ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[AxaltaRacing24]

With all due respect to the models, this is by far the worst i’ve seen them perform since i’ve joined here in 2016.

[BobHarlem]

With all due respect to the models, this is by far the worst i’ve seen them perform since i’ve joined here in 2016.

Is it the vastly reduced amount of general airplane data?

[SouthFLTropics]

With all due respect to the models, this is by far the worst i’ve seen them perform since i’ve joined here in 2016.

Well, it is 2020 and everything is backwards this year. So with that line of thinking I believe I’m going to go with the NAVGEM as the model of choice. It’s got as good a shot as any of them. LOL


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[toad strangler]

Hey how are those trends going for everyone ??

LOL some never, just never learn

[jlauderdal]

With all due respect to the models, this is by far the worst i’ve seen them perform since i’ve joined here in 2016.

You should have been around in 2000, those were the days of the navy nogaps being taken seriously

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[aspen]

12 GFS-Para is acting like you would expect the normal GFS to do, bombing out 92L to a 960s major hurricane around the Bahamas/SEUS. However, it’s not an unreasonable solution, because it still shows a broad circulation for over two days and doesn’t tighten it up until it passes near/through the NE Caribbean on Thursday. It doesn’t start to really get its act together until later Thursday after passing Puerto Rico.

[Evil Jeremy]

With all due respect to the models, this is by far the worst i’ve seen them perform since i’ve joined here in 2016.

You should have been here for Debby 2012. Now that was a funbag of model headaches.

Sidenote, as I’ve been meaning to ask you for a while, was it Gordon or Elliot that led you to that username?

[AxaltaRacing24]

With all due respect to the models, this is by far the worst i’ve seen them perform since i’ve joined here in 2016.

You should have been here for Debby 2012. Now that was a funbag of model headaches.

Sidenote, as I’ve been meaning to ask you for a while, was it Gordon or Elliot that led you to that username?

gordon, but i cheer for elliott now

[sma10]

With all due respect to the models, this is by far the worst i’ve seen them perform since i’ve joined here in 2016.

You should have been around in 2000, those were the days of the navy nogaps being taken seriously

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How about pre-2000, when modeling was little more than black magic, leading to the oft uttered phrase: "you know thos Hurricanes literally have a mind of their own!"

[SFLcane]

Interesting... The 18z gfs now keeps 92L alive longer.

[Cpv17]

With all due respect to the models, this is by far the worst i’ve seen them perform since i’ve joined here in 2016.

You should have been here for Debby 2012. Now that was a funbag of model headaches.

Sidenote, as I’ve been meaning to ask you for a while, was it Gordon or Elliot that led you to that username?

The NHC followed the Euro with Debby sending it to Texas. Remember that one well.

[SconnieCane]

With all due respect to the models, this is by far the worst i’ve seen them perform since i’ve joined here in 2016.

You should have been around in 2000, those were the days of the navy nogaps being taken seriously

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How about pre-2000, when modeling was little more than black magic, leading to the oft uttered phrase: "you know thos Hurricanes literally have a mind of their own!"

When they didn't bother with a 5-day cone because they had enough accuracy problems with the 3-day.

[SFLcane]

GFS ensembles should be interesting.

[AutoPenalti]

Interestingly enough, Levi uploaded a TWO using the 12z and pretty much emphasizing how unfavorable it was but did leave a tidbit about how both global models have been rather wonky as each run progressed.

[HurricaneFrances04]

GFS becoming more in line with the Euro

[NDG]

All I know is that the EPS shows a strong narrow ridge to the north of 92L as it tracks through the Antilles to later grow stronger over Bermuda as the trough lifts to the north. Unfortunately this means a threat to the US of whatever becomes of 92L.

https://i.imgur.com/81txuCY.gif

+ NAO

Correct. Look how the NAO shoots up into positive territory the first few daya of August

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200727/8a2d045937c0515ff326864d3f28e576.gif


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BTW, despite the -NAO during the past month or so, there was not a troughiness pattern across the Atlantic over all, in fact easterly winds at h70 were fairly anomalous north of the MDR the reason the TW that formed into Hanna traveled straight west towards the GOM.

[NDG]

Hard to believe when the 18z GFS shows 92L avoiding Hispaniola and when it gets to the Bahamas it will not further develop with fairly good UL winds. If it is a dry air that it shows it would be also hard to believe when it gets to that area, at this point.

[HurricaneFrances04]

GFS track verification. If I have one critique of the AOML website it is that the past model tracks should use the same color line with a darker line for more recent runs and a lighter line for older runs.

[sma10]

Hard to believe when the 18z GFS shows 92L avoiding Hispaniola and when it gets to the Bahamas it will not further develop with fairly good UL winds. If it is a dry air that it shows it would be also hard to believe, at this point.

True, but a sizable percentage of the 20 ensembles strengthen into TS/Hurricanes

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS has light wind shear in the Bahamas, it seems to be pulling a Dorian when the Models period busted badly on intensity and track, this is going to end up being a nowcast type system where the system will most likely be stronger than modeled and the models have potential to bust and possibly quite badly again.

When I look at the models I look at forecast conditions like wind shear and moisture and a severely weakening system in a low shear environment is extremely suspect to me