ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

The most beautifully-disorganized-organized wave I’ve ever seen in my 20 years living on earth.

[Evan_Wilson]

If 92L does in fact consolidate into an eventual Hurricane and stays off the East Coast, impacts could be felt for miles inland due to its absolutely humongous size.

[Do_For_Love]

The size of this makes it pretty compelling to just see if it can fill in and develop. Seems like odds are against it getting too strong, but that's been said before lol. I hope it doesn't unless it's a fish because it could do some serious damage if it did, imagine the flooding risk.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

What do you think they will go with next outlook yall.

[CM2]

The storm has rough conditions for formation untill it reached the little area marked in green. Otherwise it has stuff from moderate shear to dry air to worry about which will impead it's formation, once in that little green area though, everything matched it and the storm will then be allowed to intensify (and rapidly) The problem is if the storm reaches there in the first place as a somewhat orginized tropical system. That is what I have doubts about.

[sma10]

Here's a ridiculous question. Due to its current forward motion, humongous size and organization trend .... wouldn't watches need to be put out for some of the easternmost islands .... soon?

[PTrackerLA]

This is the type of system that will change the flow in the carrib.. so no need to worry about the graveyard... this is the type of system that would barrel over Hispaniola and say "that tickled" ( i.e Hurricane Georges).

The type of system the would dominate and do some serious ridge pumping.... would take a large scale synoptic system to really move it.

If it becomes a Hurricane we are talking possible Typhoon Tip size..

Precisely the reason I would like to see it safely develop into a hurricane, just to gawk at it

[CM2]

Here's a ridiculous question. Due to its current forward motion, humongous size and organization trend .... wouldn't watches need to be put out for some of the easternmost islands .... soon?

Not till there is an actual risk posed, at the moment, it seems the storm is not quite close to development yet and is still a few days out from reaching the islands. Needs to be, at the farthest, 48 hours from impact to see watches and warnings.

[TheProfessor]

An interesting question about diurnal maximum and minimum: I've read that diurnal minimum over the ocean is during the hours of peak insolation when the temperature difference between the sea and the atmosphere is the least, and diurnal maximum is during the dark hours when the temperature difference between the sea and the atmosphere is the highest (due to the sea remaining warm at night because of how slowly water cools). But I've also seen that diurnal minimum is around sunset and diurnal maximum is around sunrise.

I noticed the former with Gonzalo specifically, during the morning hours, its convection began to decrease somewhat whereas during the evening hours after dark, it would flare up again till sunrise.

Which one is true? It's possible I may have confused the two a bit so apologies if they're way off.

Diurnal minimum is probably a bit before sunset, that's when the water has warmed for it's longest period while the atmosphere is still receiving shortwave radiation. Meanwhile just before sunrise is when the radiation budget reaches a minimum as the Earth gives off longwave radiation and sends it back to space. However, since water has such a high specific heat it cools much slower than the atmosphere and it creates the high temperature difference known as diurnal Maximum. On land it's the opposite due to the surface cooling at a much faster pace. It's also why the lowest temperatures in the winter time often happen a little before sunrise instead of 2 or 3 AM outside the influence of a weather system.

[SoupBone]

This is the type of system that will change the flow in the carrib.. so no need to worry about the graveyard... this is the type of system that would barrel over Hispaniola and say "that tickled" ( i.e Hurricane Georges).

The type of system the would dominate and do some serious ridge pumping.... would take a large scale synoptic system to really move it.

If it becomes a Hurricane we are talking possible Typhoon Tip size..

I think you need a nap, my friend.

[Evan_Wilson]

As previous posters have alluded to, this storm is HUGE! This isn’t the type of storm that’s going to be able to recurve 30 miles away from the coastline..

[St0rmTh0r]

This is the type of system that will change the flow in the carrib.. so no need to worry about the graveyard... this is the type of system that would barrel over Hispaniola and say "that tickled" ( i.e Hurricane Georges).

The type of system the would dominate and do some serious ridge pumping.... would take a large scale synoptic system to really move it.

