2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[AnnularCane]

Current indicators suggest July 20th was the bell ringing this year instead of August 20th. Off to the races we go.

Maybe somebody got confused and rang the bell a month early.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1286512588608516097



 https://twitter.com/splillo/status/1286535162696589312



 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1286499793808760837



 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1286498895715942401

[TheStormExpert]

Funny he mentions 1997 considering that was a Super El Niño and we are currently nowhere near that extreme.

[EquusStorm]

Also notably none of those initial 1997 storms were tropical wave-spawned.

[CyclonicFury]

It's looking quite likely we'll have a July hurricane of tropical origin with Hanna.

Since the active era began in 1995, the following years have featured a July Atlantic hurricane of tropical origin: 1996, 2003, 2005, 2008, and 2018. All of these seasons were above average in activity, and the average ACE between all of those years was 174.

[Hammy]

It's looking quite likely we'll have a July hurricane of tropical origin with Hanna.

Since the active era began in 1995, the following years have featured a July Atlantic hurricane of tropical origin: 1996, 2003, 2005, 2008, and 2018. All of these seasons were above average in activity, and the average ACE between all of those years was 174.

1995 as well, Erin technically became a hurricane on July 31 if you go by eastern time which probably bumps that average up a bit.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1286989179247898624

[aspen]

In a post a few weeks back, I did an analysis of all seasons since 1980 and found that those with at least one AEW-based system in July tend to be above-average or hyperactive. I also mentioned that multiple AEW July systems, including at least one hurricane, would signal a very active season. So what have we seen so far?

40 kt TS Edouard, non-tropical origins.

50 kt TS Fay, non-tropical origins.

55 kt TS Gonzalo in the MDR.

80 kt Hurricane Hanna in the Gulf from an AEW.

Invest 92L, decent shot of becoming a MDR hurricane.

July 2020 has seen near record levels of activity in terms of named storms and has surpassed 2005’s records for the earliest fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth named storms. If 92L becomes Isaias, which is looking ever more likely now that more global models are jumping on board, that’ll be the earliest ninth named storm and tie 2005’s record five July systems. Half of the systems this month have come from AEWs, making 2020 one of the few years with more than one July AEW system. On top of that, this is all coming after an absolutely enormous burst of SAL in late June/early July.

The signs cannot be clearer: if July is this active with multiple systems of tropical origins, then the rest of the year will continue to be hyperactive. Things could really get rolling between August 20th-30th, when the Euro VP anomaly forecast shows a favorable environment across the tropical Atlantic.

[HurricaneFrances04]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1286992334710661120

[cainjamin]

Not something you see in July very often.

[tiger_deF]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

Not something you see in July very often.

This is like something you'd consider the peak of the season for several other years..

[FireRat]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

Not something you see in July very often.

This is like something you'd consider the peak of the season for several other years..

Signs of the times...
Still can't believe it's JULY 25. Imagine Aug 25 or Sept 25.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1286989179247898624?s=21

So what exactly would this mean? A slower pace than what we’ve seen? Michael Ventrice sure loves to hug onto these Kelvin Waves. I recall him making a statement about not being able to buy a hurricane in the Atlantic in early September 2017 then we had Irma, Jose, and Maria along with others.

[CyclonicFury]

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1286989179247898624?s=21

So what exactly would this mean? A slower pace than what we’ve seen? Michael Ventrice sure loves to hug onto these Kelvin Waves. I recall him making a statement about not being able to buy a hurricane in the Atlantic in early September 2017 then we had Irma, Jose, and Maria along with others.

The Atlantic base state appears favorable enough this year to the point where a suppressed MJO or CCKW likely won't limit activity much, IMO.

Gonzalo still formed during a suppressed KW in July, although it didn't reach hurricane strength, early MDR development is still a concerning sign for peak.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1287149962954973185

[Aric Dunn]

watch that well defined MLC in the bahamas in the morning. if deep convection builds in association with that it could quickly work to the surface.

[BYG Jacob]

Is being on the “I” storm before August a bad sign? Asking for a friend

[AxaltaRacing24]

Is being on the “I” storm before August a bad sign? Asking for a friend

nah everything's fine /s

[StruThiO]

Is being on the “I” storm before August a bad sign? Asking for a friend

might need to consider a 2013 repeat since gonzalo dissipated

[toad strangler]