ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is a VERY large and oblong envelope. Because of the shape you could get development on either end of the circulation. I think the models have been trying to develop the NE side of the loop when its the SW portion that's going to develop and cut off. Expect the models to eventually catch on to this...but it looks like the south end is winning.

[floridasun78]

tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area on Tuesday

[floridasun78]

What I’m thinking track wise is between the 18zGFS and 12zeuro with an intensity similar to the GFS Para which we may be getting slight hints that the gfs may be trending towards the GFS Para

As for a forecast right now here goes nothing

24hrs. TD 35mph
48hrs. TS. 50mph
72hrs. TS. 70mph
96hrs. C1. 85mph
120hrs. C3. 115mph

this not going cat 3 if was late aug maybe

[Hurricaneman]

What I’m thinking track wise is between the 18zGFS and 12zeuro with an intensity similar to the GFS Para which we may be getting slight hints that the gfs may be trending towards the GFS Para

As for a forecast right now here goes nothing

24hrs. TD 35mph
48hrs. TS. 50mph
72hrs. TS. 70mph
96hrs. C1. 85mph
120hrs. C3. 115mph

this not going cat 3 if was late aug maybe

I’m not going to go above that, that would be overkill but it’s quite possible if the wind shear is low on US approach. If this doesn’t consolidate as fast I will lower these numbers

[aspen]

I’m being far more generous to 92L than a lot of other people on here because I was pretty harsh on 91L a week ago today and highly skeptical it would develop into anything significant, or even develop at all. It ended up as an 80 kt hurricane at landfall. If one part of 92L can take over and become a dominant, well-defined, small circulation, then I would not be surprised at all if it finds the right area in 5-8 days to become a hurricane. Development will be slow, and this isn’t a peak season environment it’ll be going through, but something will likely come out of this.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Can we expect any impacts here in Barbados

[floridasun78]

Can we expect any impacts here in Barbados

look islands to your nw will get watch or warring but look wont far as your area you likely get some storm and some wind but main part of 92l likely stay to your north keep update your weather office and nhc

[Aric Dunn]

Can we expect any impacts here in Barbados

Squalls will start coming in tomorrow. Breezy and some heavy rain.

[hurricanes1234]

I imagine it'll be the same for us here in T&T and probably most of the Eastern Caribbean because that moisture envelope is just wow.

[CM2]

Meanwhile it seems the south western lob is really getting it's stuff together. Storm might be much smaller than everyone is giving hype for.

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Meanwhile it seems the south western lob is really getting it's stuff together. Storm might be much smaller than everyone is giving hype for.
https://imgur.com/X1DEWMI

So no impacts on Barbados then?

[jlauderdal]

Meanwhile it seems the south western lob is really getting it's stuff together. Storm might be much smaller than everyone is giving hype for.
https://imgur.com/X1DEWMI

So no impacts on Barbados then?

Lets try it again for barbados effects...
Squalls will start coming in tomorrow. Breezy and some heavy rain.


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[curtadams]

I think it looks considerably worse than it did a few hours ago, and I said its pretty looks were deceptive even then. For a tropical cyclone to go, as we all know, it has to have an MLC and LLC stacked. The overall LLC has lost not only deep convection but even most clouds. We know it's still there by continuity, but it looks very unlikely to generate an MLC. There's an MLC candidate out in front, but it's not all that impressive, and it would have to vent a lot of air (meaning a lot of convection it doesn't have) to pull the LLC over *because* the system is so big. (IMO, that's a lot of the reason it's hard for these big systems to form up - an offcenter MLC has a lot more work to do.) Worse, the overall LLC is pushing SAL into its intake. The back part of the system looks like a huge wave but with so-so convection. Basically I don't think any part is likely to develop before it hits the E Caribbean graveyard - just not enough time.

If it does form, it will probably be that forward MLC that does it, and the resulting system will not be all that large. Large invests often produce small systems - many is the time I've looked at some tiny new cyclone that formed out of a massive invest, and wondered "where did it all go?"

[GCANE]

Solid Anticyclone

[CM2]

Meanwhile it seems the south western lob is really getting it's stuff together. Storm might be much smaller than everyone is giving hype for.
https://imgur.com/X1DEWMI

So no impacts on Barbados then?

I can't tell you there won't be any for sure. There still is always the chance of very heavy rain reguardless which always comes with a chance of flash flooding and landslides on many of those mountainous islands. I would not disreguard this system even if it doesn't form into a tropical system for you guys.

Speaking of which, the storm is now producing pink tops so this should REALLY be a sign it's doing some work.

[chaser1]

I think it looks considerably worse than it did a few hours ago, and I said its pretty looks were deceptive even then. For a tropical cyclone to go, as we all know, it has to have an MLC and LLC stacked. The overall LLC has lost not only deep convection but even most clouds. We know it's still there by continuity, but it looks very unlikely to generate an MLC. There's an MLC candidate out in front, but it's not all that impressive, and it would have to vent a lot of air (meaning a lot of convection it doesn't have) to pull the LLC over *because* the system is so big. (IMO, that's a lot of the reason it's hard for these big systems to form up - an offcenter MLC has a lot more work to do.) Worse, the overall LLC is pushing SAL into its intake. The back part of the system looks like a huge wave but with so-so convection. Basically I don't think any part is likely to develop before it hits the E Caribbean graveyard - just not enough time.

If it does form, it will probably be that forward MLC that does it, and the resulting system will not be all that large. Large invests often produce small systems - many is the time I've looked at some tiny new cyclone that formed out of a massive invest, and wondered "where did it all go?"

Do not be deceived by Graveyards. Things have, and DO grow there. Sometimes things you might not wish to see.....

[CM2]

Yeah just look at all the yellow tops popping up around the storm!

[hurricanes1234]

Meanwhile it seems the south western lob is really getting it's stuff together. Storm might be much smaller than everyone is giving hype for.
https://imgur.com/X1DEWMI

So no impacts on Barbados then?

I would say the chances of heavy rain could definitely be there, given that this system has a truly enormous moisture envelope. Even as far south as T&T, our Met Office has been issuing statements today updating us on its development chances, which they only do when they think an area of interest or a storm is going to impact us, either directly or indirectly. They're forecasting Wednesday and Thursday to be days of widespread rain for us, even though we're so far south, so I imagine the rain chances would be just as high, if not higher, for the islands further north.

I'm also seeing in the weather discussion on your local weather service's website that Wednesday and Thursday may have rain and possible thunderstorms.

https://www.barbadosweather.org/index.php

[Hammy]

LLC visible it looks like.

[cycloneye]

92L INVEST 200728 0000 12.4N 48.0W ATL 25 1008