2020 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Record Breaking Calm Typhoon Season 2020, why?

[youtube]https://youtu.be/gzyjKiSHLQE[/youtube]

[euro6208]

2020 is now tied with 1975 for the latest on record for the 3rd storm.

Latest 03W dates, and how many TC's each year went on to have...

1) 1975, TS Mamie, July 27, 25 tropical cyclones
2) 2020, N/A, July 27 or later.
3) 1998, TS No Name, July 25, 27 tropical cyclones


How is 04W, the next storm looking? Let's see how far up the ranks this one has climbed...

1) 1998, TY Otto, August 2, 27 tropical cyclones
2) 1975, STY Nina, July 31, 25 tropical cyclones (a super typhoon!)
3) 2020, N/A, July 27 or later.
3) 2016, TS Lupit, July 23, 32 tropical cyclones
4) 1983, STY Wayne, July 22, 25 tropical cyclones

How is our 5th storm?

1) 2010, TS Dianmu, August 8, 20 tropical cyclones (the record low!)
2) 1998, TS Penny, August 6, 27 tropical cyclones
2) 1975, TD 05W, August 6, 25 tropical cyclones
4) 1983, STY Abby, August 5, 25 tropical cyclones
5) 2007, TY Usagi, July 28, 27 tropical cyclones
6) 2020, N/A, July 27 or later
7) 2016, TS Mirinae, July 25, 32 tropical cyclones
8) 1969, STY Viola, July 21, 23 tropical cyclones

And now, 06W is now inside the top 10...

1) 1998, TY Rex, August 24, 27 tropical cyclones
2) 2010, TY Mindulle, August 22, 20 tropical cyclones (record low!)
3) 1983, TS Carmen, August 12, 25 tropical cyclones
4) 1975, TY Ora, August 10, 25 tropical cyclones
5) 2007, TD 06W, August 2, 27 tropical cyclones
6) 2016, TY Nida, July 29, 32 tropical cyclones
6) 1969, TS Winnie, July 29, 23 tropical cyclones
8) 1970, TD 06W, July 28, 27 tropical cyclones
9) 2020, N/A, July 27 or later
10) 1995, TS No Name, July 26, 35 tropical cyclones
11) 1984, TY Dinah, July 24, 30 tropical cyclones

[doomhaMwx]

Thanks for sharing all of these but I think it would be more appreciated if you put contents with the same thoughts into just 1 reply as much as possible? Your 8 replies within the last hour or so can be minimized into just 2 or 3.

[euro6208]

Years in front of 2020 could end up as low as 20 or as high as 35.

It would be pretty shocking if this season ended up with less than 20...

20 elsewhere would be considered a normal to above average season.

Pretty wide range.

We will find out what the world's most active basin is up too.

[euro6208]

2020 is now tied with 1975 for the latest on record for the 3rd storm.

Latest 03W dates, and how many TC's each year went on to have...

1) 1975, TS Mamie, July 27, 25 tropical cyclones
2) 2020, N/A, July 27 or later.
3) 1998, TS No Name, July 25, 27 tropical cyclones


How is 04W, the next storm looking? Let's see how far up the ranks this one has climbed...

1) 1998, TY Otto, August 2, 27 tropical cyclones
2) 1975, STY Nina, July 31, 25 tropical cyclones (a super typhoon!)
3) 2020, N/A, July 27 or later.
3) 2016, TS Lupit, July 23, 32 tropical cyclones
4) 1983, STY Wayne, July 22, 25 tropical cyclones

How is our 5th storm?

1) 2010, TS Dianmu, August 8, 20 tropical cyclones (the record low!)
2) 1998, TS Penny, August 6, 27 tropical cyclones
2) 1975, TD 05W, August 6, 25 tropical cyclones
4) 1983, STY Abby, August 5, 25 tropical cyclones
5) 2007, TY Usagi, July 28, 27 tropical cyclones
6) 2020, N/A, July 27 or later
7) 2016, TS Mirinae, July 25, 32 tropical cyclones
8) 1969, STY Viola, July 21, 23 tropical cyclones

And now, 06W is now inside the top 10...

1) 1998, TY Rex, August 24, 27 tropical cyclones
2) 2010, TY Mindulle, August 22, 20 tropical cyclones (record low!)
3) 1983, TS Carmen, August 12, 25 tropical cyclones
4) 1975, TY Ora, August 10, 25 tropical cyclones
5) 2007, TD 06W, August 2, 27 tropical cyclones
6) 2016, TY Nida, July 29, 32 tropical cyclones
6) 1969, TS Winnie, July 29, 23 tropical cyclones
8) 1970, TD 06W, July 28, 27 tropical cyclones
9) 2020, N/A, July 27 or later
10) 1995, TS No Name, July 26, 35 tropical cyclones
11) 1984, TY Dinah, July 24, 30 tropical cyclones

Looking likely we will break the record for the 3rd, 4th, and 5th storm on record.

[1900hurricane]

Persistent Mei-yu rains have apparently caused some pretty bad flooding in China, especially along the Yangtze river.

[euro6208]

:uarrow: Thanks for sharing all of these but I think it would be more appreciated if you put contents with the same thoughts into just 1 reply as much as possible? Your 8 replies within the last hour or so can be minimized into just 2 or 3.

Thanks for that suggestion.

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1287344340164124672

[Hayabusa]

That July TC is still there in 12Z GFS, July won't give up?

[euro6208]

Looks like this is what the EURO and GFS are developing. There is widespread disparity.

[mrbagyo]

there's indeed some westerly component on this blob of convection just below 10°N

[1900hurricane]

Ironically, the next bit of basin activity might come via the EPac if the latest Douglas forecast from the CPHC verifies in the extended taus.

[euro6208]

GFS still has a significant TC developing in 90 hours with potential impacts to Luzon, Taiwan, and China.

[euro6208]

Definitely starting to see some change in the weather pattern. It has become more active the past several days with a weak monsoon trough trying to develop over the Philippine Sea and disturbances slowly moving through Micronesia.

[doomhaMwx]

Model sol'ns are converging towards a monsoon gyre establishing around the PHL a few days from now (~72hrs). We'll likely see multiple low pressure systems emerge from the gyre down the road, but as usual with this set-up, models are gonna have a hard time figuring out when/where exactly will they form.

[1900hurricane]

More signs of life from guidance.

[euro6208]

GFS for three runs now has multiple cyclones developing with the dominant system aiming for East Asia.

[euro6208]

91W Thread

[doomhaMwx]

Models have another low forming w/in the next couple of days along the eastern periphery of the monsoon gyre flow where 91W is located. They aren't too enthusiastic about it though. Let's see.

[Hurricanehink]

With Douglas now no longer a tropical cyclone, it won’t enter the western Pacific, so there still a chance the basin will go without a storm through the rest of the month.