ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#321 Postby storm4u » Sun Jul 26, 2020 2:39 am

cycloneye wrote:Does anyone has the 00z UKMET?



https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#322 Postby GCANE » Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:07 am

How is this starting to take a turn to the NW at 50W?
All I see from GFS are Highs directly north through 500mb.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#323 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:22 am

GCANE wrote:How is this starting to take a turn to the NW at 50W?
All I see from GFS are Highs directly north through 500mb.

i recall it doing the same thing with earlish irma runs too.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#324 Postby USTropics » Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:45 am

The 00z ensemble suites are focused around the northern Leewards/PR through 120 hours:

ECMWF
Image

GFS
Image

CMC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#325 Postby USTropics » Sun Jul 26, 2020 4:51 am

The GFS ensembles have been playing a bit of catch up with the extent of ridging to the north over the past 6 runs:
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#326 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:07 am

Looks like models have trended overnight closer to the Euro. Interaction with Hispaniola changes a lot in the long term

Image

Euro ensembles with a choose your own adventure

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#327 Postby kevin » Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:11 am

06z GFS goes down to 962 mbar at 222 hours and curls away about 100 - 150 km from the coast of North Carolina.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#328 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:24 am

Barely misses SFL just offshore.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#329 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:28 am

Lots of Irma vibes from the models thus far
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#330 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:35 am

Shell Mound wrote:Lots of Irma vibes from the models thus far


GFS is to far right with this one as usual.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#331 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:49 am

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1287142976045625345


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#332 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:53 am



Yeah GFS genesis hasn't been great.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#333 Postby gatorcane » Sun Jul 26, 2020 6:55 am

This is as strong as 92l gets on the 00Z Euro before going over Hispaniola (1005MB) which is not very strong. Interesting how the Euro is now the least bullish of the models when it was the most just a few days back:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#334 Postby otowntiger » Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:37 am

gatorcane wrote:This is as strong as 92l gets on the 00Z Euro before going over Hispaniola (1005MB) which is not very strong. Interesting how the Euro is now the least bullish of the models when it was the most just a few days back:

https://i.postimg.cc/tCZGjKZs/ecmwf-mslpa-Norm-watl-6.png
as they say- the trend is your friend. It does seem that more models are seeing somethings that will inhibit significant development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#335 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jul 26, 2020 7:53 am

SFLcane wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:Lots of Irma vibes from the models thus far


GFS is to far right with this one as usual.


GFS and its ensembles also I believe is overdoing the trough depicted in the medium range.As usual GFS is notorious for overdoing troughs. A positive NAO is forecast for next week . My money is on the EPS ensembles with this. Interesting days ahead...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#336 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:06 am

I'm leaning toward a weaker solution. As crazy as this season is, it's still July. U.S coastline needs to pay attention to this one
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#337 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:07 am

northjaxpro wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:Lots of Irma vibes from the models thus far


GFS is to far right with this one as usual.


GFS and its ensembles also I believe is overdoing the trough depicted in the medium range.As usual GFS is notorious for overdoing troughs. A positive NAO is forecast for next week . My money is on the EPS ensembles with this. Interesting days ahead...

EPS Ensembles have become less bullish on anything significant.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#338 Postby cycloneye » Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:08 am

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#339 Postby Shell Mound » Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:10 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
GFS is to far right with this one as usual.


GFS and its ensembles also I believe is overdoing the trough depicted in the medium range.As usual GFS is notorious for overdoing troughs. A positive NAO is forecast for next week . My money is on the EPS ensembles with this. Interesting days ahead...

EPS Ensembles have become less bullish on anything significant.

https://i.ibb.co/VwPf3gP/888113-E2-6-F2-D-4-E92-B32-B-88-C5433166-F3.png

Both the EC/EPS and G(E)FS have been consistently too weak with the past several systems in the Atlantic. The UKMET suite is probably closer to reality.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#340 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Jul 26, 2020 8:14 am

Shell Mound wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
GFS and its ensembles also I believe is overdoing the trough depicted in the medium range.As usual GFS is notorious for overdoing troughs. A positive NAO is forecast for next week . My money is on the EPS ensembles with this. Interesting days ahead...

EPS Ensembles have become less bullish on anything significant.

https://i.ibb.co/VwPf3gP/888113-E2-6-F2-D-4-E92-B32-B-88-C5433166-F3.png

Both the EC/EPS and G(E)FS have been consistently too weak with the past several systems in the Atlantic. The UKMET suite is probably closer to reality.


Yeah, the UKMET is always a solid model tool My hard line point I am making: Do not fall in love with the GFS solutions folks.this early on....
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