ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#501 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:18 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Is it me or did the GFS shift farther east, either it will be right and be a possible fish or the GFS will bust hard on track

it did.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#502 Postby Kazmit » Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:19 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Is it me or did the GFS shift farther east, either it will be right and be a possible fish or the GFS will bust hard on track

Yep, way more east after 100 hours, and falls apart between Bermuda and the east coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#503 Postby caneseddy » Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:19 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:Is it me or did the GFS shift farther east, either it will be right and be a possible fish or the GFS will bust hard on track


Yes it has shifted east all day today. While it may be right, based on its track record so far this season, I’m hesitant to be confident in its solution at this time
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#504 Postby sma10 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:23 pm

caneseddy wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:Is it me or did the GFS shift farther east, either it will be right and be a possible fish or the GFS will bust hard on track


Yes it has shifted east all day today. While it may be right, based on its track record so far this season, I’m hesitant to be confident in its solution at this time


Things are still tricky, especially due to the huge size of the circulation. UKMet suggests in 36hrs a center up around 14.5N, but CMC is way further south and west
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#505 Postby Fancy1001 » Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:40 pm

Kazmit wrote:
SFLcane wrote:HWRF is way south heading WNW. :eek:

https://iili.io/dTZBwu.gif

Only thing I can think of when I see this is a particular storm from a few years ago.

I think it also began with an I, oh what was its name? :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#506 Postby Hammy » Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:50 pm

CMC is definitely not a desirable scenario, weakens it in the Bahamas where it then follows an almost identical track to Bob in 1991.


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#507 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:03 am

Not a good run of the CMC. Worse case senario is this thing is weakened by the SAL and some shear so it gets closer to the coast and is trapped by the building ridge, then the unfavorable conditions lift and it rapidly intensifies.
Last edited by Hybridstorm_November2001 on Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#508 Postby Beef Stew » Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:10 am

Given the performance of the GFS on Gonzalo and Hanna and the fact that it finally began to cue in on 92L's development just during yesterday's runs, I can't say that I currently put too much stock into it. One has to wonder just how much the current dearth of airliner data due to COVID is adding to this discrepancy. Additionally, the trend to push systems in their earlier stages OTS (e.g. Irma, Florence) due to a seeming weak ridging bias comes to mind... suffice it to say, until we at the very least have a defined cyclone, any trends from the GFS (or any models, for that matter) should be taken with a huge grain of salt, and all interests- be them in the islands, gulf coast, or east coast- shouldn't let their guard down. It's going to be a long week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#509 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:08 am

00z ECMWF keeps this very broad and struggles to close off a well-defined circulation through 72 hours. The NHC seems very confident though, so we'll see.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#510 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:10 am

Looks like the Euro is not going to budge and insists on taking 92L into the Eastern Caribbean. I think all of the global models are struggling with the shear size and competing centers on 92L. Once we get a consolidated center, hopefully the model picture will become clearer.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#511 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:19 am

00z HWRF brings a low end Cat 1 North of Cuba and East of Abaco in 126 hours. HWRF has backed off intensity wise but is holding steady on a more southern track.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#512 Postby Shell Mound » Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:23 am

SouthFLTropics wrote:00z HWRF brings a low end Cat 1 North of Cuba and East of Abaco

You must mean Andros. By 126 hours the system is approaching the southernmost tip of Andros in the SW Bahamas and is moving WNW.

Note, however, that the intensity is basically steady on days three through five—with the MSLP generally ranging from ~980–5 mb.
Last edited by Shell Mound on Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#513 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:24 am

Shell Mound wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:00z HWRF brings a low end Cat 1 North of Cuba and East of Abaco

You must mean Andros. By 126 hours the system is approaching the southernmost tip of Andros in the SW Bahamas and is moving WNW.

Yes, I did mean Andros. It’s late...


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#514 Postby CM2 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 1:56 am

Well the GFS-Para has quite a solution to the dry air problem... rapidly intensify right as it gets near the coast. Also what is the GFS-Para, just the old GFS like the FV3 or a new "beta" GFS?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#515 Postby USTropics » Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:00 am

CM2 wrote:Well the GFS-Para has quite a solution to the dry air problem... rapidly intensify right as it gets near the coast. Also what is the GFS-Para, just the old GFS like the FV3 or a new "beta" GFS?
https://imgur.com/iEfdlgh


It's basically testing new updates for the GFS. It runs as secondary to the current GFS operational runs, but will eventually replace the operational GFS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#516 Postby CM2 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:07 am

USTropics wrote:It's basically testing new updates for the GFS. It runs as secondary to the current GFS operational runs, but will eventually replace the operational GFS.

Thanks for the word! Also here is the latest GEPS run

Also might as well show the trend of the last 6 runs of the GEPS as well to show it weaker and is going more in line with the GFS and NAVGEM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#517 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:38 am

The GFS seems to be way east of all other models by a large margin, could it be dropping the ridge too quickly
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#518 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:41 am

Hurricaneman wrote:The GFS seems to be way east of all other models by a large margin, could it be dropping the ridge too quickly

it's either onto something or on something :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#519 Postby CM2 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 2:52 am

Hurricaneman wrote:The GFS seems to be way east of all other models by a large margin, could it be dropping the ridge too quickly

You say this but let me show you the lastest GFS-Para run. Surely is quite the interesting situation they brought to the table now. A slow moving storm to the Carolina's/East Coast with a sudden ridge pushing it west slowly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#520 Postby CM2 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 3:04 am

CM2 wrote:You say this but let me show you the lastest GFS-Para run. Surely is quite the interesting situation they brought to the table now. A slow moving storm to the Carolina's/East Coast with a sudden ridge pushing it west slowly.

Well the very thing the GFS, and honestly every model in existance, is having trouble with is upper level high pressure systems which caused all the fuss on if Dorain was gonna hit Florida or not. You can see this upper level high splits and pushes itself up north of the storm which stops the storm's northern push and instead brings the storm over to the east at a relative crawl.
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