ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[Kingarabian]

I also remember the GFS barely developed Irma or a model storm just before it, despite the model itself showing ideal conditions.

[Aric Dunn]

18z Euro 27 hours.

[ScottNAtlanta]

18z Euro 27 hours.

https://i.ibb.co/Dt5jJTq/Capture.png

Looks like the Euro is seeing the SW end develop rather than the north end the models have been trying to develop previously

[sma10]

18z Euro 27 hours.

https://i.ibb.co/Dt5jJTq/Capture.png

Does this differ from the Euro 12z?

[STRiZZY]

18z euro Pretty much identical at 84hrs to the 12z

[Aric Dunn]

51 hours.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like the 18z Euro is going to take another big bite out of Hispaniola. Whether this develops into a named system or not, there is a big disaster potential with it crossing Hispaniola. Large amounts of rainfall there could lead to devastating mudslides. In 2004, what was then only Tropical Storm Jeanne, created all kinds of havoc down there.

[STRiZZY]

51 hours.

https://i.ibb.co/rbCzktd/Capture.png

This continues until the end of the run. It looks like 92l wants to develop and consolidate it's circulation south of the islands but with the strongest winds to the north, once it reaches the islands the northern side of the storm gets cut of essentially. Thus is remains this open wave across the Greater Antilles. The 10m wind speed is slightly higher this run (5kts).

[St0rmTh0r]

18z Euro 27 hours.

https://i.ibb.co/Dt5jJTq/Capture.png

Looks like the Euro is seeing the SW end develop rather than the north end the models have been trying to develop previously

Some of us were discussing that SW energy earlier there are signs that it could develop

[Aric Dunn]

51 hours.

https://i.ibb.co/rbCzktd/Capture.png

This continues until the end of the run. It looks like 92l wants to develop and consolidate it's circulation south of the islands but with the strongest winds to the north, once it reaches the islands the northern side of the storm gets cut of essentially. Thus is remains this open wave across the Greater Antilles. The 10m wind speed is slightly higher this run (5kts).

Well for the most part.. we have to throw all the models runs out the door since they cant even initialize the current structure correctly.

ASCAT earlier showed an overall circular wind field with just the very inner portion having a slight elongation.

the Euro for both the 12z and 18z have a tilted hot dog from the coast of south america NE to for like a 1000 miles..

that is not what we have now.

[Blown Away]

51 hours.

https://i.ibb.co/rbCzktd/Capture.png

The Euro showing those high winds well away from the LLC, seems not believable, but when Irma passed along W coast of FL the Euro showed 100 mph winds on E Coast. It verified with 99 mph winds reported in my area, so for me I give lots of respect seeing PR getting 86 mph winds with LLC well to the South.

[HurricaneFrances04]

18Z Euro looks slightly more bullish to me compared to earlier runs. Looks like a stronger vorticity at 90 hrs right along the north coast of Cuba.

[STRiZZY]

51 hours.

https://i.ibb.co/rbCzktd/Capture.png

This continues until the end of the run. It looks like 92l wants to develop and consolidate it's circulation south of the islands but with the strongest winds to the north, once it reaches the islands the northern side of the storm gets cut of essentially. Thus is remains this open wave across the Greater Antilles. The 10m wind speed is slightly higher this run (5kts).

I went back and looked at the 10m winds from the 0z run from the 24th and the wave is slightly more south. Some of the circulation does get cut off again by PR and Hispaniola but it's able to recover as more of the energy was south of said Islands. It was then able to cruise the Caribbean and strengthen and start to emerge in the Gulf at the end of that run. The 12z on the 24th had pretty much the same track but encountered more shear and reached Yucatan Channel a sheared mess.

[Aric Dunn]

90 hours after crossing Hispaniola and eastern cuba

[CM2]

So while all the other models are weakening it, the GFS-Para has a strengthening trend. So, is the GFS-Para onto something or is it the old GFS crack baby we all love dearly?

[HurricaneFrances04]

51 hours.

https://i.ibb.co/rbCzktd/Capture.png

The Euro showing those high winds well away from the LLC, seems not believable, but when Irma passed along W coast of FL the Euro showed 100 mph winds on E Coast. It verified with 99 mph winds reported in my area, so for me I give lots of respect seeing PR getting 86 mph winds with LLC well to the South.

I think that's 86 kilometers

[Blown Away]

51 hours.

https://i.ibb.co/rbCzktd/Capture.png

The Euro showing those high winds well away from the LLC, seems not believable, but when Irma passed along W coast of FL the Euro showed 100 mph winds on E Coast. It verified with 99 mph winds reported in my area, so for me I give lots of respect seeing PR getting 86 mph winds with LLC well to the South.

I think that's 86 kilometers

Yes, good catch, my typo.

[STRiZZY]

The big question is does 92l try to consolidate the southern lobe or northern lobe. Looks like the southern side is winning the fight right now. All of the models right now have been struggling with this and develop the northern lobe.

[AutoPenalti]

I think it’s just a matter of which competing lobe develops first. The structure is just massive.

[STRiZZY]

The Euro showing those high winds well away from the LLC, seems not believable, but when Irma passed along W coast of FL the Euro showed 100 mph winds on E Coast. It verified with 99 mph winds reported in my area, so for me I give lots of respect seeing PR getting 86 mph winds with LLC well to the South.

I think that's 86 kilometers

Yes, good catch, my typo.

Also that's at 1,000mb... the 10m winds at 90hr are 37kts which is 42mph.