ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#741 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:09 am

caneseddy wrote:
NotSparta wrote:
Hammy wrote:Anybody else starting to doubt the Euro? I've been checking between the models and it seems it's the only one that is developing the southern portion of the wave--despite the greatest low level spin seemingly being on the north.


At the same time, the south side has convection while the north is struggling with that. S and W has warmer SSTs so it's not a big surprise to see more convection there but it would probably favor the southern part more


To my untrained eyes it looks like the most recent runs are initializing with the southern part now. Correct me if I’m wrong


Yeah, I noticed the GFS which had been adamant on the northern portion of the wave developing didn't really do so as much on the 00z run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#742 Postby caneseddy » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:09 am

HWRf running now has a high end TS going over the Virgin Islands heading WNW
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#743 Postby caneseddy » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:10 am

caneseddy wrote:HWRf running now has a TS going over the Virgin Islands heading WNW
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#744 Postby sma10 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:10 am

Looks like the H models are saying "air - not too dry"
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#745 Postby caneseddy » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:13 am

HMON has an intensifying storm approaching the Southern Bahamas
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#746 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:16 am

Did anyone else notice the GFS having something smack into the Lousiana coast on August 9th?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#747 Postby STRiZZY » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:22 am

SoupBone wrote:Did anyone else notice the GFS having something smack into the Lousiana coast on August 9th?


Yeah I noticed that at around 300hr
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#748 Postby Hammy » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:32 am

STRiZZY wrote:
SoupBone wrote:Did anyone else notice the GFS having something smack into the Lousiana coast on August 9th?


Yeah I noticed that at around 300hr


There's a second smaller low as well in the BoC around the same time, looks like both come off of another monsoonal gyre in the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#749 Postby blp » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:38 am

caneseddy wrote:HWRf running now has a high end TS going over the Virgin Islands heading WNW


Big difference:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#750 Postby blp » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:43 am

Looks ready to take off now.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#751 Postby CM2 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:49 am


And the HMON REALLY has simply gone into orbit compared to the very last run, will be very interesting to see what the Euro has to say about this.

Also notice how the core is also much more moist in the 00z run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#752 Postby caneseddy » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:51 am



Yep intensifying hurricane heading WNW towards Andros Island
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#753 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:52 am

Ouch!

Image


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#754 Postby STRiZZY » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:53 am

Euro through 12hrs looks a little more robust. Larger wind field than the last two main runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#755 Postby caneseddy » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:53 am

GFS ensembles shift west with 2 members impacting South Florida/Keys and the majority scraping the Outer Banks or going OTS but getting very close to the Banks

Also a bit more bullish on some of the members although not terribly so
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#756 Postby CM2 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:53 am

Yeah, this type of change doesn't happen unless something radically changed with the data. You just don't go from a withering storm to a cat 2-3 in a SINGLE run.

Also should be noted if the HWRF is 100% accurate, it would be another horrible blow to the Bahamas after Dorain blew away a decent chunk of the island nation.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#757 Postby caneseddy » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:54 am

WeatherEmperor wrote:Ouch!

[url]https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200728/8d76fc867e2d2235a0 :lol: 12be58c02d89c6.jpg[/url]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Where have I seen this picture before :double:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#758 Postby STRiZZY » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:57 am

Euro is looking to develop the northern lobe again... If it does the same with tomorrow's 12z we'll probably know.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#759 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:58 am

Looks to be moving NW parallel to the FL east coast

Image


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#760 Postby STRiZZY » Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:58 am

CM2 wrote:Yeah, this type of change doesn't happen unless something radically changed with the data. You just don't go from a withering storm to a cat 2-3 in a SINGLE run.
https://imgur.com/Ssb7Xcv
Also should be noted if the HWRF is 100% accurate, it would be another horrible blow to the Bahamas after Dorain blew away a decent chunk of the island nation.


Idk lol, the HMON and HWRF can have some crazy swings between runs that far out.
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