ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#621 Postby CM2 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:14 pm

St0rmTh0r wrote:
CM2 wrote:Though the GFS has been trash, what is interesting note is that for the first time in 10 runs, the trend is now back to a stronger storm than the previous run which hasn't happen in 10 runs. One thing to appreciate from models, even as trash as the GFS, is the trend they put together. Individual model runs are always garbage but the trend is always very telling.
https://imgur.com/PLPUOQu
The GFS 18z is still running so this is just the first thing I noticed in its early stages,

Was it the GFS that showed this storm weeks ago? I remember some model run showing a massive wave like this.

Both the Euro and the GEM both showed this wave forming into something, but nothing impressive. Nothing was shown last monday but they first started spotting 92L tuesday around 12z.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#622 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:16 pm

HUGE shift west by the 18Z GFS. It actually shows a favorable upper-level wind pattern with the low-level vorticity crawling WNW to NW over the Bahamas yet no development. When I say crawling I mean really slow. Not really something I want to see to start August:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#623 Postby toad strangler » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:18 pm

gatorcane wrote:HUGE shift west by the 18Z GFS. It actually shows a favorable upper-level wind pattern with the low-level vorticity crawling WNW to NW over the Bahamas yet no development. Not really something I want to see to start August:

https://i.postimg.cc/N0mSJrNb/gfs-shear-watl-24.png


Stole my thunder. Huge GFS shift. Or shall I say cave.
Last edited by toad strangler on Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#624 Postby gatorcane » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:21 pm

Looks like the GFS has more ridging as well which drives it into Florida but with little development despite a very favorable upper-level pattern over some of the hottest SSTs in the basin:

Image
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#625 Postby SconnieCane » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looks like the GFS has more ridging as well which drives it into Florida but with little development despite a very favorable upper-level pattern over some of the hottest SSTs in the basin:

https://i.postimg.cc/L5wVFx5P/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-29.png


Well THAT makes sense...

Thanks, GFS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#626 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:HUGE shift west by the 18Z GFS. It actually shows a favorable upper-level wind pattern with the low-level vorticity crawling WNW to NW over the Bahamas yet no development. When I say crawling I mean really slow. Not really something I want to see to start August:

Image

Ugh...crawling. Dorian II THE SEQUAL. Let’s hope it stays this small blip on the radar. Although I have NO CONFIDENCE whatsoever in the models ability to forecast strength. Especially after that Hanna nonsense a few days ago.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#627 Postby DestinHurricane » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:23 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looks like the GFS has more ridging as well which drives it into Florida but with little development despite a very favorable upper-level pattern over some of the hottest SSTs in the basin:

https://i.postimg.cc/L5wVFx5P/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-29.png


What is inhibiting development on this GFS?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#628 Postby Ubuntwo » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:24 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Looks like the GFS has more ridging as well which drives it into Florida but with little development despite a very favorable upper-level pattern over some of the hottest SSTs in the basin:

https://i.postimg.cc/L5wVFx5P/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-29.png


What is inhibiting development on this GFS?

In this run, just dry air. It's got a persistent anticyclone so shear is no problem.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#629 Postby CM2 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:24 pm

gatorcane wrote:HUGE shift west by the 18Z GFS. It actually shows a favorable upper-level wind pattern with the low-level vorticity crawling WNW to NW over the Bahamas yet no development. When I say crawling I mean really slow. Not really something I want to see to start August:

https://i.postimg.cc/N0mSJrNb/gfs-shear-watl-24.png

I saw the GFS, it's still a Yikes after 120 hours. There's just no consistency with the GFS in terms of structures and it just seems to change quite radically after each run. If I could, I would make it illegal to post GFS (Para would be acceptable) after 120 hours. It's just been that bad this season with long term forecasting.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#630 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:25 pm

Leave it to the 18z “happy hour” version of the GFS to shake things up a bit.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#631 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:27 pm

GFS takes a barely closed low into WPB. Big shift from last day of GFS runs, but let's see if it bounces back East on the 00z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#632 Postby toad strangler » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:28 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Leave it to the 18z “happy hour” version of the GFS to shake things up a bit.


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To me, Euro has had the most plausible scenarios for awhile now, even with the N shift at 12z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#633 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:29 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:GFS takes a barely closed low into WPB. Big shift from last day of GFS runs, but let's see if it bounces back East on the 00z.

I’ve seen this movie before. It didn’t end well for the Northern Bahamas.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#634 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:30 pm

Hey how are those trends going for everyone ?? :D
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#635 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:31 pm

Happy hour GFS is not so happy about forming 92L
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#636 Postby AdamFirst » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:31 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Hey how are those trends going for everyone ?? :D


I'm ready for naked swirl Isaias to move my lawn chairs a few centimeters
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#637 Postby St0rmTh0r » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:32 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looks like the GFS has more ridging as well which drives it into Florida but with little development despite a very favorable upper-level pattern over some of the hottest SSTs in the basin:

https://i.postimg.cc/L5wVFx5P/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-29.png
https://i.postimg.cc/W1PMmFks/gfs-z850-vort-watl-29.png

Yet another example of why you cant trust a model this far away especially the GFS as of late. This is why I asked about the upper level high because that could put this in a favorable environment
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#638 Postby aspen » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:32 pm

gatorcane wrote:Looks like the GFS has more ridging as well which drives it into Florida but with little development despite a very favorable upper-level pattern over some of the hottest SSTs in the basin:

https://i.postimg.cc/L5wVFx5P/gfs-z500a-Norm-watl-29.png
https://i.postimg.cc/W1PMmFks/gfs-z850-vort-watl-29.png

You know the GFS has lost its mind when it’s not going happy hour despite a very favorable environment.

If that upper level pattern remains by the time 92L is north of the Greater Antilles, we could very well see a Hanna repeat, where a hurricane forms despite the GFS showing nothing from that disturbance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#639 Postby CM2 » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:33 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Happy hour GFS is not so happy about forming 92L

Happy hour GFS this year has dank a bit too much and has blacked out on the couch. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#640 Postby St0rmTh0r » Mon Jul 27, 2020 5:34 pm

Hammy wrote:
St0rmTh0r wrote:
CM2 wrote:Though the GFS has been trash, what is interesting note is that for the first time in 10 runs, the trend is now back to a stronger storm than the previous run which hasn't happen in 10 runs. One thing to appreciate from models, even as trash as the GFS, is the trend they put together. Individual model runs are always garbage but the trend is always very telling.
https://imgur.com/PLPUOQu
The GFS 18z is still running so this is just the first thing I noticed in its early stages,

Was it the GFS that showed this storm weeks ago? I remember some model run showing a massive wave like this.


GEM (CMC) followed by the Euro--the GFS was being laughed at for not showing anything, not even the massive tropical low that's presently there.

And now GFS showing favorable upper level environment in Bahamas after showing a TUTT in several runs. More laughter to come.
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