ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tiger_deF]

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1288145789542445056

I don't really understand what he means, is he saying that the disturbance itself is actually composed of SAL?

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1288148242912415745

It was a result of the flight changing altitude, not actual measurable winds.

Actually they are reporting several times 60 or more knots at FL.

Yeah, there are several >60 KT FL observations with the FL pressure not changing significantly:

160000 1544N 05706W 6963 03207 0090 +110 +018 078063 063 /// /// 03
160030 1544N 05704W 6964 03207 0090 +111 +022 079063 064 /// /// 03
160100 1543N 05703W 6963 03207 0085 +110 +023 079063 064 /// /// 03
160130 1543N 05702W 6963 03205 0089 +109 +029 079061 063 /// /// 03
160200 1543N 05700W 6964 03205 0094 +104 +040 080060 061 /// /// 03
160230 1542N 05659W 6967 03201 0088 +109 +039 079061 063 /// /// 03

[Hd444]

Aric, what is recon finding?

well now that they are at operational they are finding plenty of TS force winds.

so once they close off the center here shortly. we should see Isaias

Not going to form for another day or 2. This is environmental trade winds.

[TheStormExpert]

Smells a little bit like Irene 2011 in some ways...Nearly the same position and has a east coast trough. The gfs, cmc and some other global models have been showing the east coast. The vast majority of the models show east of the nhc track...

What are you talking about? Most of the reliable global models especially the GFS have trended west since yesterday. If you saw NDG said there’s been a lack of an East Coast trough and more ridging. Intensity is HIGHLY up in the air but a track further south and west rather than north and East seems more likely.

[AutoPenalti]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1288148242912415745

Actually they are reporting several times 60 or more knots at FL.

Yeah, there are several >60 KT FL observations with the FL pressure not changing significantly:

160000 1544N 05706W 6963 03207 0090 +110 +018 078063 063 /// /// 03
160030 1544N 05704W 6964 03207 0090 +111 +022 079063 064 /// /// 03
160100 1543N 05703W 6963 03207 0085 +110 +023 079063 064 /// /// 03
160130 1543N 05702W 6963 03205 0089 +109 +029 079061 063 /// /// 03
160200 1543N 05700W 6964 03205 0094 +104 +040 080060 061 /// /// 03
160230 1542N 05659W 6967 03201 0088 +109 +039 079061 063 /// /// 03

Which is expected when it's so elongated.

[Evil Jeremy]

Maybe a 60 mph Tropical Storm at 2 pm

That sure will throw a monkey wrench into the forecast, if true I would forecast a hurricane at some point

If so, I suspect Hurricane Watches will be issued for the Caribbean

[Aric Dunn]

The NE Lobe is fully exposed now and stretching out.. it will be dead soon.

low level SE inflow into the Sw circ is increasing steadily.

should see a TS today.

[Hd444]

Maybe a 60 mph Tropical Storm at 2 pm

That sure will throw a monkey wrench into the forecast, if true I would forecast a hurricane at some point

If so, I suspect Hurricane Watches will be issued for the Caribbean

This is trade winds, it has notthing to do with the system, its an elongated mess right now.

[BYG Jacob]

Aric, what is recon finding?

well now that they are at operational they are finding plenty of TS force winds.

so once they close off the center here shortly. we should see Isaias

Not going to form for another day or 2. This is environmental trade winds.

Gonna need you to source that

[AutoPenalti]

Maybe a 60 mph Tropical Storm at 2 pm

That sure will throw a monkey wrench into the forecast, if true I would forecast a hurricane at some point

If so, I suspect Hurricane Watches will be issued for the Caribbean

This is trade winds, it has notthing to do with the system, its an elongated mess right now.

I don't think these are trade winds...

[Ritzcraker]

The NE Lobe is fully exposed now and stretching out.. it will be dead soon.

low level SE inflow into the Sw circ is increasing steadily.

should see a TS today.

Do you think we may see a Caribbean cruiser/Gulf threat given that the SW lobe is taking over?

[ColdMiser123]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1288148242912415745

Actually they are reporting several times 60 or more knots at FL.

Yeah, there are several >60 KT FL observations with the FL pressure not changing significantly:

160000 1544N 05706W 6963 03207 0090 +110 +018 078063 063 /// /// 03
160030 1544N 05704W 6964 03207 0090 +111 +022 079063 064 /// /// 03
160100 1543N 05703W 6963 03207 0085 +110 +023 079063 064 /// /// 03
160130 1543N 05702W 6963 03205 0089 +109 +029 079061 063 /// /// 03
160200 1543N 05700W 6964 03205 0094 +104 +040 080060 061 /// /// 03
160230 1542N 05659W 6967 03201 0088 +109 +039 079061 063 /// /// 03

These winds are definitely real due to that sharp height gradient to the north, but the normal conversion factor of 0.9 from winds at 700 hPa to the surface also likely doesn't apply here for an elongated, not well defined low level circulation.

[Kazmit]

I'm shocked that recon is finding upper-level TS winds with the way it looks on satellite.

[Aric Dunn]

The NE Lobe is fully exposed now and stretching out.. it will be dead soon.

low level SE inflow into the Sw circ is increasing steadily.

should see a TS today.

Do you think we may see a Caribbean cruiser/Gulf threat given that the SW lobe is taking over?

Not likely going too deep into the carrib..

[lhpfish]

It needs to start moving WNW soon?

[aspen]

Well this is an entertaining recon flight to say the least.

[StPeteMike]

I'm shocked that recon is finding upper-level TS winds with the way it looks on satellite.

We have seen storms that look pretty impressive but are actually weak and vice versa. Like they say, never judge a book by its cover.

[supercane4867]

Those flight level winds are not translating to the surface. They are unrepresentative of the storm intensity.

[Aric Dunn]

A little elongated still but far better than even earlier. with the southern area becoming more defiend. nothing to the NE.

Should be plenty for an upgrade. especially since it continues to improve to the SW>

[drezee]

They not flying into the convection. The need to head south....