ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

WOW 65kt winds....

error

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1288109572951953411

[RT23]

WOW 65kt winds....

error

As of 16:03 UTC Jul 28, 2020:
Aircraft Position: 15.70°N 56.93°W
Bearing: 90° at 231 kt
Altitude: 3203 gpm
Peak 10-second Wind: 60 kt at 81°
Extrapolated Sea-level Pressure: 1009.3 mb

[AubreyStorm]

15:59:00Z 15.733N 57.133W 689.6 mb
(~ 20.37 inHg) 3,298 meters
(~ 10,820 feet) 1010.3 mb
(~ 29.84 inHg) - From 76° at 64 knots
(From the ENE at ~ 73.6 mph) 10.6°C
(~ 51.1°F) -1.3°C
(~ 29.7°F) 65 knots
(~ 74.8 mph)

THIS IS NOWWW?

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

WOW 65kt winds....

It was a result of the flight changing altitude, not actual measurable winds.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm finally out of a meeting and able to check out this advisory package. I must say I'm slightly surprised to see the 5 day point inland SFL and not just off the coast. Intensity forecast makes sense for a system that doesn't even have a closed core yet (Recon will tell us in a couple of hours). I'm making my basic supply run tonight. Can't be caught off guard...

[gatorcane]

I see the southern circ is becoming much more defined and circular.

way more SE inflow into it.

I would not be surprised if recon found a good well defiend llc.

Currently little to no dry air will be able to penetrate the deep moisture flux.

models are almost certainly over doing the dry air.

A system crawling in the Bahamas and across Southern Florida with an anticyclone developing on top as the GFS shows as it nears Florida is no bueno. The model is likely undergoing the intensity by a lot and overdoing the impact of dry air.

[tropicwatch]

WOW 65kt winds....

It was a result of the flight changing altitude, not actual measurable winds.

Actually they are reporting several times 60 or more knots at FL.

[Aric Dunn]

I see the southern circ is becoming much more defined and circular.

way more SE inflow into it.

I would not be surprised if recon found a good well defiend llc.

Currently little to no dry air will be able to penetrate the deep moisture flux.

models are almost certainly over doing the dry air.

A system crawling in the Bahamas and across Southern Florida with an anticyclone developing on top as the GFS shows as it nears Florida is no bueno. The model is likely undergoing the intensity by a lot and overdoing the impact of dry air.

same thing just happened with Gonzalo and HANA. and pretty all the systems this year out preformed the Global models.

[Vdogg]

Are....are the blobs trying to join back up? Someone tell me I'm seeing things, but it looks like they're trying to consolidate back around the initial CoC... If that happens, this storm will be massive.

[SFLcane]

Aric, what is recon finding?

[ColdMiser123]

WOW 65kt winds....

It was a result of the flight changing altitude, not actual measurable winds.

Actually they are reporting several times 60 or more knots at FL.

Yeah, there are several >60 KT FL observations with the FL pressure not changing significantly:

160000 1544N 05706W 6963 03207 0090 +110 +018 078063 063 /// /// 03
160030 1544N 05704W 6964 03207 0090 +111 +022 079063 064 /// /// 03
160100 1543N 05703W 6963 03207 0085 +110 +023 079063 064 /// /// 03
160130 1543N 05702W 6963 03205 0089 +109 +029 079061 063 /// /// 03
160200 1543N 05700W 6964 03205 0094 +104 +040 080060 061 /// /// 03
160230 1542N 05659W 6967 03201 0088 +109 +039 079061 063 /// /// 03

[AutoPenalti]

You just have GOT to love the Atlantic

[AutoPenalti]

Are....are the blobs trying to join back up? Someone tell me I'm seeing things, but it looks like they're trying to consolidate back around the initial CoC... If that happens, this storm will be massive.

No, there's two competing lobes.

[DestinHurricane]

It was a result of the flight changing altitude, not actual measurable winds.

Actually they are reporting several times 60 or more knots at FL.

Yeah, there are several >60 KT FL observations with the FL pressure not changing significantly:

160000 1544N 05706W 6963 03207 0090 +110 +018 078063 063 /// /// 03
160030 1544N 05704W 6964 03207 0090 +111 +022 079063 064 /// /// 03
160100 1543N 05703W 6963 03207 0085 +110 +023 079063 064 /// /// 03
160130 1543N 05702W 6963 03205 0089 +109 +029 079061 063 /// /// 03
160200 1543N 05700W 6964 03205 0094 +104 +040 080060 061 /// /// 03
160230 1542N 05659W 6967 03201 0088 +109 +039 079061 063 /// /// 03

Possibly some kind of equipment malfunction?

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1288145789542445056

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, what is recon finding?

well now that they are at operational they are finding plenty of TS force winds.

so once they close off the center here shortly. we should see Isaias

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

It was a result of the flight changing altitude, not actual measurable winds.

Actually they are reporting several times 60 or more knots at FL.

Yeah, there are several >60 KT FL observations with the FL pressure not changing significantly:

160000 1544N 05706W 6963 03207 0090 +110 +018 078063 063 /// /// 03
160030 1544N 05704W 6964 03207 0090 +111 +022 079063 064 /// /// 03
160100 1543N 05703W 6963 03207 0085 +110 +023 079063 064 /// /// 03
160130 1543N 05702W 6963 03205 0089 +109 +029 079061 063 /// /// 03
160200 1543N 05700W 6964 03205 0094 +104 +040 080060 061 /// /// 03
160230 1542N 05659W 6967 03201 0088 +109 +039 079061 063 /// /// 03

To be fair, I made my original post when it was actually descending and "reporting" flight-level winds at like 75kt. Now, with altitude stabilized, that trend of 60kt flight-level winds is concerning, to say the least (assuming it is accurate).

I don't like what those winds are implying nonetheless.

[Sciencerocks]

Smells a little bit like Irene 2011 in some ways...Nearly the same position and has a east coast trough. The gfs, cmc and some other global models have been showing the east coast. The vast majority of the models show east of the nhc track...

[Hurricaneman]

Maybe a 60 mph Tropical Storm at 2 pm

That sure will throw a monkey wrench into the forecast, if true I would forecast a hurricane at some point