ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[StPeteMike]

Any thoughts on whether or not the 18z GFS will live up to its happy hour reputation and throw us a crazy solution? If the past is any indicator, 18z will be the “fun run” to watch.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Many happy hr GFS runs to go.

If i had a dollar for every recurve that ended up in the gulf

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

Haha that’s what I thought. Always forecasting a stronger ridge and then by the time a storm gets to islands or north of PR, Ridge is stronger and further west.

[TheStormExpert]

If I recall correctly didn’t early model runs of Irma show it striking North Carolina?

[aspen]

If I recall correctly didn’t early model runs of Irma show it striking North Carolina?

For much of its life, models were showing a strike on the east coast. I remember another run of sub-890 mbar Irma approaching Florida’s Space Coast. As bad as Irma was, some of those GFS runs were originally forecasting something far worse.

[cheezyWXguy]

If I recall correctly didn’t early model runs of Irma show it striking North Carolina?

For much of its life, models were showing a strike on the east coast. I remember another run of sub-890 mbar Irma approaching Florida’s Space Coast. As bad as Irma was, some of those GFS runs were originally forecasting something far worse.

Although the actual outcome differed a bit, the models handled Irma pretty well, though I think I recall a few runs pushing it up the east coast. The difference in track between a landfall in sw Florida and se Florida isn’t much, the only thing that really kept it from being a cat5 into south Florida was a stronger than forecast ridge, which pushed it into Cuba.

I do think that in this context though, we are going to see a lot of windshield wiping in the model tracks beyond the Antilles.

[Hammy]

If I recall correctly didn’t early model runs of Irma show it striking North Carolina?

Irma and Florence both had a sharp east bias to a lot of the models, though Dorian's model output was a lot further west so pretty up in the air at this point.

[sma10]

If I recall correctly didn’t early model runs of Irma show it striking North Carolina?

Irma and Florence both had a sharp east bias to a lot of the models, though Dorian's model output was a lot further west so pretty up in the air at this point.

And let's be honest. Nobody can really say that model performance has been stellar lately. The ONLY model that saw Gonzalo forming was the CMC (!) and 48-72 hrs ago NO model saw Texas getting hit with a hurricane. Knowing that, any solution for 92L should probably be taken with a boulder-sized grain of salt

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has the 00z UKMET?

[ColdMiser123]

Complicated pattern for this system unfortunately. How quickly this trough in the North Atlantic (showed in dashed lines) progresses eastward will also then determine how much ridging can form in its place (shown in a jagged line), and the exact re-curve pattern. The placement of this trough to the west also will determine how much heights can rise for the ridge, and how strong that ridge can get.

[ColdMiser123]

Does anyone has the 00z UKMET?

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.6N 43.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.07.2020 48 13.1N 45.7W 1009 31
1200UTC 28.07.2020 60 13.3N 49.5W 1007 33
0000UTC 29.07.2020 72 14.8N 52.3W 1006 37
1200UTC 29.07.2020 84 15.8N 55.5W 1004 41
0000UTC 30.07.2020 96 16.9N 59.0W 999 48
1200UTC 30.07.2020 108 18.0N 62.3W 994 52
0000UTC 31.07.2020 120 19.4N 65.0W 982 63
1200UTC 31.07.2020 132 21.2N 67.7W 966 72
0000UTC 01.08.2020 144 23.2N 70.1W 964 75

[CrazyC83]

Felix 1995 seems to be one storm that feels similar in terms of setup.

[Hurricane Mike]

Let's see if the system can consolidate today, maybe models will get a better handle on the long-term trends. Still a long way out though.

[cheezyWXguy]

0z gfs shows a recurve just east of the mid Atlantic coast. Looks like a close call between the building ridge to the east and the flattening trough to the west. Seems a little weird to me though that the storm is depicted to plow northeast through the building ridge

[toad strangler]

00z GFS is a hit to the N most Leewards and then a close call at Cape Hatteras before re-curving

[sma10]

00z GFS is a hit to the N most Leewards and then a close call at Cape Hatteras before re-curving

0Z CMC very similar to GFS perhaps a bit further South and west, but significantly SW of its own 12z run

[shah83]

I'm basically of the opinion that it's too early to say much about the future of 92l, because as ColdMiser shows above, it's a sort of a Rube-Goldbergian mechanism for recurve, whether Canada or OTS. That's on top of waiting of the storm to form properly.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm basically of the opinion that it's too early to say much about the future of 92l, because as ColdMiser shows above, it's a sort of a Rube-Goldbergian mechanism for recurve, whether Canada or OTS. That's on top of waiting of the storm to form properly.

No doubt, purely entertainment purposes at this point

[AxaltaRacing24]

I'm basically of the opinion that it's too early to say much about the future of 92l, because as ColdMiser shows above, it's a sort of a Rube-Goldbergian mechanism for recurve, whether Canada or OTS. That's on top of waiting of the storm to form properly.

No doubt, purely entertainment purposes at this point

This is all like 85% fantasy until we are like 5 days out. and even then it is a stretch.

just like how this 00z euro is delaying development just as i typed that.

[SouthFLTropics]

Yep, tonight’s Euro has gone off the reservation and wants to run this straight West through the Hispaniola shredder. Can’t say I’m surprised. Expect many different options over the coming days.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hammy]

Euro is trending towards Erika-2015 redux and even the low-level flow setup looks similar.

[SoupBone]

Euro is trending towards Erika-2015 redux and even the low-level flow setup looks similar.

It looks like it sends that energy into the GoM on 8/4.