ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

This is the type of system that will change the flow in the carrib.. so no need to worry about the graveyard... this is the type of system that would barrel over Hispaniola and say "that tickled" ( i.e Hurricane Georges).

The type of system the would dominate and do some serious ridge pumping.... would take a large scale synoptic system to really move it.

If it becomes a Hurricane we are talking possible Typhoon Tip size..

Are you weenieing out on us Aric

[jlauderdal]

Why am I "scared" already and it's not even mid August yet?
And I'm am in NE Fla.....2020 scares me with hurricane season as it is already done and all the other things that 2020 has wrought upon....

When northjaxpro gets concerned then you need to be...otherwise, have your plan ready and relax

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

[Aric Dunn]

This is the type of system that will change the flow in the carrib.. so no need to worry about the graveyard... this is the type of system that would barrel over Hispaniola and say "that tickled" ( i.e Hurricane Georges).

The type of system the would dominate and do some serious ridge pumping.... would take a large scale synoptic system to really move it.

If it becomes a Hurricane we are talking possible Typhoon Tip size..

Are you weenieing out on us Aric

Just giving some perspective.. and being cheesy at the same time

[St0rmTh0r]

Unless it's pulling a Michael or Dorain and it's riding along the coast line with little steering winds. Still though you got a upper level high which is pushing this puppy along pretty handedly and will dictate if it hits the US or not.
https://imgur.com/l06llis
Please understand this is an older model run but is still presents the upper level high which is playing a big part in the steering forces of the storm.

Wouldn't that upper level high create a favorable environment? As big as this it would help expand it more no?

The upper level high generally acts as a steering force rather than impacting the storms strength. If a storm is going agianst the winds of the high then it can create mild shear but generally they can push the storm into favorable enviroments. As you can see in this photo, the area it's being pushed into is very dry. That is why most models have a hard time really forming this storm as time goes on.
https://imgur.com/m4Y9gPN

One thing the models aren't accounting for is the size of this and how it's got it's own moisture field. It's literally eating up the SAL right now very interesting.

[Kazmit]

I want this to develop into a massive cat 4 fish just for the waves.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Does 92L already have a closed circulation?

[St0rmTh0r]

Does 92L already have a closed circulation?

No way to tell for sure without scans. Last visible shows it wrapping up more and actually looks like the circulation got a little bigger.

[GCANE]

Some major intensification possible once it starts moving into the Bahamas.

[CM2]

Does 92L already have a closed circulation?

I think it's starting to close in, though it's a smaller part of the wave it's closing in and not the entire wave.

The final frame

[Kingarabian]

Idk about the Tip comparisons. Tip had more water to traverse and the WPAC OHC cannot be beat.

[Aric Dunn]

Does 92L already have a closed circulation?

No way to tell for sure without scans. Last visible shows it wrapping up more and actually looks like the circulation got a little bigger.

well I mean the winfield is closed and the morning ASCAT showed an elongated but defiend circ. Then Visible as you mentioned.

So overall yes it has a closed circ. but convection needs to organize more.

[Hammy]

I'd say upgrade by this time tomorrow if the trend continues, it looks like the convection is finally starting to consolidate from all directions over the last several hours.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

I'd say upgrade by this time tomorrow if the trend continues, it looks like the convection is finally starting to consolidate from all directions over the last several hours.

Recon will be out there tomorrow to investigate it.

[Nuno]

Idk about the Tip comparisons. Tip had more water to traverse and the WPAC OHC cannot be beat.

Yeah, this won't get Tip-sized. It's fun to talk about though

[sunnyday]

Will someone please explain to me why the odds of formation have dropped from 90/80 to 80/70? Thank you.

[CyclonicFury]

Will someone please explain to me why the odds of formation have dropped from 90/80 to 80/70? Thank you.

Model support has significantly dropped, and it appears the environment may be fairly hostile over the western Atlantic. Also, large circulations like 92L take a long time to consolidate.

[Evil Jeremy]

Will someone please explain to me why the odds of formation have dropped from 90/80 to 80/70? Thank you.

92L didn't sleep well last night, woke up kind of hungover, stumbled around this morning, and finally got nice cup of coffee in the mid-afternoon. My guess is that the odds will be back up at 8pm, based on what we've seen since 2pm.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

I'd say upgrade by this time tomorrow if the trend continues, it looks like the convection is finally starting to consolidate from all directions over the last several hours.

Also it starting to have that shrimp look...

[cycloneye]

I'd say upgrade by this time tomorrow if the trend continues, it looks like the convection is finally starting to consolidate from all directions over the last several hours.

After recon that will go on Tuesday afternoon depending on what they find.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_h ... ROD=1km_bw