ATL: HANNA - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This has to be one of the biggest fails for the global models I've ever seen. They missed a Cat 1/2 hurricane with less than 48 hours notice, in the Gulf of Mexico, that had a huge wind radius. Even the ECMWF messed this one up.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This has to be one of the biggest fails for the global models I've ever seen. They missed a Cat 1/2 hurricane with less than 48 hours notice, in the Gulf of Mexico, that had a huge wind radius. Even the ECMWF messed this one up.

the models seem worse this year than as far back as 2017.

[Steve]

Their final test will be 48 hour rainfall. I’m not on my cpu so I can’t link. But this is NAM valor for 47 hours. A foot + for Brownsville

NAM 3km
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=47

[Steve]

Here’s the ICON through 48. Icon was very good overall the last week. I’d give it a B. Also a foot plus in Brownsville and toward McAllen. Then 8-10” more toward Monterrey.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=48

[chaser1]

This has to be one of the biggest fails for the global models I've ever seen. They missed a Cat 1/2 hurricane with less than 48 hours notice, in the Gulf of Mexico, that had a huge wind radius. Even the ECMWF messed this one up.

the models seem worse this year than as far back as 2017.

I agree, but if I really think about it this is the only rationale that I can come with. We are witnessing a season where storms are ripping through the alphabet at a pace never seen before. Collectively the broad majority of us had a strong hunch that this year might well be hyperactive. Of course none of us expected the season to ramp up as quickly and continously as it has. So, my point here is that something beyond just SST's or ENSO, is causing practically every disturbance larger then a dinosaur fart to start developing. I don't claim to know what that pixie-dust might be but it's working even in spite of 'ol musty Uncle SAL. Well, this very same elusive pixie-dust is clearly low key enough for our best models to essentially underscore the conducive conditions that are clearly in place. What does this possibly foretell as we tread deeper into the heart of the season?? I'd guess a majority of hurricanes to come that will "overperform" global model forecast intensity guidance. That did not happen with Gonzalo but perhaps prevailing conditions were clearly just to SALty. Those conditions will eventually wane but the pixie-dust might last till November.

[Steve]

^^
Maybe a lesson for 2020 is that in enso-neutral-cooling seasons and absent other dominant signals, MJO might matter. The overall pattern is forcing precipitation in the western reaches of the basin. Hanna isn't the first or the last Gulf storm this year. It's number 3. You can at least expect to double that by November, and we could get as many as 7 or 8. Phase 2 has been hyperactive. We have to be aware of it over the next 2-3 months.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

GFS has the heaviest precip from Matamoros to Monterrey in the next 48 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=48

And to round it out,CMC has the most rainfall over Monterrey.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=48

[chaser1]

^^
Maybe a lesson for 2020 is that in enso-neutral-cooling seasons and absent other dominant signals, MJO might matter. The overall pattern is forcing precipitation in the western reaches of the basin. Hanna isn't the first or the last Gulf storm this year. It's number 3. You can at least expect to double that by November, and we could get as many as 7 or 8. Phase 2 has been hyperactive. We have to be aware of it over the next 2-3 months.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

GFS has the heaviest precip from Matamoros to Monterrey in the next 48 hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=48

And to round it out,CMC has the most rainfall over Monterrey.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 2600&fh=48

I think that makes sense Steve. Sea level pressures have been low and of course we all know how warm the SST's are. There certainly are no obvious mitigating factors with exception to those areas within the basin where SAL exists. It is interesting that the MJO might well be playing a greater enhancing role then what ENSO might even if a more "cool" event were further in place. What I am wondering is to what extent might the MJO more or less remain in phase 2 rather then migrate "around the clock" to other phases which I had thought the MJO had tendency to do?