ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[Blown Away]

90 hours after crossing Hispaniola and eastern cuba

https://i.ibb.co/tMQr7V9/Capture.png

Is 18z a north shift? Can you post the next position?

[STRiZZY]

90 hours after crossing Hispaniola and eastern cuba

https://i.ibb.co/tMQr7V9/Capture.png

Is 18z a north shift? Can you post the next position?

18z only goes out 90hrs. Yes, it is slightly north of the 12z by a hair.

[SFLcane]

90 hours after crossing Hispaniola and eastern cuba

https://i.ibb.co/tMQr7V9/Capture.png

.

What TS intensity?

[SFLcane]

Never mind not even a closed low just a strong wave.

[HurricaneFrances04]

A few of the Euro ensemble members are a little more bullish

[Hammy]

The big question is does 92l try to consolidate the southern lobe or northern lobe. Looks like the southern side is winning the fight right now. All of the models right now have been struggling with this and develop the northern lobe.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_202007280025_3.75_19.00_-64.00_-35.25_vis1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_weathernerds.png

Progression reminds me of Gabrielle in 2013 (which shows just how completely off things were--the atmosphere essentially stayed in July and jumped straight to November later on) being large and seemingly two competing segments of the wave. Hermine in 2016 also did something similar.

90 hours after crossing Hispaniola and eastern cuba

https://i.ibb.co/tMQr7V9/Capture.png

Is it actually getting sliced in half by the Greater Antilles due to the size?

[Ubuntwo]

0z SHIPS out and it's an uptick from the bearish 18z run. Tropical storm in 24 hours, hurricane in a week.

[STRiZZY]

The big question is does 92l try to consolidate the southern lobe or northern lobe. Looks like the southern side is winning the fight right now. All of the models right now have been struggling with this and develop the northern lobe.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/GOES16_1km_ir_202007280025_3.75_19.00_-64.00_-35.25_vis1_ltng16_hgwy_warn_weathernerds.png

Progression reminds me of Gabrielle in 2013 (which shows just how completely off things were--the atmosphere essentially stayed in July and jumped straight to November later on) being large and seemingly two competing segments of the wave. Hermine in 2016 also did something similar.

90 hours after crossing Hispaniola and eastern cuba

https://i.ibb.co/tMQr7V9/Capture.png

Is it actually getting sliced in half by the Greater Antilles due to the size?

Essentially yes. If you go back to the euro's 0z run on the 24th only maybe the top 1/3rd of the storm was interacting with the GA's and it was able to recover from that and consolidate south.. Now it's being split in half with all the wind and voracity to the north of the GA's.

[gatorcane]

00Z guidance, a bit of an uptick on intensity. TVCN (model consensus) into the Bahamas:

[Blown Away]

Big stall just off SFL on 00z TVCN.

[CM2]

00Z guidance, a bit of an uptick on intensity. TVCN (model consensus) into the Bahamas:

https://i.postimg.cc/YScmxSqf/92-L-tracks-00z.png

https://i.postimg.cc/QCMBM90s/92-L-intensity-00z.png

With planes going into the storm tomorrow, the data for the storm recon should really improve model runs. For now the runs are gonna be garbage.

[HurricaneFrances04]

So 18z guidance overall slightly more bullish. Where (if) the system consolidates and possible interaction with Hispaniola still a wild card in the long term.

[STRiZZY]

Looking at the euro 12z shear maps from today the Caribbean looks much more favorable like it did on the 0z from the 24th where it blew up into an intense hurricane in the Yucatan Chanel.

If the southern lobe can consolidate I'd like to see what the Euro will pump out. In fact the last several runs of the euro look much more like the 24th's 0z run when it comes to shear in the Caribbean.

[floridasun78]

00Z guidance, a bit of an uptick on intensity. TVCN (model consensus) into the Bahamas:

https://i.postimg.cc/YScmxSqf/92-L-tracks-00z.png

https://i.postimg.cc/QCMBM90s/92-L-intensity-00z.png

With planes going into the storm tomorrow, the data for the storm recon should really improve model runs. For now the runs are gonna be garbage.

g-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE dont go out untill wed that one get data for models

[SFLcane]

0z SHIPS out and it's an uptick from the bearish 18z run. Tropical storm in 24 hours, hurricane in a week.

Useless for intensity with waves. You can use it for environment though. In this case Shear 20+ knots and RH below 50.

“ Death knell“

[STRiZZY]

Euro 18z ensembles more bullish. Few of the members are hurricanes just missing Florida.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This latest GFS makes no sense. It sees the southern lobe developing and it keeps developing , then at 36 hrs just kills it and goes with the northern half. I dont buy that at all.

[sma10]

Euro 18z ensembles more bullish. Few of the members are hurricanes just missing Florida.

Just curious Strizzy - what path do those hurricanes take? Presumably avoid Hispaniola?

[STRiZZY]

Euro 18z ensembles more bullish. Few of the members are hurricanes just missing Florida.

Just curious Strizzy - what path do those hurricanes take? Presumably avoid Hispaniola?

Correct, north of the Greater Antilles.

Of the members that miss the GA's 3 or 4 are weak and hit the keys.

2 of them hit SW FLA. One is between 1009-1000mb and one between 999-980mb.

3 of them run the length of the Bahamas and are between 979-960mb.

FWIW the majority of the members that develop anything look to miss the GA's

[Aric Dunn]

00z NAM just because ... cant be any worse than the global models at this point this year lol

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 72800&fh=0