ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[bqknight]

Question - and sorry if this is the wrong place. What are the parallel models? Are they future upgrades in beta testing? Why or why shouldn't they be taken into account?

Thanks in advance!

[SoupBone]

Question - and sorry if this is the wrong place. What are the parallel models? Are they future upgrades in beta testing? Why or why shouldn't they be taken into account?

Thanks in advance!

Someone can probably explain it better but the GFS-Para is the GFS replacement in waiting and is currently being tested.

[bohai]

Even if the models keep it OTS but not too far off the coast, won't the shear size of the storm create massive amounts of rain onshore?

[chaser1]

Question - and sorry if this is the wrong place. What are the parallel models? Are they future upgrades in beta testing? Why or why shouldn't they be taken into account?

Thanks in advance!

Someone can probably explain it better but the GFS-Para is the GFS replacement in waiting and is currently being tested.

Explained perfectly

[Otown_Wx]

Been years since last post, so hello everyone! From Orlando and see the first cone came out and shows it coming into Florida. Is this something we should worry about meaning a MH.

[Hurricaneman]

Been years since last post, so hello everyone! From Orlando and see the first cone came out and shows it coming into Florida. Is this something we should worry about meaning a MH.

Wouldn’t worry about that as of now since no model shows that but monitor it just in case it pulls something in the Bahamas

[DestinHurricane]

Been years since last post, so hello everyone! From Orlando and see the first cone came out and shows it coming into Florida. Is this something we should worry about meaning a MH.

No, this won't become a major.

[Fancy1001]

Been years since last post, so hello everyone! From Orlando and see the first cone came out and shows it coming into Florida. Is this something we should worry about meaning a MH.

No, this won't become a major.

Never say won't, you can almost never discard the possibility of rapid intensification.

[SFLcane]

Been years since last post, so hello everyone! From Orlando and see the first cone came out and shows it coming into Florida. Is this something we should worry about meaning a MH.

With Covid around my advise a cat 1 will knock out your power. I am already prepared for an extended period of no power if it comes to that.

[SFLcane]

Most don’t understand the shortage of food and water will be insane with covid and tropical system. Prepare

[toad strangler]

Most don’t understand the shortage of food and water will be insane. Prepare

yep, I'm fortified. I could go two months and not leave my house. Hopefully, this sputters in as modeling is showing.

[chaser1]

Been years since last post, so hello everyone! From Orlando and see the first cone came out and shows it coming into Florida. Is this something we should worry about meaning a MH.

Welcome back neighbor! The fact that we're within the cone of terror lol, means that all eyes need be fixed and prep/supplies readied. I don't think conditions appear conducive for a MH but then again no models saw conditions conducive for Hanna to develop into a hurricane off Texas either. To be honest, i'd simply be concerned if a track into Florida plays out period. This might simply be a precursor of what's to come. Early tracks matter. That is actually my greatest immediate concern. For now, let's hope that a combination of land interaction, SAL, and upper level shear keep this in check. The biggest wild-card would be for a better developed tropical cyclone to develop below 15N in the Eastern Caribbean and then track WNW with a more southerly approach near Haiti/E. Cuba. That would change up timing and perhaps limit the impact of upper level shear on a still large and perhaps better developed upper anticyclone.

[chaser1]

Most don’t understand the shortage of food and water will be insane with covid and tropical system. Prepare

Boy, is THAT a fact!!!

[NDG]

The EPS has not yet finished trending slower and deeper with the shortwave trough over the past six runs, so 92L could end up tracking farther W* than Irma.

*Farther W before curving northward

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/32/1903_Atlantic_hurricane_3_track.png/440px-1903_Atlantic_hurricane_3_track.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/e/e6/1926_Miami_hurricane_track.png/440px-1926_Miami_hurricane_track.png
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d9/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane_track.png/440px-1935_Labor_Day_hurricane_track.png
All images from Wikipedia

It may get into the far eastern GOM but not that far as the first image. The EPS has been trending towards a deeper trough in the MS river valley but with still a strong Bermuda ridge to get it to threaten FL.

https://i.imgur.com/iv5n51u.gif

Well there’s that Bermuda High we haven’t seen much of this summer.

Deep Troughiness has been missing for the most part east of the US over Bermuda, which is even a bigger threat for the US & FL.

[sma10]

Been years since last post, so hello everyone! From Orlando and see the first cone came out and shows it coming into Florida. Is this something we should worry about meaning a MH.

No, this won't become a major.

Considering we have a couple models showing potential 960 pressures, this is a pretty silly thing to state categorically

[Patrick99]

Even if the models keep it OTS but not too far off the coast, won't the shear size of the storm create massive amounts of rain onshore?

For storms that miss the peninsula from this direction, not typically, unless it comes really close. I swear we get more rain from storms that are 350 miles away in the Gulf of Mexico than storms that are 75 miles away in the Atlantic.

[TheStormExpert]

It may get into the far eastern GOM but not that far as the first image. The EPS has been trending towards a deeper trough in the MS river valley but with still a strong Bermuda ridge to get it to threaten FL.

https://i.imgur.com/iv5n51u.gif

Well there’s that Bermuda High we haven’t seen much of this summer.

Deep Troughiness has been missing for the most part east of the US over Bermuda, which is even a bigger threat for the US & FL.

https://i.imgur.com/NEOlDVw.gif

I’ll definitely agree that the Bermuda High has been trying to make itself at home this month but during the mid-late Spring and June it seemed to be MIA.

[TheStormExpert]

Been years since last post, so hello everyone! From Orlando and see the first cone came out and shows it coming into Florida. Is this something we should worry about meaning a MH.

With Covid around my advise a cat 1 will knock out your power. I am already prepared for an extended period of no power if it comes to that.

Irma knocked our power out here in coastal Palm Beach County for a good 48hrs. or so and it too was equivalent of a Cat.1 hurricane for this area.

[kevin]

Here we go, the windshield wiping has started. 12z (edit: used to be 06z, thanks for the correction) ICON tries to take this into the GOM as a weak TS, scrapes the southernmost tip of Florida.

[toad strangler]

Here we go, the windshield wiping has started. 06z ICON tries to take this into the GOM as a weak TS, scrapes the southernmost tip of Florida.

https://imgur.com/x40EGll

WS wiping started many days ago