ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Can’t remember, did they have Irma recurving at the beginning of its life?

I think every storm that has ever made landfall has had a few model runs that also showed a recurve at some point. To your specific question, yes, Irma was shown as a recurve early on.


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[jlauderdal]

Any thoughts on whether or not the 18z GFS will live up to its happy hour reputation and throw us a crazy solution? If the past is any indicator, 18z will be the “fun run” to watch.


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Many happy hr GFS runs to go.

If i had a dollar for every recurve that ended up in the gulf

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[SouthFLTropics]

Any thoughts on whether or not the 18z GFS will live up to its happy hour reputation and throw us a crazy solution? If the past is any indicator, 18z will be the “fun run” to watch.


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Many happy hr GFS runs to go.

If i had a dollar for every recurve that ended up in the gulf

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Yep...I’m sure you’re ready to fire up the Fort Lauderdale Generator Force Field if necessary though!!!


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[aspen]

Can’t remember, did they have Irma recurving at the beginning of its life?

I still remember the early GFS runs showing Irma as an East Coast Sweeper that plowed into NYC as a Cat 4/5 on 9/11. I’m willing to bet there were also recurve runs that I forgot about.

[TheStormExpert]

Well the trend this afternoon has been for a recurve. Now watch them swing back west tomorrow and show a Gulf solution.

Basically any scenario is on the table right now: a Caribbean cruiser into the Gulf (Emily ‘05), a Lesser/Greater Antilles scraper (Irma ‘17/Dorian ‘19), an East Coast Sweep (Irene ‘11), or a close call out-to-sea major (Earl ‘10). I’ll feel a lot more confident about model solutions in 3-5 days when we have a developing or developed TC getting close to the Lesser Antilles.

It seems the models at least with Gonzalo and Hanna had to readjust south and west as time went on, wonder if the same will happen here?

[HurricaneFrances04]

18Z basically has this as a depression in less than 48 hrs

[caneseddy]

[quote="aspen"][quote="StPeteMike"]Can’t remember, did they have Irma recurving at the beginning of its life?[/quote]
I still remember the early GFS runs showing Irma as an East Coast Sweeper that plowed into NYC as a Cat 4/5 on 9/11. I’m willing to bet there were also recurve runs that I forgot about.[/quote]

I will never forget those runs of the GFS. I also remember the models shifting south and west towards South Florida. Also note the latest GFS and Euro both showed a bend to the left due to HP building to the north, so no one is out of the woods from this one. Yes climo says recurve is more likely than not, but this is 2020 after all and climo pretty much is almost thrown out the window

[AxaltaRacing24]

Can’t remember, did they have Irma recurving at the beginning of its life?

Irma was both recurving and plowing new england/canada on every single early run of most models.

[aspen]

Well the trend this afternoon has been for a recurve. Now watch them swing back west tomorrow and show a Gulf solution.

Basically any scenario is on the table right now: a Caribbean cruiser into the Gulf (Emily ‘05), a Lesser/Greater Antilles scraper (Irma ‘17/Dorian ‘19), an East Coast Sweep (Irene ‘11), or a close call out-to-sea major (Earl ‘10). I’ll feel a lot more confident about model solutions in 3-5 days when we have a developing or developed TC getting close to the Lesser Antilles.

It seems the models at least with Gonzalo and Hanna had to readjust south and west as time went on, wonder if the same will happen here?

I’m definitely intrigued by the not too unlikely possibility of a true Caribbean Cruiser, either one that makes it to the Gulf (Emily and Allen) or keeps on going into Central America (Dean and Felix). Either of those scenarios could favor a stronger system than one that goes north of the Greater Antilles, because of the huge pool of extremely high OHC and SSTs. However, we need to wait and see what the models say once 92L develops and is getting close to the Lesser Antilles. Whether it starts turning north or continues west will significantly narrow down potential tracks and impacts.

[SFLcane]

Can’t remember, did they have Irma recurving at the beginning of its life?

Irma was both recurving and plowing new england/canada on every single early run of most models.

I mentioned this earlier still a long ways to go with this one.

[SouthFLTropics]

Yep...18z up to its happy hour shenanigans. Much deeper and NW of the 12z run.


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[TheStormExpert]

Many happy hr GFS runs to go.

If i had a dollar for every recurve that ended up in the gulf

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Yep...I’m sure you’re ready to fire up the Fort Lauderdale Generator Force Field if necessary though!!!


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I’m sure he’s already fired up the ol’ generator as the models must’ve heard!

Btw, how do you guys get those special emojis on here?

[SFLcane]

Yep...18z up to its happy hour shenanigans. Much deeper and NW of the 12z run.


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Trend is fishy today euro+gfs ensembles. Should recurve easily on this run.

[jlauderdal]

If i had a dollar for every recurve that ended up in the gulf

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Yep...I’m sure you’re ready to fire up the Fort Lauderdale Generator Force Field if necessary though!!!


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I’m sure he’s already fired up the ol’ generator as the models must’ve heard!

Btw, how do you guys get those special emojis on here?

Genny was fired up in june, ready for model wars. Tapatalk on mobile gives emojis

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[SconnieCane]

I’m definitely intrigued by the not too unlikely possibility of a true Caribbean Cruiser, either one that makes it to the Gulf (Emily and Allen) or keeps on going into Central America (Dean and Felix). Either of those scenarios could favor a stronger system than one that goes north of the Greater Antilles, because of the huge pool of extremely high OHC and SSTs. However, we need to wait and see what the models say once 92L develops and is getting close to the Lesser Antilles. Whether it starts turning north or continues west will significantly narrow down potential tracks and impacts.

Don't forget Ivan, the OG of Caribbean Cruisers that made it into the Gulf. Gonzalo was giving me Ivan vibes with that low-rider track into the southern Windwards, until the dry air got to him.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Wouldn't be so sure about a recurve on this run. Looks like it might get pushed into the Carolinas.

[Hurricane Mike]

I don't like how far west these models are going this early.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Same pattern as 12Z, just happens further north

[DestinHurricane]

I may be 100% wrong but doesn't climo favor stronger ridging and less chance of recurve this early in the season?

[ronjon]

Strong 500 mb ridging off midatlantic in 18z GFS forcing the storm into NC and up into southern Chesapeake Bay, the takes a right hook at Norfolk, lol. All 10-11 days out. Entertainment purposes now.