ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[St0rmTh0r]

12z model suite..

https://i.imgur.com/j2FoGf9.jpg

Models seem very clustered. Unfortunately, models are still attempting to initialize a COC that just doesn't exist. The one takeaway however is that models were clustered further east a day or two ago. They'll keep shifting west as this "atmospheric asteroid" continues westward prior to finally consolidating. S. Florida could easily be that eventual ground-zero but i'm thinking via a different path.

Very worried about Florida and other areas if this gets going MASSIVE storm surge potential with this.

[sma10]

00z EPS is much less enthusiastic. Probably time to put this Invest to rest.

https://i.ibb.co/r2J9HNS/4-D8-AFE54-8-CA1-44-FB-96-CA-73-B982-DBC104.png

This is an odd take, given the current look of the invest + the subpar model performance this season on genesis

[St0rmTh0r]

12z model suite..

https://i.imgur.com/j2FoGf9.jpg

Inching closer and closer to Florida, we will see...

[karenfromheaven]

HAFS is still very fish-like:

[St0rmTh0r]

Interesting that the track keeps on shifting further south
some with each model run before it turns north.

This definitely feels a lot like Irma we will see but when they keep trending south it's a sign.

[stormlover2013]

Looks like euro is nailing this!! Gfs is weaker and weaker

[aspen]

Looks like euro is nailing this!! Gfs is weaker and weaker

The only reason the Euro is weak is because it’s further south than the rest of the models and rams 92L into every single island it can. The GFS, CMC, and ICON all show some weakening, but their tracks are north of the islands, and some runs have the system recover when it goes over the Gulf Stream. The NAVGEM also has the same track north of the major islands, although it’s far more aggressive.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Ok, I'm going to reference 2005, but the pattern is a bit similar so, here it goes.
In 2005 we had systems like this that struggled the entire way across moving very quickly like this is doing. They never looked like anything would become of them. The models were not initially anything but mildly interested, but once they got to a certain point where the trade wins relaxed near or north of the Islands where you get natural convergence due to the winds slowing down...boom! You're going to have a troff split with one part backing SW and the other part going out with heights building behind. I would not be surprised to see this come up north of the islands and through the Florida Straits.
Look at what you see...
before at what will be.

[stormlover2013]

Looks like euro is nailing this!! Gfs is weaker and weaker

The only reason the Euro is weak is because it’s further south than the rest of the models and rams 92L into every single island it can. The GFS, CMC, and ICON all show some weakening, but their tracks are north of the islands, and some runs have the system recover when it goes over the Gulf Stream. The NAVGEM also has the same track north of the major islands, although it’s far more aggressive.

Euro is king that’s why

[Blown Away]

Looks like euro is nailing this!! Gfs is weaker and weaker

The only reason the Euro is weak is because it’s further south than the rest of the models and rams 92L into every single island it can. The GFS, CMC, and ICON all show some weakening, but their tracks are north of the islands, and some runs have the system recover when it goes over the Gulf Stream. The NAVGEM also has the same track north of the major islands, although it’s far more aggressive.

Euro is king that’s why

I’m in the Euro is King fan club to, but a few days ago it was sending a decent TS/Hurricane into the GOM and @SFL for a few runs, so it’s not a sure thing and at times has issues with intensity.

[Evil Jeremy]

Ok, I'm going to reference 2005, but the pattern is a bit similar so, here it goes.
In 2005 we had systems like this that struggled the entire way across moving very quickly like this is doing. They never looked like anything would become of them. The models were not initially anything but mildly interested, but once they got to a certain point where the trade wins relaxed near or north of the Islands where you get natural convergence due to the winds slowing down...boom! You're going to have a troff split with one part backing SW and the other part going out with heights building behind. I would not be surprised to see this come up north of the islands and through the Florida Straits.
Look at what you see...
before at what will be.

Here is a cone for TD 10, just about in the same spot that 92L is currently:



It died the next day, then reformed a week later in the Bahamas.... And we all know what happened next. Granted, it wasn't speeding across the Atlantic, but the rest of your points hold true.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS barely even has a Depression at this point.

[sma10]

Ukmet, weaker, but significantly further SW

[aspen]

Looks like euro is nailing this!! Gfs is weaker and weaker

The only reason the Euro is weak is because it’s further south than the rest of the models and rams 92L into every single island it can. The GFS, CMC, and ICON all show some weakening, but their tracks are north of the islands, and some runs have the system recover when it goes over the Gulf Stream. The NAVGEM also has the same track north of the major islands, although it’s far more aggressive.

Euro is king that’s why

Euro and GFS have been busting badly since December 2019, either overhyping systems (Kammuri and Nisarga), under-hyping systems (Gonzalo and Hanna), or being full of phantoms (80% of everything they’ve shown in the EPac). I’m only looking at the track and general intensity trends they show, and even at that I’m somewhat skeptical.

[aspen]

12z GFS barely even has a Depression at this point.

It’s really struggling with that broad circulation and figuring out where, if, or how it will coalesce.

[gatorcane]

Clearly model support is becoming more bearish unless you look at the less reliable models. The GFS barely has anything now on the 12Z GFS. Conditions just are not that favorable. Look at that dry air:

[St0rmTh0r]

The only reason the Euro is weak is because it’s further south than the rest of the models and rams 92L into every single island it can. The GFS, CMC, and ICON all show some weakening, but their tracks are north of the islands, and some runs have the system recover when it goes over the Gulf Stream. The NAVGEM also has the same track north of the major islands, although it’s far more aggressive.

Euro is king that’s why

Euro and GFS have been busting badly since December 2019, either overhyping systems (Kammuri and Nisarga), under-hyping systems (Gonzalo and Hanna), or being full of phantoms (80% of everything they’ve shown in the EPac). I’m only looking at the track and general intensity trends they show, and even at that I’m somewhat skeptical.

Not to offend anyone but I think the models should be disregarded completely as far as long range forecasts. It makes no sense to bank on them when they consistently fail time and time again that's insanity. I think people on here are smart enough to look at real time and make more accurate predictions than these models

[TheStormExpert]

Clearly model support is becoming more bearish unless you look at the less reliable models. The GFS barely has anything now on the 12Z GFS. Conditions just are not that favorable. Look at that dry air:

https://i.postimg.cc/bYbddRR6/gfs-mid-RH-watl-17.png

Kudos to you gatorcane for calling this out several days ago when the models were more in love with development. Will likely have to wait several more weeks until mid-August at least until the lid potentially comes off.

[stormlover2013]

Real simple euro is Jordan and GFS is king games!!!! Jordan gets its done when it matters and lebron is up and down and doesn’t get it done when it matters very often

[St0rmTh0r]

Ukmet, weaker, but significantly further SW

not suprising at all we all saw this coming