EPAC: DOUGLAS - Models

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS keeps the system north of the islands but brings it dangerously close to Kauai.
06z HMON shifted back south closer to Oahu but no landfall. Also has 90kt winds which I dont quite believe.

06z HWRF shifted a bit to the north. No landfalls.

[Kingarabian]

06z Euro slightly north shift.
06z EPS/GEFS is Maui County or Oahu landfall
12z ICON has Oahu landfall then dips it south of Kauai.

[Kingarabian]

GFS completely misses the islands but the initial center fix was too far east compared.

[Kingarabian]

12z UKMET has a direct landfall on Kauai. But it also initialized wrong.

HURRICANE DOUGLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 20.6N 153.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.07.2020 0 20.6N 153.5W 990 55
0000UTC 27.07.2020 12 21.6N 156.4W 994 59
1200UTC 27.07.2020 24 22.1N 159.6W 1005 46
0000UTC 28.07.2020 36 22.8N 163.1W 1008 40
1200UTC 28.07.2020 48 23.4N 167.1W 1011 35
0000UTC 29.07.2020 60 23.9N 171.1W 1013 34
1200UTC 29.07.2020 72 CEASED TRACKING

[Kingarabian]

12z CMC landfall over Maui county and Oahu.

[Kingarabian]

12z HMON also completely misses. But it initialized east as well. I guess the models are having an issue resolving the center.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro misses Oahu but effects Kauai.

[Kingarabian]

12z GEFS mean shifts north:

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS mean shifted north and grazes Oahu and impacts Kauai.

[Kingarabian]

Navy nailed this one from the get go surprisingly. Also have to tip my hat to the GFS on this one great work. Euro did ok. CMC and ICON absolutely terrible.