ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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sma10
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#561 Postby sma10 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:35 am

I know this happened a really long time ago so some people might've forgotten .. but the TX coast once got hit with a hurricane named Hanna that 48hrs prior to landfall both the GFS and Euro showed nada. Just a reminder that the models have struggled a bit
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St0rmTh0r
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#562 Postby St0rmTh0r » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:40 am

sma10 wrote:I know this happened a really long time ago so some people might've forgotten .. but the TX coast once got hit with a hurricane named Hanna that 48hrs prior to landfall both the GFS and Euro showed nada. Just a reminder that the models have struggled a bit

That's an epic fail! Imagine if it was a major and lives were lost. Struggled a bit is an understatement
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#563 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:41 am

sma10 wrote:I know this happened a really long time ago so some people might've forgotten .. but the TX coast once got hit with a hurricane named Hanna that 48hrs prior to landfall both the GFS and Euro showed nada. Just a reminder that the models have struggled a bit



Euro showed strong tropical wave/depression all last week dunno what ur talking about
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#564 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:42 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#565 Postby sma10 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:42 am

stormlover2013 wrote:
sma10 wrote:I know this happened a really long time ago so some people might've forgotten .. but the TX coast once got hit with a hurricane named Hanna that 48hrs prior to landfall both the GFS and Euro showed nada. Just a reminder that the models have struggled a bit



Euro showed strong tropical wave/depression all last week dunno what ur talking about


Strong tropical wave, congrats.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#566 Postby St0rmTh0r » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:42 am

stormlover2013 wrote:Real simple euro is Jordan and GFS is king games!!!! Jordan gets its done when it matters and lebron is up and down and doesn’t get it done when it matters very often

More like Kwame Brown and Eddie Curry lol just cant buy a bucket. They air balled hanna with 2 seconds to go
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#567 Postby St0rmTh0r » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:45 am

sma10 wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:
sma10 wrote:I know this happened a really long time ago so some people might've forgotten .. but the TX coast once got hit with a hurricane named Hanna that 48hrs prior to landfall both the GFS and Euro showed nada. Just a reminder that the models have struggled a bit



Euro showed strong tropical wave/depression all last week dunno what ur talking about


Strong tropical wave, congrats.

Still a failure overall computer models in the year 2020 should be pin point accurate. Time for quantum weather computers
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#568 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:46 am

sma10 wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:
sma10 wrote:I know this happened a really long time ago so some people might've forgotten .. but the TX coast once got hit with a hurricane named Hanna that 48hrs prior to landfall both the GFS and Euro showed nada. Just a reminder that the models have struggled a bit



Euro showed strong tropical wave/depression all last week dunno what ur talking about


Strong tropical wave, congrats.


Ensembles nailed it showing tropical storm also so euro did really well
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#569 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:54 am

stormlover2013 wrote:
sma10 wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:

Euro showed strong tropical wave/depression all last week dunno what ur talking about


Strong tropical wave, congrats.


Ensembles nailed it showing tropical storm also so euro did really well


The operational showing a wave, not even a closed system, on the run you chose to share, and ensembles showing TS, when the end result is a Hurricane that plausibly would have RI’d with another 12 hours over water, is not nailing it. Nor is this the time for more model wars.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#570 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:54 am

After not being run for 6z, the Hwrf is running again at 12z. Here is what it has so far

Image


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#571 Postby Stormcenter » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:55 am

I guess I’ll chime in too, IMO you can try to sugar coat it
as much as you want but the models overall did
poor with Hanna a week or even 3 days out. None
of them showed a hurricane or even TS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#572 Postby mcheer23 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:56 am

St0rmTh0r wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:Real simple euro is Jordan and GFS is king games!!!! Jordan gets its done when it matters and lebron is up and down and doesn’t get it done when it matters very often

More like Kwame Brown and Eddie Curry lol just cant buy a bucket. They air balled hanna with 2 seconds to go


He lost all credibility when he said "LeBron James is up and down" :lol: :lol: :lol:
Last edited by mcheer23 on Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#573 Postby St0rmTh0r » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:57 am

Seriously anything less than 80% accuracy from a computer model is an EPIC fail
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#574 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:57 am

Trend by the GFS is weaker as 92L tracks towards the Lesser Antilles. The trend, is my friend.

Image
Last edited by NDG on Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#575 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 11:59 am

mcheer23 wrote:
St0rmTh0r wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:Real simple euro is Jordan and GFS is king games!!!! Jordan gets its done when it matters and lebron is up and down and doesn’t get it done when it matters very often

More like Kwame Brown and Eddie Curry lol just cant buy a bucket. They air balled hanna with 2 seconds to go



3-6 in finals isn’t good
He lost all credibility when he said "LeBron James is up and down" :lol: :lol: :lol:
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#576 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:10 pm

Also euro did well with gonzo!!!
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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#577 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:11 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Also euro did well with gonzo!!!

But it didn’t do well at all with Hanna.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#578 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:13 pm

Here is the HWRF at 62hrs

Image


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#579 Postby NDG » Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:14 pm

sma10 wrote:I know this happened a really long time ago so some people might've forgotten .. but the TX coast once got hit with a hurricane named Hanna that 48hrs prior to landfall both the GFS and Euro showed nada. Just a reminder that the models have struggled a bit


Yes, the models did a horrible job with Hanna, but we can't compare the current conditions over in the MDR to conditions over in the GOM.
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stormlover2013

Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#580 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:19 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:Also euro did well with gonzo!!!

But it didn’t do well at all with Hanna.



Yes it did go look at the previous runs, go loook at last week if u can’t see it didn’t do well then I don’t know what ur looking at.
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