ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CM2]

thanks for everyone's analyses and opinions and updates.
But now I have a question. I have a cockatoo outside in a big aviary. think I should put him in his small cage and bring him into the house tonight? when will the wind and rain start on St. Maarten? #thingsIworryabout

According to most models, around 24 hours from now. I would just bring him in tomorrow morning

[tarheelprogrammer]

I am getting an Andrew/Katrina vibe in terms of track NOT intensity. There is ALWAYS a possibility that the storm gets to cat 5 or fizzles out before it gets to the Bahamas/SFL. Just my 2 cents.

[nativefloridian]

thanks for everyone's analyses and opinions and updates.
But now I have a question. I have a cockatoo outside in a big aviary. think I should put him in his small cage and bring him into the house tonight? when will the wind and rain start on St. Maarten? #thingsIworryabout

Ms. Bee, out of an abundance of caution I would bring your lovely bird inside for the evening. I have 2 macaws and I wouldn't leave them out in inclement weather.

[SouthFloridawx]

Just my opinion, but I was thinking something more like this.

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[Socalhurcnegirl227]

I am getting an Andrew/Katrina vibe in terms of track NOT intensity. There is ALWAYS a possibility that the storm gets to cat 5 or fizzles out before it gets to the Bahamas/SFL. Just my 2 cents.

I was literally just thinking this in my head based on how it wants to keep chugging west.

[DestinHurricane]

I am getting an Andrew/Katrina vibe in terms of track NOT intensity. There is ALWAYS a possibility that the storm gets to cat 5 or fizzles out before it gets to the Bahamas/SFL. Just my 2 cents.

I don't think it will make a left turn and hit SFL at a 90 degree angle from due E like Andrew and Katrina. I think if it hits S FL it will be from the SSE.

[wzrgirl1]

For the reconnaissance data I am able to figure out most of it including directional heading, coordinates, wind speeds, etc. however does anyone have a link to a more detailed description. Thanks!

https://www.ofcm.gov/publications/nhop/2020_nhop.pdf

Page 134 has a decoder for the data recon puts out.

Thank you so much.

[GCANE]

Pressure dropping as they head SW

[GCANE]

[chris_fit]

Still no signs of a W wind

[CM2]

https://i.imgur.com/U3rz828.png

https://i.imgur.com/MgEPH79.png

Just look at this! You mean to tell me models STILL don't respect the southwestern lob as a tropical system in some capacity?

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.imgur.com/U3rz828.png

https://i.imgur.com/MgEPH79.png

Just look at this! You mean to tell me models STILL don't respect the southwestern lob as a tropical system in some capacity?

nope not completely

[HurricaneEnzo]

I'm still on team east blob despite the earlier recon. The area of the western blob where there appears to be rotation is diving slightly south of due west its days are numbered. Earlier was a minor setback for a major comeback for east blob.

[CM2]

I'm still on team east blob despite the earlier recon. The area of the western blob where there appears to be rotation is diving slightly south of due west. Earlier was a minor setback for a major comeback for east blob.

I am a die hard western blob fan! GO WESTERN BLOB!

[Aric Dunn]

I'm still on team east blob despite the earlier recon. The area of the western blob where there appears to be rotation is diving slightly south of due west. Earlier was a minor setback for a major comeback for east blob.

the current motion is expected.

[WeatherEmperor]

Some models auch as the GFS and Canadian look to have initialized the southern portion so maybe the models get it afterall?




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[HurricaneEnzo]

I'm still on team east blob despite the earlier recon. The area of the western blob where there appears to be rotation is diving slightly south of due west. Earlier was a minor setback for a major comeback for east blob.

the current motion is expected.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

It has a one way plane ticket to SA. East blob shall overcome lol

[DestinHurricane]

Some models auch as the GFS and Canadian look to have initialized the southern portion so maybe the models get it afterall?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200728/0c252943c37f4b672eb60a920da7eea2.gif


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Remarkably tight consensus.

[AnnularCane]

Sorry for being a little out of the loop but...

Earlier in this thread I saw people saying this system’s large size would give it an edge on surviving the dry air around it.

However in an active storm thread last year (don’t remember which one) 1900hurricane said that larger systems have a tendency to draw in dry air from far away and damage themselves with that.

So...do smaller or larger systems have an advantage when it comes to surviving dry air, or does it depend on the situation?

I'd kind of like to know this too so I hope nobody minds if I bump this.

[HurricaneEnzo]

East blob also has a nice moisture feed coming its way from the South. Team East blob

https://tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satloop ... t=vis-swir