ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#961 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:05 pm

Image

12z HWRF-P...
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#962 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:07 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:12z Euro is running...


Running right into Hispaniola
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#963 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:09 pm

The 12z Euro at 72 hours

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#964 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:09 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:12z Euro is running...


Running right into Hispaniola


Slightly N of Hispaniola compared to 00z... Typically don't see big swings in 0-96 hours from the King, subtle is what to watch...
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#965 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:11 pm

Euro still keeping that ridging extended farther west then all the other models. and the Phnatom Trough stretches out without much diging.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#966 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:13 pm

:uarrow: Yes, EURO has it brushing the north coast of Hispanolia
that run.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#967 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:14 pm

Quick question: Tropical Todbits shows HWRF and HWRF Parallel. Is the parallel supposed to replace the regular HWRF? I thought this new experimental HFOS or whatever its called was supposed to replace HWRF???


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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#968 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:14 pm

Looks like it's riding the north coast of Cuba
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#969 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:16 pm

Euro at 96hr

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#970 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:16 pm

Euro trying to do an IRMA on us :P
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#971 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:16 pm

Euro at least starts developing it.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#972 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:17 pm

:uarrow: Alsi note the narrow ridge extending across Florida into the Eastern GOM this run. EURO, if correct with this run, would have PTC 9/Isaias get into the Gulf before turning poleward.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#973 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:18 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/mnusG8D.gif

12z HWRF-P...

You posted the 0z run.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#974 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:19 pm

Image
12z EURO...At 96 hours, slightly N of 00z which allows less Cuba interaction and likely allows better organization... Should begin NW turn now.
Last edited by Blown Away on Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#975 Postby TallyTracker » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:20 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/mnusG8D.gif

12z HWRF-P...


That looks like a very reasonable run for the HWRF. Sometimes I feel like it overdoes the intensity particularly early on in a system’s development. Tropical Storm for the islands with slow intensification before quickly intensifying to a formidable hurricane over the Gulf Stream near Florida.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#976 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:23 pm

HWRF-Para 12z

Image
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
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ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#977 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:23 pm

Euro is bound and determined to take this to the GOM. It'd be nice to say we have a consensus at 96 hours but the Euro is throwing a wrench into that. Actually, it is probably the Greater Antilles that is throwing a wrench in that. As I said earlier, we won't know where or what until this clears Hispaniola, if it even does.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#978 Postby Evil Jeremy » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:27 pm

ECMWF is South of the 00z run through 5 days, taking this through the spine of Cuba, but that's North of yesterday's 12z run.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#979 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:29 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:Euro at least starts developing it.

I feel like it would’ve developed it much more this run hadn’t it run across Hispaniola and Cuba.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#980 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 28, 2020 1:35 pm

just wait until the data come back from recon and the center is location ESE of barbados.. the model consensus goes bye bye later.
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