ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

And there we have it ...

[wxman57]

May be fighting a good bit of shear and dry air as it nears Florida.

[USVIKimmie]

I can’t seem to find the link to the recon flight data - while they’re actually in the air. Can someone share it, please?

[wxman57]

I can’t seem to find the link to the recon flight data - while they’re actually in the air. Can someone share it, please?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[SFLcane]

May be fighting a good bit of shear and dry air as it nears Florida.

“ May “ 06z Euro has an intensifying TS in the SE Bahamas.

[Shell Mound]

May be fighting a good bit of shear and dry air as it nears Florida.

If this can strengthen within the next day and half, then that fairly weak TUTT is made to be broken. A broken TUTT is an ideal ventilator—better than “no TUTT.”

[MarioProtVI]

My forecast for this

Track hasn’t changed since my last forecast except a second US landfall near St Marks Fl and a wee bit slower

Intensity I’m inching up a bit in the long term

Now. PTC. 40mph
12hrs. TS. 45mph
24hrs. TS. 50mph
36hrs. TS. 65mph
48hrs. TS. 65mph
72hrs. TS. 60mph
96hrs. TS. 60mph
120hrs. TS. 70mph
144hrs. C1. 80mph off Palm Beach

A hurricane is a bit bullish and unlikely IMO due to unfavorable conditions later on. 60 mph peak is what I’m going for.

[wxman57]

I guess the NHC didn't mean that they'd have the advisory our a few minutes before 11 AM, they meant precisely at 11 AM...

[GCANE]

Currently on the runway, transmitting telemetry

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon ... _page=hdob

[Shell Mound]

My forecast for this

Track hasn’t changed since my last forecast except a second US landfall near St Marks Fl and a wee bit slower

Intensity I’m inching up a bit in the long term

Now. PTC. 40mph
12hrs. TS. 45mph
24hrs. TS. 50mph
36hrs. TS. 65mph
48hrs. TS. 65mph
72hrs. TS. 60mph
96hrs. TS. 60mph
120hrs. TS. 70mph
144hrs. C1. 80mph off Palm Beach

A hurricane is a bit bullish and unlikely IMO due to unfavorable conditions later on. 60 mph peak is what I’m going for.

I think there’s a higher margin of uncertainty and error than is currently being acknowledged here. Any forecast at this range is “low confidence.”

Personally, I disagree with the notion that the ceiling for 92L is low as it nears the Bahamas and the Southeastern U.S. It’s just uncertain right now.

[BobHarlem]

Well the 5 day TVCN point is inland just NW of West Palm. I'm really curious about this forecast track coming up.

[OuterBanker]

I was only aware of tomorrow’s G-IV flight.
I looked at the POD and it stated a low level today. Is that right.
If so is it in the air now?

[plasticup]

TD with TS winds? That's weird....

PTC with TS winds. It has the wind strength of a Tropical Storm without the organization.

[caneseddy]

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS
* GUADELOUPE...MARTINIQUE...AND ST. MARTIN
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTIN

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Surprisingly no warnings have been issued for Barbados

[cheezyWXguy]

My forecast for this

Track hasn’t changed since my last forecast except a second US landfall near St Marks Fl and a wee bit slower

Intensity I’m inching up a bit in the long term

Now. PTC. 40mph
12hrs. TS. 45mph
24hrs. TS. 50mph
36hrs. TS. 65mph
48hrs. TS. 65mph
72hrs. TS. 60mph
96hrs. TS. 60mph
120hrs. TS. 70mph
144hrs. C1. 80mph off Palm Beach

A hurricane is a bit bullish and unlikely IMO due to unfavorable conditions later on. 60 mph peak is what I’m going for.

I think there’s a higher margin of uncertainty and error than is currently being acknowledged here. Any forecast at this range is “low confidence.”

Personally, I disagree with the notion that the ceiling for 92L is low as it nears the Bahamas and the Southeastern U.S. It’s just uncertain right now.

This. Gfs and Canadian ensembles have a lot of members bringing this below 990mb. I don’t think the ceiling is particularly low, but I do think that the chances of reaching the ceiling are t particularly high

[aspen]

My forecast for this

Track hasn’t changed since my last forecast except a second US landfall near St Marks Fl and a wee bit slower

Intensity I’m inching up a bit in the long term

Now. PTC. 40mph
12hrs. TS. 45mph
24hrs. TS. 50mph
36hrs. TS. 65mph
48hrs. TS. 65mph
72hrs. TS. 60mph
96hrs. TS. 60mph
120hrs. TS. 70mph
144hrs. C1. 80mph off Palm Beach

A hurricane is a bit bullish and unlikely IMO due to unfavorable conditions later on. 60 mph peak is what I’m going for.

Congrats, you got it right. The NHC went for a peak leveling off at 60 mph.

[Shell Mound]

A hurricane is a bit bullish and unlikely IMO due to unfavorable conditions later on. 60 mph peak is what I’m going for.

I think there’s a higher margin of uncertainty and error than is currently being acknowledged here. Any forecast at this range is “low confidence.”

Personally, I disagree with the notion that the ceiling for 92L is low as it nears the Bahamas and the Southeastern U.S. It’s just uncertain right now.

This. Gfs and Canadian ensembles have a lot of members bringing this below 990mb. I don’t think the ceiling is particularly low, but I do think that the chances of reaching the ceiling are t particularly high

Just a reminder for everyone concerned:

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1287853738988838917




If the “bears” are wrong, the consequences in this case could be even worse.

[Mialco]

Surprisingly no warnings have been issued for Barbados

This confuses me - here in Barbados we have darkening skies... wind picking up... but nah - no warning for us!

Is it that they're still looking at the eastern side of the wave as where genesis is likely to occur and figure that we're just getting the outer bands?

[SFLcane]

Here we go!!