical wave likely to develop and it has the potential to impact the U.S.

In fact, if this storm seem's presently poised to landfall right on your doorstep then you are very likely in the safest place LOL. At this distant juncture, I'd bet the farm that it'll end up at least 100 miles south, north or east of any current 240 hr. forecast. That said, no one wants to see a trend suggesting an increasing chance of Isias coming for a visit.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Looks like most of the ensembles are east of the GFS operational

[otowntiger]

If these storms keep developing so strong early on like this there might not be another storm in the Gulf the rest of the season and the east coast could be getting hammered and probably a lot of recurves.

Lol dude really?? Only reason it would go to East coast is trough breaks the ridge down come on dude

All I’m saying is that the earlier and stronger these storms develop, the less likely they are to reach the Gulf unless the ridging is very strong.

also the less likely to affect the east coast, no? In fact climatologically speaking it more common for storms to recurve in general. So the chances of a recurve are always greater than not.

[toad strangler]

Looks like most of the ensembles are east of the GFS operational

Yep, a E of OP flavor here. But not all.

[toad strangler]

Lol dude really?? Only reason it would go to East coast is trough breaks the ridge down come on dude

All I’m saying is that the earlier and stronger these storms develop, the less likely they are to reach the Gulf unless the ridging is very strong.

also the less likely to affect the east coast, no? In fact climatologically speaking it more common for storms to recurve in general. So the chances of a recurve are always greater than not.

Thanks for saying this, I've been saying it all spring into summer. re-curve before landfall (except islands) are standard basin climatology.

[abajan]

12z GFS with the incredibly rare hit on Jacksonville. We’ve been down this road time and time again. Timing of troughs and ridges means everything. Predicting a landfall point over 10 days out is like throwing darts blindfolded. ...

Or like doing this.

[HurricaneFrances04]

[chaser1]

12z GFS with the incredibly rare hit on Jacksonville. We’ve been down this road time and time again. Timing of troughs and ridges means everything. Predicting a landfall point over 10 days out is like throwing darts blindfolded. ...

Or like doing this.

Okay if this storm is anything like that video, it would be like nailing it's 10 day forecasted point of landfall, and then circling back after intensifying and hitting that same point.....for a third time. If that's where I lived, i'd soon be moving to the Northern Rockies to get as far from any ocean as possible.

[Blinhart]

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL92_2020072512_GEFS_large.png?1595698263

I would like to go with the Southern outlier for now, just gut feeling.

[SFLcane]

12z intensity guidance way up.

[Cpv17]

All I’m saying is that the earlier and stronger these storms develop, the less likely they are to reach the Gulf unless the ridging is very strong.

also the less likely to affect the east coast, no? In fact climatologically speaking it more common for storms to recurve in general. So the chances of a recurve are always greater than not.

Thanks for saying this, I've been saying it all spring into summer. re-curve before landfall (except islands) are standard basin climatology.

I agree 100%.

[Cpv17]

Lol dude really?? Only reason it would go to East coast is trough breaks the ridge down come on dude

All I’m saying is that the earlier and stronger these storms develop, the less likely they are to reach the Gulf unless the ridging is very strong.

Irma would like a word with you.

If I’m being completely honest, I don’t really remember Irma. Had to look her up on Google lol found the wiki page. I’m sure she had a strong ridge to her north though. And I do remember Ike had a crazy track too. Only reason I remember that is because it hit Texas.

[MetroMike]

GFS is playing catch up now and would not take this run too seriously.
May be completely different on 18z.

[BobHarlem]

GFS is playing catch up now and would not take this run too seriously.
May be completely different on 18z.

The "new new" GFS (GFS-Parallel) which is still not 100% (and 12z isn't out yet) had it rolling through PR, the southern Bahamas, hitting Miami on the 0z. I'm not quite what to make of the "Para" yet, but I'll be watching in on 92L.

[AutoPenalti]

Shortwave trough may pick this up in the long run.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It would awful if this storm hits the NE, especially the NYC/Long Island area, considering what the virus has already done to the region. Thankfully, we have a lot of days before now and then.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro running.

[toad strangler]

If I’m being completely honest, I don’t really remember Irma.

[Cpv17]

I know! That’s sad! But I tend to not pay that much attention to storms if they aren’t headed towards me. I’m sure I’m not the only one that’s like that though. I’ll have to work on that lol