ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#621 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:56 am

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1288093706940276737


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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#622 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:58 am

PTC at 11 AM.

92L INVEST 200728 1200 13.5N 52.8W ATL 35 1007
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#623 Postby Siker » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:04 am

cycloneye wrote:PTC at 11 AM.

92L INVEST 200728 1200 13.5N 52.8W ATL 35 1007


Does that not simply indicate an invest with TS winds? Don't they renumber for a PTC?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#624 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:04 am

What time is recon?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#625 Postby RT23 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:05 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:What time is recon?


1800z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#626 Postby tropicwatch » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:07 am

RT23 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:What time is recon?


1800z


Takes off at 1500Z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#627 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:12 am

panamatropicwatch wrote:
RT23 wrote:
Evil Jeremy wrote:What time is recon?


1800z


Takes off at 1500Z.


Thank you both. Will be a fun flight to follow.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#628 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:17 am

We're focused on tropical cyclogenesis but that track is highly dangerous regardless of development for flooding and mudslides across the Caribbean; it certainly would have been far better to have been stronger earlier and successfully stay well north, this low latitude track is substantially worse... perhaps not so much for the US, but still
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#629 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:31 am

EquusStorm wrote:We're focused on tropical cyclogenesis but that track is highly dangerous regardless of development for flooding and mudslides across the Caribbean; it certainly would have been far better to have been stronger earlier and successfully stay well north, this low latitude track is substantially worse... perhaps not so much for the US, but still


Because of the system's enormous size, virtually everyone in the Greater Antilles is going to get some potential major significant impacts for sure!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#630 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:38 am

Looks like the energy on the eastern side of this monster is where its at. Impressive amount of convection on western side but doesn't appear to be coalescing into anything at the moment. Looks like the eastern side has an llc with some convection. Euro might be on the money showing a very 'Georges-esque' track currently.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#631 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:43 am

HurricaneEnzo wrote:Looks like the energy on the eastern side of this monster is where its at. Impressive amount of convection on western side but doesn't appear to be coalescing into anything at the moment. Looks like the eastern side has an llc with some convection. Euro might be on the money showing a very 'Georges-esque' track currently.


it is not possible to be the eastern lobe.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#632 Postby NotSparta » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:44 am

Shell Mound wrote:

Didn’t the precursors to Wilma ‘05, Matthew ‘16, and/or Dorian ‘18 also feature sprawling, monsoonal circulations interacting with an AEW?

Also, I’m starting to see signs of a convergent band on the northern side that is “linking up” with the deeper convection nearer the SW lobe.


Except this time the AEW is the sprawling monsoonal circulation
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#633 Postby Vdogg » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:44 am

I swear it looks like the western lobe is moving due west while the CoC between the western and eastern lobes has a northerly component and is gaining latitude. Probably why the models are all over the map. Is this thing supposed to slow down any?
Last edited by Vdogg on Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#634 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:44 am

Image
SW side clearly dominant
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#635 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:48 am

Saved loop. Looks to be big and gradually organizing while moving quickly. Still a lot of SAL around it:

Image
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:49 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#636 Postby HurricaneEnzo » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:48 am

Aric Dunn wrote:
HurricaneEnzo wrote:Looks like the energy on the eastern side of this monster is where its at. Impressive amount of convection on western side but doesn't appear to be coalescing into anything at the moment. Looks like the eastern side has an llc with some convection. Euro might be on the money showing a very 'Georges-esque' track currently.


it is not possible to be the eastern lobe.


Sure it is possible. E Carib is gonna shred the western lobe while the eastern gains lat and takes over.

Not possible is something you don't use with weather....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#637 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:49 am

Is it possible the two lobes detach? One goes nw the other west?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#638 Postby NDG » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:50 am



But still looks elongated.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#639 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:52 am

NDG wrote:


But still looks elongated.


yeah.. but again far better than last nights ASCAT.. the western has most of the energy. eastern lobe will likely be dead soon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

#640 Postby sma10 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:52 am

gatorcane wrote:Saved loop. Looks to be big and gradually organizing while moving quickly. Still a lot of SAL around it:

https://i.postimg.cc/zBKtGCng/BC63-A42-C-B225-4-BFF-BDC6-EA1-A8-D1-B0-F48.gif


Nice image. The circulation on this system is a bit larger than Gonzalo, no?
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