ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

FWIW, here is the 18z Navgem. Looks to be headinh WNW in the last frames of the run




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[TheProfessor]

FWIW, here is the 18z Navgem. Looks to be headinh WNW in the last frames of the run

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200727/008c7e67328cf8708eb37329483d9635.jpg


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There's a general rule, when you're east of the NAVGEM you might be doing something wrong. Obviously that's not quite a rule you can use on every basis, but the NAVGEM is one of the most progressive models and is nearly always on the east side of guidance. It will be interesting to see if it begins to show re-curve as well over the next couple of days.

[aspen]

:eek:

https://iili.io/dTZz6Q.png

https://iili.io/dTZMcN.png

Good old HWRF. The max potential intensity map shows that a storm in that region could theoretically reach 915-930 mbar, so that run isn’t too ridiculous.

[Kazmit]

Guidance has shifting north since this morning with all now clearing the Caribbean islands.

[toad strangler]

Guidance has shifting north since this morning with all now clearing the Caribbean islands.

https://i.imgur.com/Q05yP0n.png

No confidence in any model post Leewards RN.

[SFLcane]

18z track HWRF..

[gatorcane]

FWIW, here is the 18z Navgem. Looks to be headinh WNW in the last frames of the run

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200727/008c7e67328cf8708eb37329483d9635.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There's a general rule, when you're east of the NAVGEM you might be doing something wrong. Obviously that's not quite a rule you can use on every basis, but the NAVGEM is one of the most progressive models and is nearly always on the east side of guidance. It will be interesting to see if it begins to show re-curve as well over the next couple of days.

The NAVGEM goes out much further if you use fnmoc’s site:

[ConvergenceZone]

I think Euro is being stupid making it that weak. I could be wrong, but that's just my opinion...

[AxaltaRacing24]

I think Euro is being stupid making it that weak. I could be wrong, but that's just my opinion...

Possibly, but it is still only July. I am honestly glad it's slowing that. It realistically shows that this isn't a guaranteed lock to become a hurricane.

[Hammy]

I think Euro is being stupid making it that weak. I could be wrong, but that's just my opinion...

More shear over the Caribbean than there is to the north.

[gatorcane]

NASA’s GMAO model is actually quite close to the Euro, just a bit faster with 92l:

[abajan]

Guidance has shifting north since this morning with all now clearing the Caribbean islands.

https://i.imgur.com/Q05yP0n.png

Good. Thing is, with a system this large, feeder bands will likely still be problematic for many of the islands.

[blp]

Flashback:

Future Dorian Invesr 99l Euro Ensembles showing most of them dissipating in the Carribean



92L today:

[DestinHurricane]

FWIW, here is the 18z Navgem. Looks to be headinh WNW in the last frames of the run

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200727/008c7e67328cf8708eb37329483d9635.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There's a general rule, when you're east of the NAVGEM you might be doing something wrong. Obviously that's not quite a rule you can use on every basis, but the NAVGEM is one of the most progressive models and is nearly always on the east side of guidance. It will be interesting to see if it begins to show re-curve as well over the next couple of days.

Interesting. I always heard on this site that the NAVGEM has a left bias. I remember it kept putting Irma in the panhandle when all the other models correctly showed it going up the spine of FL.

[abajan]

Flashback:

Future Dorian Invesr 99l Euro Ensembles showing most of them dissipating in the Carribean
https://i.ibb.co/7gfVXXf/Ad-ZAl-Gg-d.webp


92L today:

https://i.ibb.co/7VPYkJs/us-cyclone-en-087-0-euro-2020072612-15844-481-240.png

Also, part of Dorian's actual path was directly over Barbados, which is south of every member in that cluster.

[TheStormExpert]

Flashback:

Future Dorian Invesr 99l Euro Ensembles showing most of them dissipating in the Carribean
https://i.ibb.co/7gfVXXf/Ad-ZAl-Gg-d.webp


92L today:

https://i.ibb.co/7VPYkJs/us-cyclone-en-087-0-euro-2020072612-15844-481-240.png

Can you repost the pre-Dorian image, it doesn’t show.

[TheProfessor]

FWIW, here is the 18z Navgem. Looks to be headinh WNW in the last frames of the run

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200727/008c7e67328cf8708eb37329483d9635.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There's a general rule, when you're east of the NAVGEM you might be doing something wrong. Obviously that's not quite a rule you can use on every basis, but the NAVGEM is one of the most progressive models and is nearly always on the east side of guidance. It will be interesting to see if it begins to show re-curve as well over the next couple of days.

Interesting. I always heard on this site that the NAVGEM has a left bias. I remember it kept putting Irma in the panhandle when all the other models correctly showed it going up the spine of FL.

Nope, it almost always has a right bias, even worse than the GFS. That's not to say it can't have a left bias for a particular storm, but it's not the usual bias for the NAVGEM.

[SFLcane]

00z guidance tonight.

[TheStormExpert]

00z guidance tonight.

https://iili.io/dTb7A7.jpg

Good consensus.

[Hurricaneman]

Is it me or did the GFS shift farther east, either it will be right and be a possible fish or the GFS will bust hard on track