ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Way to early to get confident about a recurve or landfall. Most of us have all been here time and time again to witness the windshield wiper effect of the models. Before this is over they will swing back left and right and eventually settle on a solution. Personally I’d feel a lot better if it had shown a hit on my location at 10 days.


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[cheezyWXguy]

Watching the models for anything beyond potential impacts to the Antilles is for entertainment purposes only at this point. The bottom line takeaway right now is that we have a westward moving system that’s likely to develop and continue strengthening. Climatology is a good reference as a general indicator, but has no impact on the current or future conditions. I can’t count the number of times the models have dramatically shifted in a 2-3 time period (Hanna and Dorian for starters). There’s plenty of time to watch how this plays out, and it is way too far out to accurately resolve the ridge/trough pattern and timing on the east coast when this approaches.

[toad strangler]

Way to early to get confident about a recurve or landfall. Most of us have all been here time and time again to witness the windshield wiper effect of the models. Before this is over they will swing back left and right and eventually settle on a solution. Personally I’d feel a lot better if it had shown a hit on my location at 10 days.

The
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Yet it NEVER fails when even at this far out, many declare an end game or trend.

[SFLcane]

Long ways to go with this one. Irma looked like a shoe in to recurve only to head west. It has to develop first

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

12z EPS strong signal for recurve this afternoon.

Perhaps, but where does the recurve occur that is the question (assuming this run pans out). Most storms that hit the East Coast (from the Carolinas to Nova Scotia) are technically recurving.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EdPiotrowski/status/1287117777959084034

[ronjon]

Well that gets your attention:

Yeah next few frames of that run landfall in St Aug and run the storm due north to Atlanta. Probably not too many historical tracks like that! 10 days out its all fantasy but fun watching and waiting.

[Cpv17]

Guys, aren’t most storms modeled to recurve when they’re in this location just coming off Africa only to correct back west with time? I feel like I see that a lot.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Guys, aren’t most storms modeled to recurve when they’re in this location just coming off Africa only to correct back west with time? I feel like I see that a lot.

I'll say this much. I'd rather have a storm hitting me ten plus days out than five days or less out. More often than naught, if you get whacked on a ultra long range model run you're safe.

[Emmett_Brown]

Gonzalo and Hanna trended S and W with time, so all we know is it will probably change. Even tough to say which islands if any could be affected.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Finally have some UKMET ensembles. Safe to say, no one should write off anything yet! Although I'm sure most here already understand that.

[chaser1]

Way to early to get confident about a recurve or landfall. Most of us have all been here time and time again to witness the windshield wiper effect of the models. Before this is over they will swing back left and right and eventually settle on a solution. Personally I’d feel a lot better if it had shown a hit on my location at 10 days.

The
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Yet it NEVER fails when even at this far out, many declare an end game or trend.

We'll all do our collective best to ignore them

[ConvergenceZone]

In spite of everyone talking recurve, due to some of the models and climatology, I still think there's a small chance it doesn't recurve, just have to watch it....

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/KVwrrjH.png

That little TS forming off of the East Coast is another thing some of the models have been showing recently. Maybe we’ll get both Isaias and Josephine in the next ten days. If so, the latter would crush the record for the earliest 10th named storm, currently held by Jose ‘05 on August 22nd.

[TheStormExpert]

Well the trend this afternoon has been for a recurve. Now watch them swing back west tomorrow and show a Gulf solution.

[aspen]

Well the trend this afternoon has been for a recurve. Now watch them swing back west tomorrow and show a Gulf solution.

Basically any scenario is on the table right now: a Caribbean cruiser into the Gulf (Emily ‘05), a Lesser/Greater Antilles scraper (Irma ‘17/Dorian ‘19), an East Coast Sweep (Irene ‘11), or a close call out-to-sea major (Earl ‘10). I’ll feel a lot more confident about model solutions in 3-5 days when we have a developing or developed TC getting close to the Lesser Antilles.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well the trend this afternoon has been for a recurve. Now watch them swing back west tomorrow and show a Gulf solution.

Basically any scenario is on the table right now: a Caribbean cruiser into the Gulf (Emily ‘05), a Lesser/Greater Antilles scraper (Irma ‘17/Dorian ‘19), an East Coast Sweep (Irene ‘11), or a close call out-to-sea major (Earl ‘10). I’ll feel a lot more confident about model solutions in 3-5 days when we have a developing or developed TC getting close to the Lesser Antilles.

Although no longer a hurricane, Earl made landfall in Nova Scotia as a tropical storm. He didn't "go out to sea", just saying.

There is an entire section of my weather blog covering the event (if anyone is interested) -

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.com/2010_09_04_archive.html

[SouthFLTropics]

Any thoughts on whether or not the 18z GFS will live up to its happy hour reputation and throw us a crazy solution? If the past is any indicator, 18z will be the “fun run” to watch.


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[StPeteMike]

Can’t remember, did they have Irma recurving at the beginning of its life?

[SFLcane]

Any thoughts on whether or not the 18z GFS will live up to its happy hour reputation and throw us a crazy solution? If the past is any indicator, 18z will be the “fun run” to watch.


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Many happy hr GFS runs to go.