ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

80% still represent a 4 out of 5 shot of development. That's still pretty bullish. Trends and the actual number give a complete picture. You need both. The odds came down but they did so from a high baseline. development odds remain robust...as does the rotation.

Yes it’ll likely develop into something, but odds of a significant hurricane, let alone a hurricane have greatly decreased in my opinion.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track:

92L INVEST 200727 1800 12.4N 46.3W ATL 25 1008

[Steve H.]

It does appear that there is a good amount of shear to the west of this feature and development could be hindered. Will it relax as we turn the corner into August?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[cycloneye]

Wow. very large.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1287825982586523651

[HurricaneEnzo]

It's massive size is no doubt impressive. Something this size usually has non-tropical origins, at least in the Atlantic basin. It could be the undoing of this invest however. While admittedly I would like to see something become of this just to see what happens for the sake of curiosity I wouldn't wish that kind of monster system on anyone.

[Hammy]

Every season it seems we have at least one almost-there wave that seems almost 100% sure to develop, model support etc only to not quite get there, based on the trends this might be this season's. SAL still seems too strong which I'd suspected (you can clearly see the dust circling around it to the north), but other than that this looks really out of place in the MDR and more like an EPAC gyre.

[CaribJam]

My concern is that the longer the system takes to consolidate, the closer it goes to 60 degrees west, without making any significant northern turn. A system of this massive size and potential belongs in open waters, NOT affecting land and people.

Everyone in the Caribbean, as well as in the Gulf and eastern US should keep a close eye on this one, as there are too many uncertainties at this time!

[Fego]

Convection starting to fire a bit northeast of the circulation. Perhaps beginning to fight off some of the SAL drying it out?

yeah, Convection gradually increasing all around the LLC.

overall circ is becoming more defined as well.

NHC will likely keep it at the current percentage given the trends.
and if the trend continues

then at 8pm they will likely

bump it up to 90/90

Looking a whole lot better

https://i.ibb.co/vPJDqyB/LABELS-19700101-000000-5.gif

Here we go again. 57 vs Aric.

Is there a tale of the tape?

[gfsperpendicular]

In absolute awe at the size of this thing, at this rate it is gonna be 50/50 whether 92L takes gulps of SAL or SAL takes gulps of 92L

[curtadams]

Well looky what we got poking out briefly.. This is how they always start.. a vort max that grows..
https://i.ibb.co/sKBRqHb/LABELS-19700101-000000-6.gif

IMO they usually start with a big convective outburst which produces a vort max, but one we generally have to use ASCAT or the right RGB to spot under the convection. Lower cloud swirls with weak convection is a bearish signal often from weakening or decapitated systems. This is strengthening but I don't think it's close.

[Vdogg]

The leading edge of the storm has filled in substantially with convection. Looks like it's about to take off.

[AxaltaRacing24]

It does appear that there is a good amount of shear to the west of this feature and development could be hindered. Will it relax as we turn the corner into August?

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

yes. despite people cancelling the season or doubting the future, things will become more favorable in the part of the basin in 3 weeks.

[jlauderdal]

In absolute awe at the size of this thing, at this rate it is gonna be 50/50 whether 92L takes gulps of SAL or SAL takes gulps of 92L

There is only one storm to be in awe of in terms of size, its Tip

Typhoon Tip was the largest tropical cyclone on record, with a diameter of 1,380 mi (2,220 km)—almost double the previous record of 700 mi (1,130 km) set by Typhoon Marge in August 1951. At its largest, Tip was nearly half the size of the contiguous United States.

[bob rulz]

I don't know how anybody could dismiss this. The global models have also been very bad so far this season (very likely due to decreased data from airline flights, as others have said), so I'm not sure how much I would trust the models until we actually have a real classifiable system to track.

[Aric Dunn]

Consolidating nicely throughout the day. Convection gradually building around the center. looks to be setting up a good convective burst overnight. https://re.ssec.wisc.edu/s/P1uEpG

[AnnularCane]

I'm starting to think this should have been 99L instead of 92L.

[toad strangler]

In absolute awe at the size of this thing, at this rate it is gonna be 50/50 whether 92L takes gulps of SAL or SAL takes gulps of 92L

No way something that size develops in this situation. It needs to consolidate for starters.

[GCANE]

LL Swirl looks to be swirling faster and tighter.
12.5N 46.5W

[Aric Dunn]

There is such a huge plume of Moisture wrapping around to the east and North side of this throughout the day. SAL does not stand a chance.

[GCANE]

Normally when waves hit about 50W, they come to the tail end of the Africa Easterly Jet and start to get under the influence of UL Divergence.
However, with the AEJ much farther south than normal, UL Divergence is much more pronounced than normal.
Also, check the N GOM.