If it becomes a Hurricane we are talking possible Typhoon Tip size..

Thanks dont know if you were responding to my question but you answered it. How big was Tip at this stage?

[Aric Dunn]

This is the type of system that will change the flow in the carrib.. so no need to worry about the graveyard... this is the type of system that would barrel over Hispaniola and say "that tickled" ( i.e Hurricane Georges).

The type of system the would dominate and do some serious ridge pumping.... would take a large scale synoptic system to really move it.

If it becomes a Hurricane we are talking possible Typhoon Tip size..

Precisely the reason I would like to see it safely develop into a hurricane, just to gawk at it

https://i.imgur.com/33FVNmK.png

This is a good image.. if you remember the SAL that was everywhere this morning around it..

it has nearly eaten all of it. almost just cut the plume in half from the source. There is just soo much moisture flux into this.

[CM2]

As previous posters have alluded to, this storm is HUGE! This isn’t the type of storm that’s going to be able to recurve 30 miles away from the coastline..

Unless it's pulling a Michael or Dorain and it's riding along the coast line with little steering winds. Still though you got a upper level high which is pushing this puppy along pretty handedly and will dictate if it hits the US or not.

Please understand this is an older model run but is still presents the upper level high which is playing a big part in the steering forces of the storm.

[CM2]

This is the type of system that will change the flow in the carrib.. so no need to worry about the graveyard... this is the type of system that would barrel over Hispaniola and say "that tickled" ( i.e Hurricane Georges).

The type of system the would dominate and do some serious ridge pumping.... would take a large scale synoptic system to really move it.

If it becomes a Hurricane we are talking possible Typhoon Tip size..

Thanks dont know if you were responding to my question but you answered it. How big was Tip at this stage?

I got a video for you which shows it from tropical wave to end
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pE-vHjngjQ0

[St0rmTh0r]

As previous posters have alluded to, this storm is HUGE! This isn’t the type of storm that’s going to be able to recurve 30 miles away from the coastline..

Unless it's pulling a Michael or Dorain and it's riding along the coast line with little steering winds. Still though you got a upper level high which is pushing this puppy along pretty handedly and will dictate if it hits the US or not.
https://imgur.com/l06llis
Please understand this is an older model run but is still presents the upper level high which is playing a big part in the steering forces of the storm.

Wouldn't that upper level high create a favorable environment? As big as this it would help expand it more no?

[jaxfladude]

Why am I "scared" already and it's not even mid August yet?
And I'm am in NE Fla.....2020 scares me with hurricane season as it is already done and all the other things that 2020 has wrought upon....

[St0rmTh0r]

This is the type of system that will change the flow in the carrib.. so no need to worry about the graveyard... this is the type of system that would barrel over Hispaniola and say "that tickled" ( i.e Hurricane Georges).

The type of system the would dominate and do some serious ridge pumping.... would take a large scale synoptic system to really move it.

If it becomes a Hurricane we are talking possible Typhoon Tip size..

Thanks dont know if you were responding to my question but you answered it. How big was Tip at this stage?

I got a video for you which shows it from tropical wave to end
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pE-vHjngjQ0

They actually look the same size in fact this current wave may be bigger!

[HurricaneAndre2008]

[CM2]

As previous posters have alluded to, this storm is HUGE! This isn’t the type of storm that’s going to be able to recurve 30 miles away from the coastline..

Unless it's pulling a Michael or Dorain and it's riding along the coast line with little steering winds. Still though you got a upper level high which is pushing this puppy along pretty handedly and will dictate if it hits the US or not.
https://imgur.com/l06llis
Please understand this is an older model run but is still presents the upper level high which is playing a big part in the steering forces of the storm.

Wouldn't that upper level high create a favorable environment? As big as this it would help expand it more no?

The upper level high generally acts as a steering force rather than impacting the storms strength. If a storm is going agianst the winds of the high then it can create mild shear but generally they can push the storm into favorable enviroments. As you can see in this photo, the area it's being pushed into is very dry. That is why most models have a hard time really forming this storm as time goes on.