ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

It is like winding up a loosely spiraled rope from the inside...

the inside get nice and tight ( what we have now with the vort max) and the more you twist, the spiraled out outer rope gets pulled in until you have tight wound rope.

[Vdogg]

It's as if someone drew the classic outline of a major hurricane in pencil and now nature is coloring it in. Most structured swirl I've ever seen.

[jlauderdal]

Convection starting to fire a bit northeast of the circulation. Perhaps beginning to fight off some of the SAL drying it out?

yeah, Convection gradually increasing all around the LLC.

overall circ is becoming more defined as well.

NHC will likely keep it at the current percentage given the trends.
and if the trend continues

then at 8pm they will likely

bump it up to 90/90

Looking a whole lot better

https://i.ibb.co/vPJDqyB/LABELS-19700101-000000-5.gif

Here we go again. 57 vs Aric.

57 is a wish caster, he wants his earned vacation time off

[emeraldislenc]

It is at 80 percent now

[Aric Dunn]

So they go down to 70/80 lol

that wont last long if the trend continues..

[drezee]

The influence is so large. Look at buoy 42040. Pressure is 1011mb with a NE wind. If it bundles...oh boy. It may not...

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41040

[emeraldislenc]

I agree! Probably go back up to 90 at 8.

[cycloneye]

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands has changed little in
organization since this morning. Environmental conditions are
expected to become somewhat more favorable for development during
the next few days and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form during that time frame. The system is forecast to
move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and it could
bring heavy rain to portions of the Leeward Islands by late
Wednesday, regardless of development. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

Well looky what we got poking out briefly.. This is how they always start.. a vort max that grows..

[wxman57]

So they go down to 70/80 lol

that wont last long if the trend continues..

I agree. If it looks like it has developed, the percentages will go up. If it looks like it won't develop, percentages will go down. That's how it works. In reality, development chances are either 100% or 0%. Either it will or it won't "develop", with "develop" meaning the NHC classifies it as a TD or TS. If I had to make that bet, I'd say 100%, but it may not last long or be very strong.

[stormlover2013]

The euro had Hanna around corpus and the gfs didn’t even have a dang storm.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Seems it is dealing with some shear in the upper levels? Convection trying to form in the center being blown off to the south. Or maybe a result of its brisk pace?

[abajan]

So they go down to 70/80 lol

that wont last long if the trend continues..

I think 70/80 are the numbers Wxman57 predicted they would go with. He nailed it!

[Aric Dunn]

So they go down to 70/80 lol

that wont last long if the trend continues..

I think 70/80 are the numbers Wxman57 predicted they would go with. He nailed it!

Yeppers..

I am just waiting for everyone to start posting tweets from everyone pointing out the increased organization today and chances for development have gone up ( not the nhc chances).

[msbee]

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands has changed little in
organization since this morning. Environmental conditions are
expected to become somewhat more favorable for development during
the next few days and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form during that time frame. The system is forecast to
move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and it could
bring heavy rain to portions of the Leeward Islands by late
Wednesday, regardless of development. Interests in the Lesser
Antilles should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

https://i.imgur.com/97WAr1I.png

we are monitoring this closely here in St Maarten. Even a weak tropical depression could bring a lot of rain to us. Too much rain in too short a time is a worry for the island since we would have a lot of flooding. and to top that off, there are still a lot of people living under tarp or who have leaky roofs like me. I am getting out the towels now.

[MississippiWx]

What a beast of a wave. This is something straight out of the Western Pacific where it has days and days to consolidate. In the Atlantic, there are often too many obstacles to navigate for systems this large. One is land interaction with the big islands. Another one is SAL which is obviously still a minor issue. Lastly, the TUTT in the SW Atlantic is there once the wave finally consolidates enough to become a TC. This wave is having to navigate all three.

It looks better this afternoon and will still likely become a tropical cyclone. After that, it’s anyone’s guess.

[psyclone]

80% still represent a 4 out of 5 shot of development. That's still pretty bullish. Trends and the actual number give a complete picture. You need both. The odds came down but they did so from a high baseline. development odds remain robust...as does the rotation.

[HurricaneEnzo]

They aren't gonna drop it from 90% to 10% in one outlook. They will play it safe and gradually drop it if it continues to show little in the way of development.

[Weatherboy1]

Personally I see a system that is A) Enormous in terms of size/circulation envelope and B) Slowly but surely firing off more convection nearer to the circulation center. No telling when we’ll have a true CDO flare up ... or if it does develop, whether it will maintain its size. But does seem to have the potential to be an impressive system. And unlike tiny Gonzalo, this one is going to likely be harder to disrupt. I like it’s chances to be designated by tomorrow morning

[jlauderdal]

80% still represent a 4 out of 5 shot of development. That's still pretty bullish. Trends and the actual number give a complete picture. You need both. The odds came down but they did so from a high baseline. development odds remain robust...as does the rotation.

When stewart returns to duty, you can expect an increase in development chances.