ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[toad strangler]

12Z GFS coming in much stronger through 42 hours

And also looks further north. Assuming nothing changes, may not impact any land on this run

No ridging.

Western flank of ridge will send this to the fishies at 12z

[HurricaneFrances04]

Moving WNW at 114 hrs. Hopefully the ridge breaks down.

[AutoPenalti]

[HurricaneFrances04]

Looks a little weaker, but I'm not sure its going out to sea here. Ridge looks further west vs 6z.

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS greatly picking up the pace on this run. It's a solid 3 degrees further West on this run than the last run through 138 hours. More North as well, but the jump W, the faster overall motion, is notable. Weaker, too.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like the cutoff low near the valley is left behind...

[gatorcane]

Looks like conditions may not be as favorable in the SW Atlantic as I previously thought for 92l...if 92l even makes it there:

[AutoPenalti]

Not as favorable conditions, shear/dry air really going to undercut Isaias. Maybe this season may not be as active as we previously thought, just saying... I kid, it’s only July.

[SFLcane]

Looks like the cutoff low near the valley is left behind...

https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020072612/gfs_z500a_atl_25.png

Na recurves anyway big hole in the ridge. Sheared mess

[HurricaneFrances04]

[tiger_deF]

It's a single model run of the GFS where we are looking 5-10 days ahead, a little premature for season cancel posts. While it's important to look at trends in model runs, the 18z run could go bonkers and this would be almost totally forgotten

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/6jF38IE.gif

Looks like 92L’s own moisture bubble could force a dry pocket in the Caribbean, if I’m interpreting that right. I’m not sure if it would be under threat from sucking that pocket if its moisture bubble is strong enough.

[NewEnglandWX]

Looks like conditions may not be as favorable in the SW Atlantic as I previously thought for 92l...if 92l even makes it there:

https://i.postimg.cc/GphYddQv/gfs-shear-watl-21.png

Based off of one run? The problem this run is that it accelerates too fast into the dry air and becomes decoupled thus not allowing it to form a ULAC because it stays too weak.

[gatorcane]

Looks like conditions may not be as favorable in the SW Atlantic as I previously thought for 92l...if 92l even makes it there:

https://i.postimg.cc/GphYddQv/gfs-shear-watl-21.png

Based off of one run? The problem this run is that it accelerates too fast into the dry air and becomes decoupled thus not allowing it to form a ULAC because it stays too weak.

Based also on yesterday’s JMA which showed weakening between hours 168 and 192 in the same general area.

[HurricaneFrances04]

CMC is a bit faster through 90 hours. Could be a trend of a faster moving disturbance in the short term.

[gatorcane]

CMC is a bit faster through 90 hours. Could be a trend of a faster moving disturbance in the short term.

Looks like the TUTT, albeit weakening, is shearing it and keeping it from really deepening at least through 102 hours.

Edit: through 132 hours CMC is weaker than the 00Z and recurving it.

[NewEnglandWX]

Looks like conditions may not be as favorable in the SW Atlantic as I previously thought for 92l...if 92l even makes it there:

https://i.postimg.cc/GphYddQv/gfs-shear-watl-21.png

Based off of one run? The problem this run is that it accelerates too fast into the dry air and becomes decoupled thus not allowing it to form a ULAC because it stays too weak.

Based also on yesterday’s JMA which showed weakening between hours 168 and 192 in the same general area.

My point is that it's way too early to look at any of the intensity trends. Should've learned that from Gonzalo and Hanna but here you are using the models to predict and storm without an LLC out at 120 something hours. There is a reason the NHC doesn't do cones for invests. Please at least wait until we have a Depression to start doubting the Tropical cyclone.

[mitchell]

GFS greatly picking up the pace on this run. It's a solid 3 degrees further West on this run than the last run through 138 hours. More North as well, but the jump W, the faster overall motion, is notable. Weaker, too.

Pretty amazing difference between the 06 z and 12 z GFS. Almost same track, 12z much faster and recurves off North Carolina as a remnant low, rather than a Cat 2 hurricane. Stay tuned!

[gatorcane]

12Z CMC 132 hours weaker than the 00Z and recurving:

[TheStormExpert]

Yep Dry Air and SAL along with shear get the best of 92L on the 12z GFS. Surprised it doesn’t just plow straight into Hispaniola on this run. Of course we had weak little Gonzalo and Hurricane Hanna but everyone thought the lid was ready to come off and there’s also a favorable Kelvin Wave this week passing the Atlantic so I don’t know what to think.