ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[HurricaneFrances04]

Euro looks like it's still to the SW of the GFS. Seems like a significant difference at 72 hours out.

[MississippiWx]

Just curious, but did any of you pay attention to basically every model missing out on a HURRICANE forming in the Gulf of Mexico this week-even as little as 1-2 days out?

So yeah...I’m sure these 5-6 day model outputs are solid. Until 92L can decide which vort is the dominant one, long range model output is useless.

The thing is they’re or were developing something significant from 92L only to back off on intensity due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions. I see your point but the atmosphere was more favorable in the Gulf for Hanna than what it likely is for 92L.

You don’t see my point if you’re going back and pointing to a long range model for support.

[gatorcane]

Euro looks like it's still to the SW of the GFS. Seems like a significant difference at 72 hours out.

Euro is MUCH weaker too than the GFS. Looks like we have three runs in a row of the Euro showing only weak development into the islands.

[SFLcane]

As always timing is the key. The first thing we need to figure out is where the center forms, until that happens just about anything is on the table. Second we need to see how quickly the trough in Canada is able to erode the ridge. This determines how far west the storm gets initially. The third thing to watch is where exactly the storm is at when that cutoff low occurs. If the storm is already on its way out then there's not much worry for the mainland U.S, however if the storm is a bit delayed(like on the 6z GFS Parallel) then the cutoff low could actually increase the chance of a U.S landfall. The reason is because on both GFS models it sort of works to amplify the ridge and if the storm gets trapped under the ridge then a U.S landfall becomes extremely likely.

There's a lot that needs to be worked out still, if 92L's southerly energy is the one that forms and it take a more southerly track through the Caribbean, we could see some weird things track wise if it isn't quite able to feel the weakness to the north to escape but enough of it to move north in the short term before it gets shunted to the west. Something like Matthew with a more westward bend could happen if it doesn't take the first escape route.

Hi Theprofessor, Matthew 2016?

[SconnieCane]

Euro looks like it's still to the SW of the GFS. Seems like a significant difference at 72 hours out.

Euro is MUCH weaker too than the GFS. Looks like we have three runs in a row of the Euro showing only weak development into the islands.

https://i.postimg.cc/Kzdfmbbc/ecmwf-mslpa-Norm-watl-5.png

...and comes in south of the GA, too; although it could still be headed for the Shredder. With that high to the north though, I don't see a recurve coming from that image.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I hope nobody starts cancelling this season if the models don't show a hurricane by tonight.

Remember Harvey falling apart in LATE August in 2017?

[Shell Mound]

Side note: regardless of 92L’s fate, the 12Z ECMWF shows an extremely prolific African wave train in place by the last day of July.

[ConvergenceZone]

I hope nobody starts cancelling this season if the models don't show a hurricane by tonight.

Remember Harvey falling apart in LATE August in 2017?

Might cancel the rest of July, but definitely not the season.........

[TheProfessor]

As always timing is the key. The first thing we need to figure out is where the center forms, until that happens just about anything is on the table. Second we need to see how quickly the trough in Canada is able to erode the ridge. This determines how far west the storm gets initially. The third thing to watch is where exactly the storm is at when that cutoff low occurs. If the storm is already on its way out then there's not much worry for the mainland U.S, however if the storm is a bit delayed(like on the 6z GFS Parallel) then the cutoff low could actually increase the chance of a U.S landfall. The reason is because on both GFS models it sort of works to amplify the ridge and if the storm gets trapped under the ridge then a U.S landfall becomes extremely likely.

There's a lot that needs to be worked out still, if 92L's southerly energy is the one that forms and it take a more southerly track through the Caribbean, we could see some weird things track wise if it isn't quite able to feel the weakness to the north to escape but enough of it to move north in the short term before it gets shunted to the west. Something like Matthew with a more westward bend could happen if it doesn't take the first escape route.

Hi Theprofessor, Matthew 2016?

Yes, if the storm finds itself in the Caribbean I could see it share a similar track initially, but if the GFS is right about the ridge amplifying back, then it would take a more of bend west than Matthew did. It all depends on where the storm goes in the medium range.

[toad strangler]

12z Euro with a weak wave near Jamaica @144

[gatorcane]

12z Euro with a weak wave near Jamaica @144

[tiger_deF]

Ecmfw continues crashing and dicing 92L over Hispaniola

[chaser1]

12z Euro with a weak wave near Jamaica @144

https://i.postimg.cc/yNx2d7M0/ecmwf-uv850-vort-watl-7.png

That's not a warm and fuzzy look for those in Cuba, Florida, Yucatan, or the GOM. All this model run tells me is that nearer term conditions might appear to be less conducive for development and for a T.S. to form and recurve east of the Lesser Antilles. That would imply potential downstream threat. I'll say this however, I would tend to side with NHC more then any one model regarding near term (1-4 days) development. The Euro 72hr.- 96hr seems plausible. Not sure i'd put much stock beyond that though.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Another case of ECMWF vs. rest of the models...

[Stormcenter]

Excellent point.

Just curious, but did any of you pay attention to basically every model missing out on a HURRICANE forming in the Gulf of Mexico this week-even as little as 1-2 days out?

So yeah...I’m sure these 5-6 day model outputs are solid. Until 92L can decide which vort is the dominant one, long range model output is useless.

[HurricaneFrances04]

I don't see any Euro ensemble members that have this in the western Caribbean. It's either smashing into Hispaniola or NW through the Bahamas.

Edit:

[HurricaneFrances04]

More Canadians on board with the 12Z

[CrazyC83]

https://i.imgur.com/nZyr9um.png

Very similar to Earl 2010 or Edouard 1996.

[CyclonicFury]

I don't think the ECMWF solution is unreasonable. It's still early in the season and conditions in the eastern Caribbean typically are still hostile this early, especially for a weak system. It'll likely get named, but to become a significant hurricane it will likely need to organize some before it gets to the Lesser Antilles.

[ConvergenceZone]

Really glad that the Trend is out to sea.....I wouldn't pay as much attention to it if only 1 or 2 models were taking it out to sea, but when they all start trending it in that direction, they are obviously onto something.....