EPAC: DOUGLAS - Models

[Kingarabian]

18z GEFS mean is still well south of the operational, however you can see the strongest members diverge and take the system north of the islands for the most part.

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro is a hair south compared to the 12z run and it would be a landfall over Oahu. Or at least easten Oahu would get the strong western eyewall anyway. Also skims Kauai to the north.

[Kingarabian]

00z ICON continues to have a Maui County + Oahu landfall.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS continues a south shift trend and is more south compared to the 18z. Still keeps the core of Douglas north of Oahu.

00z UKMET continues to clear Hawaii to the north.

[Bocadude85]

00z GFS continues a south shift trend and is more south compared to the 18z. Still keeps the core of Douglas north of Oahu.

00z UKMET continues to clear Hawaii to the north.

The GFS has been to far north even in the short term.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS continues a south shift trend and is more south compared to the 18z. Still keeps the core of Douglas north of Oahu.

00z UKMET continues to clear Hawaii to the north.

The GFS has been to far north even in the short term.

00z Canadian still into Maui. Weird how theres so much spread with 24 hours left.

[Bocadude85]

00z GFS continues a south shift trend and is more south compared to the 18z. Still keeps the core of Douglas north of Oahu.

00z UKMET continues to clear Hawaii to the north.

The GFS has been to far north even in the short term.

00z Canadian still into Maui. Weird how theres so much spread with 24 hours left.

Looking at the 0z UKMET, it is south of the 12z and is either a landfall in Oahu or literally just a few miles offshore, same goes for Kauai.

[Kingarabian]

The GFS has been to far north even in the short term.

00z Canadian still into Maui. Weird how theres so much spread with 24 hours left.

Looking at the 0z UKMET, it is south of the 12z and is either a landfall in Oahu or literally just a few miles offshore, same goes for Kauai.

Really? I thought it went 21.8N 156.1W and then 22.3N 159.1W

[Bocadude85]

00z Canadian still into Maui. Weird how theres so much spread with 24 hours left.

Looking at the 0z UKMET, it is south of the 12z and is either a landfall in Oahu or literally just a few miles offshore, same goes for Kauai.

Really? I thought it went 21.8N 156.1W and then 22.3N 159.1W

I could be wrong, I’m looking at it plotted on a grid and it seems to come much closer to Oahu and Kauai, but the resolution is not that great.

[Bocadude85]

0z HWRF is noticeably south of the 18z, looks to either just miss Oahu or actually landfall in Oahu, also now shows a direct hit on Kauai.

[Kingarabian]

00z HWRF now shows an Oahu landfall. Significantly more SW. Wow. It's been more than 6 runs if not more since it last showed any type of landfall.

[Kingarabian]

0z HWRF is noticeably south of the 18z, looks to either just miss Oahu or actually landfall in Oahu, also now shows a direct hit on Kauai.

Yeah that will throw drag the consensus closer to Oahu.

[Kingarabian]

00z GEFS mean continues to ride south of Oahu.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro direct Oahu landfall. North and Central Oahu are in the core.

[Bocadude85]

00z Euro direct Oahu landfall. North and Central Oahu are in the core.

Yes definitely a south trend tonight, perhaps a hurricane warning is warranted for Maui County.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro direct Oahu landfall. North and Central Oahu are in the core.

Yes definitely a south trend tonight, perhaps a hurricane warning is warranted for Maui County.

I wonder if they will shift the official track a bit more south too.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS Parallel continues with an Oahu landfall.

[Bocadude85]

6z TVCN is closer to Oahu and definitely south of the 18z TVCN

[Kingarabian]

00z EPS mean is still south of Oahu. 5-6 ensembles that are strong miss the islands completely.

[Kingarabian]

06z ICON Oahu landfall, shifted north. All that is left is the CMC.