ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[St0rmTh0r]

An awful lot of casual dismissing of an invest that has been declared 80/90 by the NHC for development. These are often slow processes. Don't forget, "next month" is only five days away.

The fact that this is even a invest is amazing itself given the date. If it's not a category 5 already people just dismiss it lol

[DestinHurricane]

I'm starting to get bearish on this one. It will get sheared to death once it's past the islands. This might be a short lived TS but nothing more.

[drezee]

That is a lot of energy. It will be gasoline waiting to ignote until it gets past Mexico. Think about what Hanna looked like 60 hours before landfall.

[St0rmTh0r]

That is a lot of energy. It will be gasoline waiting to ignote until it gets past Mexico. Think about what Hanna looked like 60 hours before landfall.

Amazing how fast these storms can organize

[ScottNAtlanta]

It's still too early to write this off...ask me again on Wednesday.

[Evenstar]

How to pronounce Isaias? I found this very useful.

https://twitter.com/IreneSans/status/1287271727517638656

With all due respect .... worst. name. ever.

I could not possibly agree more. I do not look forward to watching folks on tv and in person struggle with that unnecessarily cumbersome name. I was pronouncing it incorrectly myself till I watched the video above. Nevertheless, I've decided to call him Isa.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Just saw someone running a page on FB called 'Carolina Weather Authority' post an image of the NAVGEM model which shows a monster 957mb striking North Carolina spawned from this invest. Hype for clicks much? They said it is only one model and it is 7 days out but has been 'very consistent' in showing this. That model is very consistent garbage. That kind of irresponsibility irks me. Sure it might happen but not likely. It is being shared all over my FB feed.

[Nuno]

Convection starting to fire a bit northeast of the circulation. Perhaps beginning to fight off some of the SAL drying it out?

[wxman57]

An awful lot of casual dismissing of an invest that has been declared 80/90 by the NHC for development. These are often slow processes. Don't forget, "next month" is only five days away.

No one is dismissing it. It is definitely there, and there's a good chance it will become a depression or a weak tropical storm.

[Vdogg]

I must be looking at a different storm cause it sure looks like convection is firing closer and closer to the center and clouds are starting to fill in on visible. I really wouldn't write this one off yet. It might be a completely different looking storm by tomorrow morning.

[storm4u]

Starting to look a little better.. also models will struggle until it develops more and we have a actual center..

[Aric Dunn]

Convection starting to fire a bit northeast of the circulation. Perhaps beginning to fight off some of the SAL drying it out?

yeah, Convection gradually increasing all around the LLC.

overall circ is becoming more defined as well.

NHC will likely keep it at the current percentage given the trends.
and if the trend continues

then at 8pm they will likely

bump it up to 90/90

Looking a whole lot better

[toad strangler]

Convection starting to fire a bit northeast of the circulation. Perhaps beginning to fight off some of the SAL drying it out?

yeah, Convection gradually increasing all around the LLC.

overall circ is becoming more defined as well.

NHC will likely keep it at the current percentage given the trends.
and if the trend continues

then at 8pm they will likely

bump it up to 90/90

Looking a whole lot better

Looks like a huge Ferris Wheel

[DestinHurricane]

Convection starting to fire a bit northeast of the circulation. Perhaps beginning to fight off some of the SAL drying it out?

yeah, Convection gradually increasing all around the LLC.

overall circ is becoming more defined as well.

NHC will likely keep it at the current percentage given the trends.
and if the trend continues

then at 8pm they will likely

bump it up to 90/90

Looking a whole lot better

https://i.ibb.co/vPJDqyB/LABELS-19700101-000000-5.gif

Here we go again. 57 vs Aric.

[Nuno]

Convection starting to fire a bit northeast of the circulation. Perhaps beginning to fight off some of the SAL drying it out?

yeah, Convection gradually increasing all around the LLC.

overall circ is becoming more defined as well.

NHC will likely keep it at the current percentage given the trends.
and if the trend continues

then at 8pm they will likely

bump it up to 90/90

Looking a whole lot better

Looks like a huge Ferris Wheel

I really don't remember a wave this massive prior to organizing in the central Atlantic. No matter what happens, there's gonna be a lot of rain heading somewhere in this basin lol

[SouthDadeFish]

It does look better than it did in the early morning hours, BUT, idk if that is saying much

The 12Z HWRF solution seems much more realistic than earlier runs. A sheared TS on approach to the islands.

[FireRat]

S2K on a Monday in Late July...

[Aric Dunn]

It is funny how went from one of the smallest MDR cyclones to probably one of the largest ...

[wxman57]

I think it's clear that there is a broad circulation. All it lacks to be upgraded to a TD is some organized convection around the center. That may come tomorrow. Models suggest a difficult road ahead. West to a death in the eastern Caribbean, says the Euro. Near the NE Caribbean and toward a death near the Bahamas according to the GFS. Fine with me, we need a couple quite weeks.

[SFLcane]