ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

92L has a tough road ahead.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1287565348359884805

huh, The National Hurricane Center says the opposite

Development within the next 2-5 days is likely, but there’s an ULL forecasted to awaiting 92L in The Bahamas which could shear it apart.

[Hurricane Mike]

After this satellite outage, 92L is looking much better organized. Also, the new model runs are much stronger and further west. Overall, bad trends tonight.

[TheStormExpert]

After this satellite outage, 92L is looking much better organized. Also, the new model runs are much stronger and further west. Overall, bad trends tonight.

Meanwhile the GFS trends further East away from The Bahamas. I definitely wouldn’t call the trends bad, if anything they’ve been good.

[Hurricaneman]

After this satellite outage, 92L is looking much better organized. Also, the new model runs are much stronger and further west. Overall, bad trends tonight.

All the models except the GFS

Also it looks like this is a depression, let’s see if the NHC declare it by 5 or 11 AM

[Hurricane Mike]

I haven't been as big a fan of the GFS lately. I'm looking at trends with the hurricane models, as well as some Navy models.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I think that they will go with either 90/90, 90/100 or 100/100 next outlook. This needs a TCFA on it,

[CyclonicFury]

I think that they will go with either 90/90, 90/100 or 100/100 next outlook. This needs a TCFA on it,

I don't see a reason to go 100/100 yet, the LLC is still broad as confirmed by ASCAT.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I think that they will go with either 90/90, 90/100 or 100/100 next outlook. This needs a TCFA on it,

I don't see a reason to go 100/100 yet, the LLC is still broad as confirmed by ASCAT.

Can you show us captain.

[CyclonicFury]

I think that they will go with either 90/90, 90/100 or 100/100 next outlook. This needs a TCFA on it,

I don't see a reason to go 100/100 yet, the LLC is still broad as confirmed by ASCAT.

Can you show us captain.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I don't see a reason to go 100/100 yet, the LLC is still broad as confirmed by ASCAT.

Can you show us captain.

https://i.imgur.com/FqVaKvC_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

That was from five hours ago, it has improved significantly since then. Can you explain to me how to post pictures here that you save on your devices.

[tiger_deF]

Can you show us captain.

https://i.imgur.com/FqVaKvC_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

That was from five hours ago, it has improved significantly since then. Can you explain to me how to post pictures here that you save on your devices.

You could upload it to imgur and just use the image link

[captainbarbossa19]

92L has a tough road ahead.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1287565348359884805

huh, The National Hurricane Center says the opposite

Lets wait until it's upgraded to make any claims about what they're saying about future intensity as the discussion focuses only on development chances--and it shouldn't be a very long wait given the satellite appearance.

Yes, I like the idea of waiting. It seems to me that a lot of negative factors like wind shear and dry air were in the way of another storm from developing just last year. It eventually became a Category 5 and wrecked part of the Bahamas. At this time, there is not any reason to believe that this system will become so intense, but it just shows that any storm has a chance of becoming strong if given the right conditions.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1287457333304532992



 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1287457968427065344



 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1287460042241970176



 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1287471235098644481



 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1287476489060057088

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Hanna, located inland over northeastern Mexico.

1. Shower activity continues to become a little better organized
in association with a broad area of low pressure located over the
central tropical Atlantic about midway between the coast of Africa
and the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to
become increasingly conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the
next day or two while moving westward to west-northwestward at
15 to 20 mph. This system is expected to begin affecting portions
of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday or Wednesday night, and
interests on those islands should continue to monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Public Advisories on Hanna are issued under AWIPS header TCPAT3,
WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Forecaster Berg

[Shell Mound]

Currently, the GFS actually appears to be handling the convective evolution of 92L better than the ECMWF, perhaps due to the upwelling CCKW. Based on current IR imagery, there is more convection in association with 92L than the ECMWF has been forecasting. This implies that the short-term intensity will likely be stronger than the ECMWF indicates, implying a track over or just north of the Leeward Islands/Puerto Rico, as opposed to a Caribbean-centric solution. Cloud tops are also colder than the ECMWF has been indicating. Given the vigour of the circulation, as soon as a low-level centre consolidates, 92L could certainly deepen faster than anticipated. Additionally, given its sprawling size, 92L may be able to handle the TUTT better than a compact system.

[CrazyC83]

How to pronounce Isaias? I found this very useful.

 https://twitter.com/IreneSans/status/1287271727517638656

[sma10]

How to pronounce Isaias? I found this very useful.

https://twitter.com/IreneSans/status/1287271727517638656

With all due respect .... worst. name. ever.

[djones65]

I just heard that Isaias just said the EXACT same thing about "sma10!"

[CM2]

It will have an issue with dry air reguardless.

[TheProfessor]

I must say, if this thing ever reaches its full potential and gets some of the good venting that Hanna got with more time over water, it's going to be a monster.