ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[SFLcane]

06z guidance just rolling in keeps this as a TS for now.

[TheStormExpert]

00z EPS is much less enthusiastic. Probably time to put this Invest to rest.

[OuterBanker]

Is it time for!

"It's dead Jim"

[northjaxpro]

Is it time for!

"It's dead Jim"

No! HELL NO. You know better than that right now.

[AutoPenalti]

Y’all are funny.

> This invest is dead
> Shows Cat 1 on EPS heading for Florida multiple runs in a row
> Still out in open water, with 80/90
> It’s dead, Jim!

[toad strangler]

00z EPS is much less enthusiastic. Probably time to put this Invest to rest.

https://i.ibb.co/r2J9HNS/4-D8-AFE54-8-CA1-44-FB-96-CA-73-B982-DBC104.png

Said nobody with experience, ever. Even if you end up correct, it's shows inexperience.

[WeatherEmperor]

Did they stop running HWRF and HMON? They havent updated since last night


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[TheStormExpert]

00z EPS is much less enthusiastic. Probably time to put this Invest to rest.

https://i.ibb.co/r2J9HNS/4-D8-AFE54-8-CA1-44-FB-96-CA-73-B982-DBC104.png

Said nobody with experience, ever. Even if you end up correct, it's shows inexperience.

Why do you keep quoting me if you’re just going to say something snarky?

We’re all weather enthusiasts, not meteorologists.

[aspen]

Here are the latest global model solutions for 92L.

GFS: moderate TS passing north of the islands, falls apart at the Bahamas

Euro: still rams it into every single island in the Greater Antilles

CMC: same path as the GFS and also has it struggle until it takes off once it reaches the Bahamas/Gulf Stream; landfall in New England

NAVGEM: hasn’t loaded yet. It’s never loaded when I check on it.

ICON: basically the same as the GFS


Right now I’m thinking the CMC might be on to something because development of 92L will likely be slow due to its large size and the fact that SAL is still a thing, but it could get itself together once SSTs start to rise closer to the SEUS coast and the Bahamas. Gulf Stream waters are incredibly warm, up to 31 C off of the GA/SC coast. A system that passes over it and is within other favorable conditions could intensify into a hurricane, whether it tracks into the coast or continues out to sea, solutions that the CMC has been back-and-forth on for a while now.

[toad strangler]

00z EPS is much less enthusiastic. Probably time to put this Invest to rest.

https://i.ibb.co/r2J9HNS/4-D8-AFE54-8-CA1-44-FB-96-CA-73-B982-DBC104.png

Said nobody with experience, ever. Even if you end up correct, it's shows inexperience.

Why do you keep quoting me if you’re just going to say something snarky?

We’re all weather enthusiasts, not meteorologists.

You said it was probably time to put this Invest to rest. That's ridiculous. I mean no ill will

[supercane4867]

Y’all are funny.

> This invest is dead
> Shows Cat 1 on EPS heading for Florida multiple runs in a row
> Still out in open water, with 80/90
> It’s dead, Jim!

We came to the point that expectations are so high that any underperformance in July means the season is probably cancelled.

[TheStormExpert]

Here are the latest global model solutions for 92L.

GFS: moderate TS passing north of the islands, falls apart at the Bahamas

Euro: still rams it into every single island in the Greater Antilles

CMC: same path as the GFS and also has it struggle until it takes off once it reaches the Bahamas/Gulf Stream; landfall in New England

NAVGEM: hasn’t loaded yet. It’s never loaded when I check on it.

ICON: basically the same as the GFS


Right now I’m thinking the CMC might be on to something because development of 92L will likely be slow due to its large size and the fact that SAL is still a thing, but it could get itself together once SSTs start to rise closer to the SEUS coast and the Bahamas. Gulf Stream waters are incredibly warm, up to 31 C off of the GA/SC coast. A system that passes over it and is within other favorable conditions could intensify into a hurricane, whether it tracks into the coast or continues out to sea, solutions that the CMC has been back-and-forth on for a while now.

At least when I checked the upper level environment for when it reaches The Bahamas it looks like there will be an Upper-Level low which will create an unfavorable environment for 92L. Of course this could change on a dime but a few days ago models weren’t showing this especially the GFS when it kept insisting on a hurricane coming close or into the U.S. East Coast.

[NDG]

06z Euro continues to show nothing but a strong wave passing through the Lesser Antilles.
I say it will be a system to watch in the western basin near the Bahamas, with it not going OTS as the Bermuda ridge will be gaining strength by this weekend into early next week.

[StruThiO]

00z EPS is much less enthusiastic. Probably time to put this Invest to rest.

lol

Is it time for!

"It's dead Jim"

lol

[aspen]

Here are the latest global model solutions for 92L.

GFS: moderate TS passing north of the islands, falls apart at the Bahamas

Euro: still rams it into every single island in the Greater Antilles

CMC: same path as the GFS and also has it struggle until it takes off once it reaches the Bahamas/Gulf Stream; landfall in New England

NAVGEM: hasn’t loaded yet. It’s never loaded when I check on it.

ICON: basically the same as the GFS


Right now I’m thinking the CMC might be on to something because development of 92L will likely be slow due to its large size and the fact that SAL is still a thing, but it could get itself together once SSTs start to rise closer to the SEUS coast and the Bahamas. Gulf Stream waters are incredibly warm, up to 31 C off of the GA/SC coast. A system that passes over it and is within other favorable conditions could intensify into a hurricane, whether it tracks into the coast or continues out to sea, solutions that the CMC has been back-and-forth on for a while now.

At least when I checked the upper level environment for when it reaches The Bahamas it looks like there will be an Upper-Level low which will create an unfavorable environment for 92L. Of course this could change on a dime but a few days ago models weren’t showing this especially the GFS when it kept insisting on a hurricane coming close or into the U.S. East Coast.

If it changed that quickly, there’s nothing saying it can’t quickly change again. We still have 5-7 days before 92L reaches that area...and I wouldn’t exclude the possibility of this trying to sneak into the Gulf.

[chaser1]

00z EPS is much less enthusiastic. Probably time to put this Invest to rest.

https://i.ibb.co/r2J9HNS/4-D8-AFE54-8-CA1-44-FB-96-CA-73-B982-DBC104.png

Just wow..... seriously?

[SFLcane]

12z model suite..

[Steve H.]

Yeah, I don't understand calling something dead that hasn't been born yet. I see some evidence now that some convection is beginning to build, and I believe that the invest will become a formidable system by week's end. We watch and wait.

[chaser1]

12z model suite..

https://i.imgur.com/j2FoGf9.jpg

Models seem very clustered. Unfortunately, models are still attempting to initialize a COC that just doesn't exist. The one takeaway however is that models were clustered further east a day or two ago. They'll keep shifting west as this "atmospheric asteroid" continues westward prior to finally consolidating. S. Florida could easily be that eventual ground-zero but i'm thinking via a different path.

[Stormcenter]

Interesting that the track keeps on shifting further south
some with each model run before it turns north.