ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[SFLcane]

Where’s the dry air the HWRF was forecasting within 72hrs?

Hurricane 987mb near Cuba. RH looks good thus far through 50hrs

Yikes. Add 4mb for correction and that’s a Cat 1.

983mb through 57hrs heading w-wnw.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF is taking the classic Cape Verde stair step track through the Bahamas and towards South Florida. I've seen this so many times over the course of my life.

[AutoPenalti]

Hurricane 987mb near Cuba. RH looks good thus far through 50hrs

Yikes. Add 4mb for correction and that’s a Cat 1.

983mb through 57hrs heading w-wnw.

978mb... WNW about to enter Andros

[SFLcane]

978 mb through 66hrs still heading w-wnw

[aspen]

CMC has definitely started to shift west like the GFS and ECMWF. Half of its 12z ensembles get PTC-9 into the eastern Gulf or the Keys.

[supercane4867]

If it strengthens that much as the HWRF predicts it will likely turn north before reaching Florida unless the ridge extends westward.

[ColdMiser123]

From this morning's SHIPS, but a few interesting things I noticed:


----------------------
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 47 51 56 61 70 68 66 64 65 64 66 67 73 73
V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 47 51 56 61 62 46 47 44 46 44 47 48 54 54
V (KT) LGEM 35 39 44 48 52 58 61 64 44 44 44 46 50 56 64 73 82
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 11 5 3 6 9 6 8 10 13 10 8 6 7 2 8 10 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 1 1 3 8 6 3 5 2 4 3 1 0 -1 -3
------------------------


Shear is not nearly as high as what was being shown a few days ago. This may be due to a combination of the SW lobe taking over, and a resultant farther west solution at a sooner time.


------------------------
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 34% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 25.0% 15.3% 10.9% 9.7% 13.0% 34.3% 54.8%
Logistic: 7.5% 28.4% 16.7% 3.5% 1.1% 6.8% 13.6% 17.7%
Bayesian: 8.2% 21.9% 9.6% 1.2% 0.7% 12.4% 51.7% 29.3%
Consensus: 7.6% 25.1% 13.9% 5.2% 3.8% 10.7% 33.2% 33.9%
--------------------------



Also very aggressive with rapid intensification probabilities going forward. One limiting factor that is still present is 50-60% relative humidities in the mid-levels. However, a larger circulation like with PTC 9 should be able to fend this off more compared to a smaller system like Gonzalo.

[kevin]

12z CMC, tries to recurve but not early enough to prevent a Florida landfall @114hrs with a 993 mbar pressure.

[kevin]

HWRF down to 974 mbar at 78 hours.

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF is faster & much stronger than previous runs.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF, 84 hours, 973MB and 85 knot 10M winds.

[supercane4867]

Meanwhile HMON has a sheared mess into the Bahamas.

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF is puzzling me right now. It’s a lot faster and stronger, it has to feel the shortwave at some point.

[Evil Jeremy]

HWRF is puzzling me right now. It’s a lot faster and stronger, it has to feel the shortwave at some point.

It's worth pointing out that HWRF is also further North (more significantly so over the preceding 18z and 00z runs, just a bit more N of the 06z run) than it's other recent cycles. Though 84 hours.

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF 969MB heading towards Andros

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF, 90 hours, 969MB, 100 knot 10M winds, just east of Andros Island moving WNW

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Meanwhile HMON has a sheared mess into the Bahamas.

Worth noting the HMON still makes this a hurricane in the Bahamas before weakening.

[WeatherEmperor]

The 12z Navgem on its closest approach to Florida beforing turninf towards the Carolinas




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[Aric Dunn]

if any system crosses Andros it is pretty difficult to miss florida at that point.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS ensembles miss Florida to the east on a recurve, at least the stronger ones do